Analysis of European and UK Business Cycles and Shocks

Analysis of European and UK Business Cycles and Shocks
Author: Michael J. Artis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2003
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN: 9780118490030

This publication is part of a set of 18 documents which have been prepared by H.M. Treasury to inform the assessment of the Government's five economic tests for Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) entry into the euro area. In relation to the first test, this study presents a literature review regarding convergence tests based on business cycle and shock correlations, updating some previous work. Aspects considered include: what is meant by convergence, and the role of business cycle measurement and the identification of shocks in this context; UK convergence with the euro area, the EU and some of the principal member states; 'UK idiosyncrasy' which involves comparisons between the UK experience compared to Europe and the United States; and the optimal currency area (OCA) theory.

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-01-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484338782

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Regional Convergence in the European Union

Regional Convergence in the European Union
Author: Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 366
Release: 2013-03-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3662047888

The introduction of the single currency in the European economic space constitutes without doubt the most visible step towards monetary and economic integration in the EU. Those who boosted the birth of the Common Market in 1957 dreamt that this would one day come about as a logical consequence of the integration process. However, things have gone much more slowly than possibly imagined, although if taken in an adequate historic perspective, it is undeniable that the agreements that have led to European Monetary Union signify a really formidable jump in the process of political and economic integration in Europe. This is something many doubted would ever happen, but which is already a reality, although still in need of a period of consolidation. The most general economic consequences of the EMU have already been analysed in considerable depth. Proof of this is the literature already available. In general, there is coincidence in affirming that the balance of the results expected is clearly positive. Firstly, as a result of the anticipated gains in efficiency, a consequence of reduction of transaction costs associated to the previous existence of different currencies and of the elimination of exchange rate uncertainties.

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration
Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2012-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3790828556

This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

Will Business Cycles in the Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey of Empirical Research

Will Business Cycles in the Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey of Empirical Research
Author: Jakob de Haan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.

Europe and the Euro

Europe and the Euro
Author: Alberto Alesina
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 477
Release: 2010-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226012859

It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.

Global Business Cycles

Global Business Cycles
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2008-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451870019

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.