Testing for Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance and the Ex Post Verification Problem

Testing for Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance and the Ex Post Verification Problem
Author: Vassilios Babalos
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

The present study examines a series of performance measures as an attempt to resolve the ex post verification problem. These measures are employed to test the performance persistence hypothesis of domestic equity funds in Greece, during the period 1998-2004. Correctly adjusting for risk factors and documented portfolio strategies explains a significant part of the reported persistence. The intercept of the augmented Carhart regression is proposed as the most appropriate performance measure. Using this measure, weak evidence for persistence, only before 2001, is documented. The growth of the fund industry, the direction of flows to past winners and the integration in the international financial system are suggested to be the reasons for the absence of performance persistence.

Asset Allocation Strategies for Mutual Funds

Asset Allocation Strategies for Mutual Funds
Author: Giuseppe Galloppo
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 485
Release: 2021-07-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030761282

This book offers an overview of the best-working strategies in the field of equity and fixed income mutual fund-based portfolio management. This timely research considers different market conditions, such as global financial crises, across various geographical regions such as the USA and Europe. Combining academic and practical findings, the author presents a practitioner perspective on mutual fund-based portfolio strategies, appealing not only to finance scholars but also professionals within the asset management industry. This book synthesizes a large part of the academic research to date on the mutual fund industry by drawing from the most widely cited academic journals. The author makes a systematic use of numerical examples to facilitate the understanding of Investment themes organized around several important topics: size, diversification, flows, active management, volatility, performance persistence and rating.

Progress in Intelligent Decision Science

Progress in Intelligent Decision Science
Author: Tofigh Allahviranloo
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 992
Release: 2021-01-29
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3030665011

This book contains the topics of artificial intelligence and deep learning that do have much application in real-life problems. The concept of uncertainty has long been used in applied science, especially decision making and a logical decision must be made in the field of uncertainty or in the real-life environment that is formed and combined with vague concepts and data. The chapters of this book are connected to the new concepts and aspects of decision making with uncertainty. Besides, other chapters are involved with the concept of data mining and decision making under uncertain computations.

Eliminating Look-Ahead Bias in Evaluating Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Eliminating Look-Ahead Bias in Evaluating Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance
Author: Jenke ter Horst
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

Performance persistence studies typically suffer from ex-post conditioning biases. As stressed by Carhart (1997a) and Carpenter and Lynch (1999), standard methods of analysis on a survivorship free sample are subject to look-ahead biases. In this paper, we show how one can easily correct for look-ahead bias using weights based on probit regressions.First, we model how survival probabilities depend upon historical returns, fund age and aggregate economy-wide shocks, using two samples of US based 'income' and 'growth' funds. Subsequently, we employ a Monte Carlo study to analyze the size and shape of the look-ahead bias in performance persistence that arise when a survivorship free sample is used with standard techniques. In particular, we show that look-ahead bias induces a spurious U-shaped pattern in performance persistence. Finally, we demonstrate how a weighting procedure based upon probit regressions can be used to correct for this bias. In this way, we obtain look-ahead bias-corrected estimates of abnormal performance relative to a one-factor and the Carhart (1997b) four-factor model, as well as its persistence. The results suggest that in this sample, look-ahead bias is of minor importance and does not seriously affect estimates of persistence. Our bias-corrected results closely correspond to the findings of Carhart (1997b), implying that there is no evidence on a risk-adjusted basis for persistence in performance.

Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund Alpha
Author: John M. Longo
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 333
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9812834664

Hedge funds are perhaps the hottest topic in finance today, but little material of substance to date has been written on the topic. Most books focus on how to set up a hedge fund and the basic strategies, while few to none focus on what matters most: generating and understanding investment performance. This book takes an exclusive look at the latter, including an analysis of the areas that are most likely to generate strong investment returns OCo namely, the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The book will be invaluable to not only financial professionals, but anyone interested in learning about hedge funds and their future.

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Author: Andreas Fagereng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2018-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484370066

We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.

The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence

The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence
Author: Andrew Ang
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 99
Release: 2011
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601984685

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.