Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information

Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information
Author: Wayne E. Ferson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2006
Genre: Assets (Accounting)
ISBN:

We develop asset pricing models' implications for portfolio efficiency when there is conditioning information in the form of a set of lagged instruments. A model of expected returns identifies a portfolio that should be minimum variance efficient with respect to the conditioning information. Our tests refine previous tests of portfolio efficiency, using the conditioning information optimally. We reject the efficiency of all static or time-varying combinations of the three Fama-French (1996) factors with respect to the conditioning information and also the conditional efficiency of time-varying combinations of the factors, given standard lagged instruments.

Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information

Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information
Author: Wayne E. Ferson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

We develop asset pricing models' implications for portfolio efficiency when there is conditioning information in the form of a set of lagged instruments. A model of expected returns identifies a portfolio that should be minimum variance efficient with respect to the conditioning information. Our tests refine previous tests of portfolio efficiency, using the conditioning information optimally. We reject the efficiency of all static or time-varying combinations of the three Fama-French (1996) factors with respect to the conditioning information and also the conditional efficiency of time-varying combinations of the factors, given standard lagged instruments.

Portfolio Efficiency and Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information

Portfolio Efficiency and Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information
Author: Abhay Abhyankar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper, we develop a unified framework for the study of mean-variance efficiency and discount factor bounds in the presence of conditioning information. We extend the Hilbert space framework of Hansen and Richard (1987) to obtain new characterizations of the efficient portfolio frontier and variance bounds on discount factors, as functions of the conditioning information. We introduce a covariance-orthogonal representation of the asset return space, which allows us to derive several new results, and provide a portfolio-based interpretation of existing results. Our analysis is inspired by, and extends the recent work of Ferson and Siegel (2001,2002), and Bekaert and Liu (2001). Our results have several important applications in empirical asset pricing, such as the construction of portfolio-based tests of asset pricing models, conditional measures of portfolio performance, and tests of return predictability.

Asymptotic Variances for Tests of Portfolio Efficiency and Factor Model Comparisons with Conditioning Information

Asymptotic Variances for Tests of Portfolio Efficiency and Factor Model Comparisons with Conditioning Information
Author: Wayne E. Ferson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

We provide asymptotic standard errors for tests of asset pricing models and factor model comparisons with dynamic trading using conditioning information in the form of lagged instruments. The tests are based on comparing squared Sharpe ratios or their normalized differences. We provide results for both traded and non-traded factor models, and we study the optimal choice of the zero beta rate. We evaluate the asymptotic standard errors with simulations and provide applications to asset pricing model tests and factor model comparisons. We find that the incremental performance improvement of the FF5 model over the FF3 and the FF3 over the CAPM is greater when dynamic trading is allowed, as is the effect of a momentum factor. Dynamically trading consumption and liquidity hedging portfolios contribute significantly to the performance of most of the models.

Efficient Use of Conditioning Information

Efficient Use of Conditioning Information
Author: Abhay Abhyankar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we propose a new Sharpe ratio based test of asset return predictability. Intuitively, a variable that predicts returns is of value to an investor if it allows the construction of 'managed' portfolios that expand the unconditional mean-variance efficient frontier, and thus the investor's opportunity set. The maximum Sharpe ratio achievable using the predictive information efficiently therefore provides a convenient measure of the extent to which predictability matters. We build on the conditional asset pricing theory of Hansen and Richard (1987) to explicitly characterize the difference in maximum squared Sharpe ratios with and without conditioning information. We show that this difference is directly related to the R^2 of a predictive regression. Our test statistic is closely related to the Wald test for the regression coefficient. Under the null hypothesis of no predictability, the difference in squared Sharpe ratios is zero. Rejection of the null hypothesis thus implies that the presence of return predictability significantly expands the mean-variance frontier.Using our test, we find that at short (monthly) horizon, using the consumption-wealth ratio as predictor variable, (Lettau and Ludvigson, 2001), we clearly reject the null hypothesis of no predictability. In contrast, dividend yield has at most marginal effect. However, at longer horizons the effect of dividend yield becomes more pronounced. An important implication of our results is that neither the fixed-weight three-factor Fama-French (1988) model, nor the Carhart (1996) model, can be viable conditional asset pricing models when consumption-wealth ratio is chosen as the conditioning variable. Our analysis is closely related to, and extends the work of Ferson and Siegel (2001), Bekaert and Liu (2001), and Kirby (1998).

Portfolio Efficiency and Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information

Portfolio Efficiency and Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information
Author: Devraj Basu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper, we study the properties of unconditionally efficient portfolios and discount factor bounds in the presence of conditioning information. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a detailed comparison between various stochastic discount factor bounds with conditioning information. We do this by exploiting the explicit link between the stochastic discount factor approach and portfolio efficiency in the presence of conditioning information. For common choices of base assets and conditioning instruments, we find that the quot;unconditionally efficientquot; bounds of Ferson and Siegel (2002) are statistically indistinguishable from the (theoretically) optimal bounds of Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen (1990), while having smaller sampling variability. We demonstrate that the difference in sampling variability of the UE and GHT bounds is due to the different behavior of the portfolio weights underlying their construction. Our work is closely related to and extends Ferson and Siegel (2001), Ferson and Siegel (2002) and Bekaert and Liu (2001).

Advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management (New Series) Vol.7

Advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management (New Series) Vol.7
Author: Cheng F. Lee
Publisher: Center for PBBEFR & Airiti Press
Total Pages:
Release: 2016-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9864370480

Advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the area of investment analysis and portfolio management. The publication is a forum for statistical and quantitative analyses of issues in security analysis, portfolio management, options, futures, and other related issues. The objective is to promote interaction between academic research in finance, economics, and accounting and applied research in the financial community.