The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures

The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures
Author: Narasimhan Jegadeesh
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2000
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper considers an equilibrium model of the term structure that is determined by two stochastic factors: a short term interest rate and a target level to which the short rate is expected to revert. A Kalman filter technique that uses a time series, cross-section of Eurodollar futures prices is developed to estimate the parameters of the model. The term structures of spot LIBOR and Eurodollar futures volatility are compared to that predicted by the model. The empirical results indicate that the two factor specification represents a significant improvement over its one factor version.

Information in the Term Structure of Libor Interest Rates

Information in the Term Structure of Libor Interest Rates
Author: Robert Brooks
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

Using Eurodollar futures prices to assess information in the term structure of interest rates we find that Eurodollar futures rates have power to forecast period profits in the Eurodollar futures market (based on LIBOR). The more interesting discovery is that short-term implied futures rates have very little power in forecasting future changes in spot rates in the Eurodollar futures market. Instead, evidence in our regressions suggests that information in the term structure of LIBOR is contained in the longer maturity Eurodollar futures contracts.

Term Structure and Volatility

Term Structure and Volatility
Author: Ruslan Bikbov
Publisher:
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

We evaluate the ability of several affine models to explain the term structure of the interest rates and option prices. Since the key distinguishing characteristic of the affine models is the specification of conditional volatility of the factors, we explore models which have critical differences in this respect: Gaussian (constant volatility), stochastic volatility, and unspanned stochastic volatility models. We estimate the models based on the Eurodollar futures and options data. We find that both Gaussian and stochastic volatility models, despite the differences in the specifications, do a great job matching the conditional mean and volatility of the term structure. When these models are estimated using options data, their properties change, and they are more successful in pricing options and matching higher moments of the term structure distribution. The unspanned stochastic volatility (USV) model fails to resolve the tension between the futures and options fits. Unresolved tension in the fits points to additional factors or, even more likely, jumps, as ways to improve the performance of the models. Our results indicate that Gaussian and stochastic volatility models cannot be distinguished based on the yield curve dynamics alone. Options data are helpful in identifying the differences. In particular, Gaussian models cannot explain the relationship between implied volatilities and the term structure observed in the data.

Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework

Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework
Author: Wolfgang Lemke
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2005-12-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540283447

This book has been prepared during my work as a research assistant at the Institute for Statistics and Econometrics of the Economics Department at the University of Bielefeld, Germany. It was accepted as a Ph.D. thesis titled "Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework" at the Department of Economics of the University of Bielefeld in November 2004. It is a pleasure for me to thank all those people who have been helpful in one way or another during the completion of this work. First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to my advisor Professor Joachim Frohn, not only for his guidance and advice throughout the com pletion of my thesis but also for letting me have four very enjoyable years teaching and researching at the Institute for Statistics and Econometrics. I am also grateful to my second advisor Professor Willi Semmler. The project I worked on in one of his seminars in 1999 can really be seen as a starting point for my research on state space models. I thank Professor Thomas Braun for joining the committee for my oral examination.

Handbook of Financial Econometrics

Handbook of Financial Econometrics
Author: Yacine Ait-Sahalia
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 809
Release: 2009-10-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080929842

This collection of original articles—8 years in the making—shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume. - Presents a broad survey of current research—from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activity - Contributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometricians - Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections

Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics

Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics
Author: Siem Jan Koopman
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 389
Release: 2015
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199683662

Presents original and up-to-date studies in unobserved components (UC) time series models from both theoretical and methodological perspectives.