The Bayesian Approach to Recursive State Estimation

The Bayesian Approach to Recursive State Estimation
Author: Stuart Charles Kramer
Publisher:
Total Pages: 268
Release: 1985
Genre: Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN:

In Bayesian estimation, the objective is to calculate the complete density function for an unknown quantity conditioned on noisy observations of that quantity. This work considers recursive estimation of a nonlinear discrete-time system state using successive observations. The formal recursion for the density function is easily written, but generally there is no closed form solution. The numerical solution proposed here is obtained by modifying the recursion and using a simple piece-wise constant approximation to the density functions. The critical part of the algorithm then becomes a discrete linear convolution that can be realized using FFT's. Keywords: error analysis; and parameter estimation.

Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing

Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing
Author: Simo Särkkä
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 255
Release: 2013-09-05
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 110703065X

A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.

Recursive Bayesian Methods for Sequential Parameter-state Estimation

Recursive Bayesian Methods for Sequential Parameter-state Estimation
Author: Yinan Huang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

A central theme in applied and computational statistics is the accurate and efficient methods of inference. The Bayesian paradigm performs inference based on the posterior distribution of unknown quantities. Throughout decades, there has been an enormous literature on computational Bayesian methods. Practical implementations, while succussful to different degrees, usually impose certain restrictions on the specific model structure. As more applications rely on complex model dynamics, more challenges remain to tackle the curse of high dimensionality and the analytical intractability of many non-Gaussian distributions. This thesis builds on existing research in the field of sequential Bayesian estimation for a general class of state-space models. We establish recursive Bayesian simulation algorithms to estimate parameters and states for a variety of diffusion and jump stochastic models. Our main work and contribution are two-fold. First, we build a particle filter framework for Levy-type state-space models. Particle filters are efficient numerical simulation techniques ideally suitable for highly nonlinear models, with a significant computational advantage over the standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our particle filters can effectively estimate parameters and state variables for non-Gaussian dynamics. We perform empirical testing on financial time series, and find that certain Levy-type small jump processes can be a substitute of the usual Brownian motion-based random walk models. In addition, we propose a general Variational Bayes Particle Filter framework. It is applicable to a wider class of models with a large number of dimensions. Secondly, we build a Variational Bayes estimator for Hidden Markov Models with observational jumps. This is a typical setup for numerous biostatistical data analysis, where huge amounts of streaming data need to be sequentially filtered for potential evidence of the existence of quantitative traits or genetic features. Our algorithm works to identify and classify different responses. The hidden Markov estimator is robust and highly adaptable. In addition, this thesis also includes a self-contained chapter on the technique of Markovian projection. It reduces a complicated multi-dimensional dynamics to a one-dimensional simple Markovian process with identical marginal distributions, therefore keeping certain path-independent expectation values invariant. The projection has certain implications in the pricing of European-style options in financial mathematics. We provide a theorem generalizing existing results to the general Levy jump models, and discuss calibration issues.

Stochastic Processes and Filtering Theory

Stochastic Processes and Filtering Theory
Author: Andrew H. Jazwinski
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Total Pages: 404
Release: 2013-04-15
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0486318192

This unified treatment of linear and nonlinear filtering theory presents material previously available only in journals, and in terms accessible to engineering students. Its sole prerequisites are advanced calculus, the theory of ordinary differential equations, and matrix analysis. Although theory is emphasized, the text discusses numerous practical applications as well. Taking the state-space approach to filtering, this text models dynamical systems by finite-dimensional Markov processes, outputs of stochastic difference, and differential equations. Starting with background material on probability theory and stochastic processes, the author introduces and defines the problems of filtering, prediction, and smoothing. He presents the mathematical solutions to nonlinear filtering problems, and he specializes the nonlinear theory to linear problems. The final chapters deal with applications, addressing the development of approximate nonlinear filters, and presenting a critical analysis of their performance.

State Estimation for Robotics

State Estimation for Robotics
Author: Timothy D. Barfoot
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 381
Release: 2017-07-31
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1107159393

A modern look at state estimation, targeted at students and practitioners of robotics, with emphasis on three-dimensional applications.

State Estimation for Robotics

State Estimation for Robotics
Author: Timothy D. Barfoot
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 532
Release: 2024-01-31
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 100929993X

A key aspect of robotics today is estimating the state (e.g., position and orientation) of a robot, based on noisy sensor data. This book targets students and practitioners of robotics by presenting classical state estimation methods (e.g., the Kalman filter) but also important modern topics such as batch estimation, Bayes filter, sigmapoint and particle filters, robust estimation for outlier rejection, and continuous-time trajectory estimation and its connection to Gaussian-process regression. Since most robots operate in a three-dimensional world, common sensor models (e.g., camera, laser rangefinder) are provided followed by practical advice on how to carry out state estimation for rotational state variables. The book covers robotic applications such as point-cloud alignment, pose-graph relaxation, bundle adjustment, and simultaneous localization and mapping. Highlights of this expanded second edition include a new chapter on variational inference, a new section on inertial navigation, more introductory material on probability, and a primer on matrix calculus.

Introducing Contextual Awareness Within the State Estimation Process

Introducing Contextual Awareness Within the State Estimation Process
Author: Alexandre Ravet
Publisher:
Total Pages: 193
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Prevalent approaches for endowing robots with autonomous navigation capabilities require the estimation of a system state representation based on sensor noisy information. This system state usually depicts a set of dynamic variables such as the position, velocity and orientation required for the robot to achieve a task. In robotics, and in many other contexts, research efforts on state estimation converged towards the popular Bayes filter. The primary reason for the success of Bayes filtering is its simplicity, from the mathematical tools required by the recursive filtering equations, to the light and intuitive system representation provided by the underlying Hidden Markov Model. Recursive filtering also provides the most common and reliable method for real-time state estimation thanks to its computational efficiency. To keep low computational complexity, but also because real physical systems are not perfectly understood, and hence never faithfully represented by a model, Bayes filters usually rely on a minimum system state representation. Any unmodeled or unknown aspect of the system is then encompassed within additional noise terms. On the other hand, autonomous navigation requires robustness and adaptation capabilities regarding changing environments. This creates the need for introducing contextual awareness within the filtering process. In this thesis, we specifically focus on enhancing state estimation models for dealing with context-dependent sensor performance alterations. The issue is then to establish a practical balance between computational complexity and realistic modelling of the system through the introduction of contextual information. We investigate on achieving this balance by extending the classical Bayes filter in order to compensate for the optimistic assumptions made by modeling the system through time-homogeneous distributions, while still benefiting from the recursive filtering computational efficiency. Based on raw data provided by a set of sensors and any relevant information, we start by introducing a new context variable, while never trying to characterize a concrete context typology. Within the Bayesian framework, machine learning techniques are then used in order to automatically define a context-dependent time-heterogeneous observation distribution by introducing two additional models: a model providing observation noise predictions and a model providing observation selection rules.The investigation also concerns the impact of the training method we choose. In the context of Bayesian filtering, the model we exploit is usually trained in the generative manner. Thus, optimal parameters are those that allow the model to explain at best the data observed in the training set. On the other hand, discriminative training can implicitly help in compensating for mismodeled aspects of the system, by optimizing the model parameters with respect to the ultimate system performance, the estimate accuracy. Going deeper in the discussion, we also analyse how the training method changes the meaning of the model, and how we can properly exploit this property. Throughout the manuscript, results obtained with simulated and representative real data are presented and analysed.