The Application Of Uncertainty Quantification Uq And Sensitivity Analysis Sa Methodologies To Engineering Models And Mechanical Experiments
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| Author | : Justin Matthew Hughes |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 82 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Understanding the effects of uncertainty on modeling has seen an increased focus as engineering disciplines rely more heavily on computational modeling of complex physical processes to predict system performance and make informed engineering decisions. These computational methods often use simplified models and assumptions with models calibrated using uncertain, averaged experimental data. This commonplace method ignores the effects of uncertainty on the variation of modeling output. Qualitatively, uncertainty is the possibility of error existing from experiment to experiment, from model to model, or from experiment to model. Quantitatively, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodologies seek to determine the how variable an engineering system is when subjected to variation in the factors that control it. Often performed in conjunction, sensitivity analysis (SA) methods seek to describe what model factor contributes the most to variation in model output. UQ and SA methodologies were employed in the analysis of the Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM) model for a pure aluminum, a microstructure sensitive fatigue crack growth model for polycarbonate, and the MultiStage Fatigue (MSF) model for AZ31 magnesium alloy. For the MEAM model, local uncertainty and sensitivity measures were investigated for the purpose of improving model calibrations. In polycarbonate fatigue crack growth, a Monte Carlo method is implemented in code and employed to investigate how variations in model input factors effect fatigue crack growth predictions. Lastly, in the analysis of fatigue life predictions with the MSF model for AZ31, the expected fatigue performance range due to variation in experimental parameters is investigated using both Monte Carlo Simple Random Sampling (MCSRS) methods and the estimation of first order effects indices using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method.
| Author | : Ryan G. McClarren |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 345 |
| Release | : 2018-11-23 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 3319995251 |
This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.
| Author | : Ralph C. Smith |
| Publisher | : SIAM |
| Total Pages | : 400 |
| Release | : 2013-12-02 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1611973228 |
The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.
| Author | : Flavio Canavero |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 184 |
| Release | : 2018-12-29 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 3030048705 |
This book provides an overview of state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodologies and applications, and covers a wide range of current research, future challenges and applications in various domains, such as aerospace and mechanical applications, structure health and seismic hazard, electromagnetic energy (its impact on systems and humans) and global environmental state change. Written by leading international experts from different fields, the book demonstrates the unifying property of UQ theme that can be profitably adopted to solve problems of different domains. The collection in one place of different methodologies for different applications has the great value of stimulating the cross-fertilization and alleviate the language barrier among areas sharing a common background of mathematical modeling for problem solution. The book is designed for researchers, professionals and graduate students interested in quantitatively assessing the effects of uncertainties in their fields of application. The contents build upon the workshop “Uncertainty Modeling for Engineering Applications” (UMEMA 2017), held in Torino, Italy in November 2017.
| Author | : Etienne de Rocquigny |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 364 |
| Release | : 2008-09-15 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0470770740 |
Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.
| Author | : Yan Wang |
| Publisher | : Woodhead Publishing Limited |
| Total Pages | : 604 |
| Release | : 2020-03-12 |
| Genre | : Materials science |
| ISBN | : 0081029411 |
Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 144 |
| Release | : 2012-07-26 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0309256348 |
Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.
| Author | : José Eduardo Souza De Cursi |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 282 |
| Release | : 2023-10-21 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 3031470362 |
This proceedings book covers a wide range of topics related to uncertainty analysis and its application in various fields of engineering and science. It explores uncertainties in numerical simulations for soil liquefaction potential, the toughness properties of construction materials, experimental tests on cyclic liquefaction potential, and the estimation of geotechnical engineering properties for aerogenerator foundation design. Additionally, the book delves into uncertainties in concrete compressive strength, bio-inspired shape optimization using isogeometric analysis, stochastic damping in rotordynamics, and the hygro-thermal properties of raw earth building materials. It also addresses dynamic analysis with uncertainties in structural parameters, reliability-based design optimization of steel frames, and calibration methods for models with dependent parameters. The book further explores mechanical property characterization in 3D printing, stochastic analysis in computational simulations, probability distribution in branching processes, data assimilation in ocean circulation modeling, uncertainty quantification in climate prediction, and applications of uncertainty quantification in decision problems and disaster management. This comprehensive collection provides insights into the challenges and solutions related to uncertainty in various scientific and engineering contexts.
| Author | : Flavio Canavero |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : Engineering |
| ISBN | : 9783030048716 |
This book provides an overview of state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodologies and applications, and covers a wide range of current research, future challenges and applications in various domains, such as aerospace and mechanical applications, structure health and seismic hazard, electromagnetic energy (its impact on systems and humans) and global environmental state change. Written by leading international experts from different fields, the book demonstrates the unifying property of UQ theme that can be profitably adopted to solve problems of different domains. The collection in one place of different methodologies for different applications has the great value of stimulating the cross-fertilization and alleviate the language barrier among areas sharing a common background of mathematical modeling for problem solution. The book is designed for researchers, professionals and graduate students interested in quantitatively assessing the effects of uncertainties in their fields of application. The contents build upon the workshop "Uncertainty Modeling for Engineering Applications" (UMEMA 2017), held in Torino, Italy in November 2017.
| Author | : Shankar Sankararaman |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 363 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| ISBN | : |
