The architecture of the Sudanese agricultural sector and its contribution to the economy between 1990 and 2021

The architecture of the Sudanese agricultural sector and its contribution to the economy between 1990 and 2021
Author: Alhelo, Alzaki
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2023-06-07
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

The paper reviews the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector over the last three decades (1990 through 2021) and examines the drivers of that performance. Key findings show that the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product was greater during the 1990–1999 period than during the other two decades; agricultural productivity as well was higher in that decade than in the subsequent two decades. The sector has remained a major source of employment and livelihood. During the last decade reviewed (2010–2021), the sector regained its leading position as a generator of foreign currency. Public investment in agriculture and government spending allocated to the sector were lower than in other countries in the region. Political elites have generally lacked commitment to development plans in the sector. Political developments in Sudan have disrupted more recent efforts to revitalize the sector. Climate change, as manifested in rising temperature, declining rainfall, and drought, is a substantial determinant currently affecting the sector. The paper discusses some broad recommendations for improving the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector.

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature
Author: Siddig, Khalid
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2018-09-26
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

The Agriculture of the Sudan

The Agriculture of the Sudan
Author: G. M. Craig
Publisher:
Total Pages: 496
Release: 1991
Genre: Social Science
ISBN:

This new volume provides an authoritative source of information on Sudan's agriculture up to the present. It includes detailed background on agricultural production systems in various regions of the country, as well as an overview of Sudanese vegetation, climate, hydrology, geology and other important agricultural impact systems. Twenty authors with first-hand experience and specialized knowledge of the area have written an important reference for all researchers in this field.

Current Status of Agriculture and Future Challenges in Sudan

Current Status of Agriculture and Future Challenges in Sudan
Author: Farida Mahgoub
Publisher: Nordic Africa Institute
Total Pages: 100
Release: 2014-04
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9789171067487

Urbanisation and long-lasting civil wars and conflict mean that the demographic pattern in Sudan is changing drastically. Nevertheless, 60%-80 % of Sudanese engage in subsistence agriculture. Agriculture remains a crucial sector in the economy as a major source of raw materials, food and foreign exchange. It employs the majority of the labour force, and serves as a potential vehicle for diversifying the economy. However, no rigorous studies have explained productivity in this sector in relation to food security. The situation has worsened because agriculture in particular has been neglected since the advent of oil production in the early 2000s. Moreover, Sudan's agricultural growth has been unbalanced, with the majority of irrigated agriculture concentrated in the Centre and a huge disparity in development indicators between the best- and worst-performing regions.Thus, studies show that the vast majority of Sudanese are reported to be food insecure, especially internally displaced persons and in conflict regions such as Darfur, Kordofan and other regions.

Sudan’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

Sudan’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation
Author: Diao, Xinshen
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2023-07-13
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Based on a set of economywide databases for Sudan that have detailed content on agricultural production and processing, this study diagnoses the transformation of Sudan’s agrifood system against a background of broad economic growth and transformation. Sudan’s agrifood system registered only modest GDP growth between 2011 and 2019. Moreover, little change was seen in the structure of the system over this period. The share of total employment in agriculture fell significantly, contributing to some structural change in the broad economy. However, agriculture continues to absorb almost half of Sudan’s total employment, while having the lowest labor productivity across the main economic sectors. The growth in Sudan’s agrifood system between 2011 and 2019 was mainly driven by expansion in domestic market-oriented value chains. Agrifood value chains that are focused on exportable or imported commodities remain small with below average growth. Comparing sources of future growth in Sudan’s agrifood system across ten different agrifood value chains shows that fruits, root crops, and cereals rank highest in their potential to contribute to a range of development outcomes, including reductions in poverty, improvement in diet quality, job creation, and growth in national GDP. Although the livestock ranks lower per unit of growth, it is distinct from the higher-ranked value chains in that it has a sizable impact on all four development outcomes, while as a large and established sector in Sudan even small gains in productivity can have significant impacts in absolute terms.

The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty

The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty
Author: Siddig, Khalid
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2023-08-28
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and production activities. Moreover, it disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, hence, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. In this paper, we utilize a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier modeling framework to assess the economywide implications of these disruptions of economic activity, productive resources, and livelihoods. Results reveal that the economy would shrink to nearly half its size before the war, household incomes decline by more than 40 percent in urban and rural areas, and the number of poor people increase by 1.8 million if the war continues until the end of the year. The impact would have been two thirds less should the war have ended before July 2023 and would be one third less if it would end before October 2023. This study therefore calls for rapid interventions from all relevant parties to help reach an end to the fighting.

Monitoring indicators of economic activity in Sudan amidst ongoing conflict using satellite data

Monitoring indicators of economic activity in Sudan amidst ongoing conflict using satellite data
Author: Abushama, Hala
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2023-06-06
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

The confrontation in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had persisted for months before escalating into an armed conflict on April 15th, 2023. Besides the severe humanitarian catastrophe, the war has disrupted access to power, water, health services, and banking services while also disrupting access to markets triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. The conflict has destroyed key infrastructure, constraining domestic and international trade and disrupting production activities and supply chains. In this paper, we utilize satellite data to provide a swift analysis of how the conflict has changed patterns of economic activity, which are bound to have severe implications on food security in Sudan. We also describe how remote sensing and data collection methods can be deployed to monitor economic activities amidst armed conflicts.