Evolving U.S. Inflation Dynamics

Evolving U.S. Inflation Dynamics
Author: Joseph H. Davis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

Inflation is a fundamental macroeconomic risk factor for a broad range of asset classes. Since the 1980s, global inflation has generally trended lower and inflation shocks have become less persistent despite, at times, considerable commodity-price volatility. Will this lower inflation trend persist in the face of potential secular inflationary forces? In this paper, we document the evolving dynamics of the U.S. inflation process. We attribute the profound changes in U.S. inflation persistence to more effective and credible monetary policy, rather than from quot;globalizationquot; or other structural changes in the economy. Our empirical analysis implies that a low and more stable inflation environment is highly likely to persist going forward, conditional on appropriate monetary policy. We then discuss the potential implications for future short-term interest rates, long-duration bonds, and inflation-hedging instruments.

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence
Author: Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2018-12-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148439223X

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

US Inflation Dynamics on Long Range Data

US Inflation Dynamics on Long Range Data
Author: Vasilios Plakandaras
Publisher:
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we evaluate inflation persistence in the U.S. using long range monthly and annual data. The importance of inflation persistence is crucial to policy authorities and market participants, since the level of inflation persistence provides an indication on the susceptibility of the economy to exogenous shocks. Departing from classic econometric approaches found in the relevant literature, we evaluate inflation persistence through the nonparametric Hurst exponent within both a global and a rolling window framework. Moreover, we expand our analysis to detect the potential existence of chaos in the data generating process, in order to enhance the robustness of our conclusions. Overall, we find that inflation persistence is high from 1775 to 2013 for the annual dataset and from February 1876 to May 2014 in monthly frequency, respectively. Especially from the monthly dataset, the rolling window approach allows us to derive that inflation persistence has reached to historically high levels in the post Bretton Woods period and remained there ever since.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Evolving Inflation Dynamics

Evolving Inflation Dynamics
Author: Gregory Gadzinski
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper carries out another evaluation on a highly debated property of inflation dynamics, namely its persistence. We study inflation dynamics for the United States since 1959 with a time-varying methodology where the intercept, variance and persistence are allowed to vary over time. We witness some permanent changes in these three parameters, with remarkably low end-of-sample estimates for inflation persistence.

Inflation Dynamics

Inflation Dynamics
Author: Emanuele Franceschi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

The dissertation focuses on the interplay of monetary policy, liquidity, and inflation dynamics from an empirical and theoritical point of view. The first chapter empirically investigates the role of financial liquidity in the monetary policy history of the US Federal Reserve Bank, It combines real-time data and Markov switching models to reproduce the Fed's information set and studies regime changes. A liquidity augmented Taylor rule fits well the US data, but its estimates also contrasts the consensus on destabilising passive policy stances: passive regimes coexists with moderate inflation after controlling for liquidity. The second chapter extends a simple NKDSGE model to account for liquid assets. The central bank sets total nominal liquidity and targets interest rates on liquid assets. Passive reactions to expected inflation do not trigger indeterminacy, but entail more persistent and volatile inflation. Moreover, passive policies slow down the recovery from a recession. The third chapter investigates how inflation persistence varied over time in the US macroeconomy. It adapts deep-learning methods besides more standard ones, to address this question, and consistently finds the inflation inertia has significantly decreased from its peak around 1995. Inflation currently behaves similarly to a memoryless white noise. Policy changes, international trade, or volatile commodities do not seem to determine such decrease, which predates all of those.