On Measuring the Economic Significance of Asset Return Predictability

On Measuring the Economic Significance of Asset Return Predictability
Author: Murray Carlson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 70
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

A number of recent studies have measured the quantitative effect of excess return predictability on the optimal consumption and portfolio choices of a rational investor, and they have used the utility costs of ignoring predictability as a natural measure of economic significance. We use a general equilibrium model as a laboratory for generating predictable excess returns and for assessing the properties of the estimated consumption/portfolio rules, under both the empirical and the true dynamics of excess returns. We find that conditional rules based on ordinary least squares estimates of excess returns are severely biased, and they have a large variance across multiple simulated histories of the model. In this experiment, we find the estimation issues to be so severe that the simple unconditional consumption and portfolio rules, from Merton (1969), actually outperform (in a utility cost sense) both simple and bias-corrected empirical estimates of conditionally optimal policies.

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics
Author: Robert A. Meyers
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 919
Release: 2010-11-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1441977007

Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2019-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262039370

An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Predicting Stock Returns

Predicting Stock Returns
Author: David G McMillan
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2017-11-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319690086

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of asset price movement. It examines different aspects of stock return predictability, the interaction between stock return and dividend growth predictability, the relationship between stocks and bonds, and the resulting implications for asset price movement. By contributing to our understanding of the factors that cause price movement, this book will be of benefit to researchers, practitioners and policy makers alike.

Essays on the Predictability and Volatility of Asset Returns

Essays on the Predictability and Volatility of Asset Returns
Author: Stefan A. Jacewitz
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation collects two papers regarding the econometric and economic theory and testing of the predictability of asset returns. It is widely accepted that stock returns are not only predictable but highly so. This belief is due to an abundance of existing empirical literature finding often overwhelming evidence in favor of predictability. The common regressors used to test predictability (e.g., the dividend-price ratio for stock returns) are very persistent and their innovations are highly correlated with returns. Persistence when combined with a correlation between innovations in the regressor and asset returns can cause substantial over-rejection of a true null hypothesis. This result is both well documented and well known. On the other hand, stochastic volatility is both broadly accepted as a part of return time series and largely ignored by the existing econometric literature on the predictability of returns. The severe effect that stochastic volatility can have on standard tests are demonstrated here. These deleterious effects render standard tests invalid. However, this problem can be easily corrected using a simple change of chronometer. When a return time series is read in the usual way, at regular intervals of time (e.g., daily observations), then the distribution of returns is highly non-normal and displays marked time heterogeneity. If the return time series is, instead, read according to a clock based on regular intervals of volatility, then returns will be independent and identically normally distributed. This powerful result is utilized in a unique way in each chapter of this dissertation. This time-deformation technique is combined with the Cauchy t-test and the newly introduced martingale estimation technique. This dissertation finds no evidence of predictability in stock returns. Moreover, using martingale estimation, the cause of the Forward Premium Anomaly may be more easily discerned.

Predictability of Asset Returns

Predictability of Asset Returns
Author: Pascal Ziegler
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

In dieser Thesis untersuche ich die Voraussagbarkeit von amerikanischen Aktienerträgen für die Periode 1973 - 2003. Ich unterscheide zwischen kurzfristiger und langfristiger Voraussagbarkeit und finde für beide Fälle Hinweise für ihre Existenz. Die langfristige Voraussagbarkeit sollte jedoch vorsichtig betrachtet werden. Ausserdem diskutiere ich die Implikationen von vorhersagbaren Aktienerträgen auf die Wahl des Portfolios. Weiter zeige ich, dass Voraussagbarkeit ökonomisch signifikant ist. Eine Handelsstrategie basierend auf der Vorhersage von Aktienerträgen mit Hilfe des Zinssatzes zeigt eine bessere Performance als eine buy-and-hold Strategie sogar unter Berücksichtigung von Transaktionskosten.

The Optimal Use of Return Predictability

The Optimal Use of Return Predictability
Author: Abhay Abhyankar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we investigate the empirical performance of unconditionally efficient portfolios strategies for a number of commonly used predictive variables. These strategies, which optimally utilize asset return predictability in portfolio formation were studied by Hansen and Richard (1987) and Ferson and Siegel (2001). Our criterion is to maximize various ex-post performance measures and we conduct both in-sample as well as out-of-sample analysis. Our analysis allows us to determine the economic value of using different predictor variables and also groups of predictor variables.Overall we find that the optimal use of conditioning information significantly improves the risk-return tradeoff available to a mean-variance investor relative to fixed weight strategies. These findings are consistent across portfolio efficiency measures such as Sharpe ratios, portfolio variance subject to a mean constraint or portfolio mean subject to a volatility constraint as well as measures of economic value such as switching costs.In addition we also compare the performance of the unconditionally efficient strategies with conditionally efficient strategies from an investment-based perspective. We find that the performance of the two strategies is quite different due to the differing response of the portfolio weights of the two strategies to conditioning information.