System Dynamics Modeling Of Chinese Urban Housing Markets For Pedagogical And Policy Analysis Purposes
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| Author | : Xin Zhang |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 45 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper reports on the current state of a project to develop a system dynamics (SD) model for urban housing markets in China, aimed at facilitating policy analysis and supporting practical educational tools that might reach large numbers of potential entrepreneurs in China. Although numerous academic papers have applied SD models to real estate markets over the past generation, the technique remains relatively unknown and little used both in the academic economics literature and, more to the point, among practitioners and educators in the real estate community. Yet SD has the potential to address key needs among these constituencies, and extend and complement upon traditional economic methods. SD models are focused on modeling market transitions toward long-run equilibria, facilitating the study of the details of causality and the dynamic path of the market and features that are prominent in the history of housing markets in emerging markets. Different from intensive data-driven economic models, SD models are structural-based operational models that can more easily accommodate the actual non-market features and unique institutional components of these emerging real estate markets, where long-range historical data are not readily available. SD can provide intuitive and transparent model structures that should be able to improve pedagogy for educating large numbers of potential real estate entrepreneurs particularly in emerging market countries. For demonstration, in the present paper we choose to focus on the China-specific features of 'speculative demand' and 'land financing scheme', and use the newly developed SD model to explore the effects of land supply, "command-and-control" versus "market-driven" policies for housing in China. It is important to note, however, that while we chose China for the purposes of our study, the same technique can be applied to any emerging real estate market. Moreover, our research here can e seen as a stepping stone; Before a generalized SD model for emerging markets can be developed, it is both reasonable and appropriate to construct a model that is constrained to a manageable subset of the overall market space.
| Author | : Xin Zhang (Ph. D.) |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 287 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This thesis analyzes the potential housing bubble in the Chinese urban housing market. Using an operational model built on system dynamics (SD), it explores the unique housing market structures, information flows, key agents and their decision-making processes, and the system constraints that may contribute to the bubble forming phenomenon. Its SD models differ from intensive data-driven economic models. They are structural, operational, and focus on causal relationships. They can more easily accommodate non-market features and unique institutional components, where long-range historical data are not readily available. As the Chinese government heavily controls its housing markets, housing prices greatly depend on political decisions. The models incorporate the incentives and decisions of key agents in the market and have predictive power through simulation and scenario analysis. They can thus help decision-makers transform decisions, actively manage risks and opportunities, timely design and implement policies, and consequently change the system from within. This thesis specifically discusses three Chinese-specific features: 1. Rising housing price and the cap rate change; 2. High vacancy rates caused by speculators purchasing multiple housing units as money-storage investments they are unwilling to rent; 3. Land financing schemes where local governments rely on income from land sales to support their budgets which leads them to use their monopolistic position to short supply the land. The research design starts from the DiPasquale-Wheaton model (D-W) which Western urban economics theory has validated for analyzing housing cycles. It operationalizes this by: 1. Converting the D-W to a basic SD model; 2. Augmenting this with additional generic features; 3. Incorporating unique Chinese market features to create China-specific models; and then 4. Creating an integrated overarching model for conducting a case study using historical data of Nanjing, China. The result is one of the first operational models for the Chinese housing market that has the explanatory mechanisms and somehow overcomes the data availability issues. It provides an intuitive and transparent structure that we can easily modify to address complex issues. This thesis analyzes the potential housing bubble in the Chinese urban housing market. Using an operational model built on system dynamics (SD), it explores the unique housing market structures, information flows, key agents and their decision-making processes, and the system constraints that may contribute to the bubble forming phenomenon. Its SD models differ from intensive data-driven economic models. They are structural, operational, and focus on causal relationships. They can more easily accommodate non-market features and unique institutional components, where long-range historical data are not readily available. As the Chinese government heavily controls its housing markets, housing prices greatly depend on political decisions. The models incorporate the incentives and decisions of key agents in the market and have predictive power through simulation and scenario analysis. They can thus help decision-makers transform decisions, actively manage risks and opportunities, timely design and implement policies, and consequently change the system from within. This thesis specifically discusses three Chinese-specific features: 1. Rising housing price and the cap rate change; 2. High vacancy rates caused by speculators purchasing multiple housing units as money-storage investments they are unwilling to rent; 3. Land financing schemes where local governments rely on income from land sales to support their budgets which leads them to use their monopolistic position to shortsupply the land. The research design starts from the DiPasquale-Wheaton model (D-W) which Western urban economics theory has validated for analyzing housing cycles. It operationalizes this by: 1. Converting the D-W to a basic SD model; 2. Augmenting this with additional generic features; 3. Incorporating unique Chinese market features to create China-specific models; and then 4. Creating an integrated overarching model for conducting a case study using historical data of Nanjing, China. The result is one of the first operational models for the Chinese housing market that has the explanatory mechanisms and somehow overcomes the data availability issues. It provides an intuitive and transparent structure that we can easily modify to address complex issues.
| Author | : Zan Yang |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 141 |
| Release | : 2014-01-25 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 3642540449 |
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of housing affordability under the economic reforms and social transformations in urban China. It also offers an overall review of the current government measures on the housing market and affordable housing policies in China. By introducing a dynamic affordability approach and residual income approach, the book allows us to capture the size of the affordability gap more accurately, to better identify policy targets, and to assess the effectiveness of current public policy. The unique database on urban household surveys and regional information on affordable housing projects serve to strengthen the analysis. The book offers theoretical and empirical insights for in-depth affordability studies and helps readers to understand the social impacts of market reforms and the role of government on the Chinese housing market.
| Author | : Grazia Napoli |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 258 |
| Release | : 2022-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3031169263 |
This book collects the best papers presented at a recent conference organized by SIEV (Italian Society of Appraisal and Valuation) to promote the interaction between Appraisal and Valuation and other social sciences to study the effects of migration on value and social, spatial and economic systems in a multicultural city. The book consists of seventeen papers in two parts. The first part, "Values and Relational Systems in Multicultural Societies", features how social sciences--including appraisal and valuation, urban planning, philosophy, psychology, and geography--take different approaches to studying values and relationships, converging to form a unified mosaic of complementary and interconnected knowledge. The second part, "Permeability and Permanence of Values in a Contemporary Multicultural City", highlights the most crucial topics on which appraisals and models focus to interpret and represent the influence of migration on the real estate market in different urban and territorial contexts, from historical centers, small towns, to tourist cities, also taking into account sustainability, maintenance and regeneration of cities.
| Author | : Rebecca L. H. Chiu |
| Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
| Total Pages | : 427 |
| Release | : 2019-03-18 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0429796161 |
Recent rapid housing market expansion in China is presenting new challenges for policy makers, planners, business people, and citizens. Now that housing in middle-income China is driven by consumer choices and is no longer dominated by state policy decisions, housing policy issues in Chinese cities are becoming increasingly similar to those encountered in other global housing markets. With soaring prices and imbalances in housing supply favoring high income groups and housing demand driven by rising inequality in household incomes, many middle and lower-income households face worsening choices in terms of the quality and location of their housing as well as greater financial difficulties, which together can have negative implications for standards of public health. This book examines the impact of these changes on the general population, as well as on aspiring homeowners and developers. The contributors look at the effect on the widening of wealth gaps, slower economic growth, and threats to political and social stability. Though focusing on China, the editors also present discussions of specific policy design challenges encountered in Australia, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK, and the US. This book would be of interest to housing policy makers, as well as academics who are studying the social and political effects of the Chinese housing market.
| Author | : Miao Zhang |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 144 |
| Release | : 2015-06-10 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9812875700 |
Using fresh evidence and a novel methodological framework, this book sheds light on how institutions have driven economic reform in China's urban housing sector. The book systematically analyzes the developmental role of the state in China, with rich empirical evidence to show how decentralization has brought about significant participation by the different levels of government with the central, provincial and municipal governments focusing on initiation, intermediation and implementation roles respectively. Despite many Western analysts claiming that it is single complex superstructure, the institutionalization of governance structures in China following reforms has taken place through strong coordination between governments at different levels to meet targeted plans. Although China still has a long way to go to before it can be considered developed, this book elaborates on how the country offers a unique alternative for other states seeking to develop by striking a balance between capitalist and socialist instruments.
| Author | : Zhou Yu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
China's emerging housing market, as a critical element of ongoing economic reforms, has drawn increasing attention. The complete abandonment of the socialist housing allocation system in the late 1990s has led to profound changes in housing distribution and consumption in urban China. This article, through analysis of Chinese Census 2000 data and other comparable datasets, examines housing dynamics in China and in its four autonomous municipalities in the late 1990s. It is found that urban housing conditions have improved by almost all accounts, while housing gaps were rapidly widening. Meanwhile, the mechanisms of housing distribution were shifting. Occupational status and educational level have become much more decisive factors. Regional disparities are also evident, due in part to differences in the reform measures undertaken. The drastic changes in the housing sector manifest the phenomenal socioeconomic changes due to twenty years' economic reforms. Reform is successful in increasing distributional inequality as a way to introduce market-based incentives and improve productivity. However, those who were in power have maintained and extended their advantages in the new system. Therefore, while the market is in the making, demographic and institutional factors instead of economic factors are more relevant in housing distribution and residential behavior.
| Author | : Junhua Chen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 279 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : China |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Carlos Garriga |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 47 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : Housing |
| ISBN | : |
This paper explores the contribution of the structural transformation and urbanization process to China's housing-market boom. Rural to urban migration together with regulated land supplies and developer entry restrictions can raise housing prices. This issue is examined using a multi-sector dynamic general-equilibrium model with migration and housing. Our quantitative findings suggest that this process accounts for about 80 percent of urban housing price changes. This mechanism remains valid in extensions calibrated to the two largest cities with most noticeable housing booms and to several alternative setups. Overall, supply factors and productivity account for most of the housing price growth.
| Author | : David F Clapham |
| Publisher | : SAGE |
| Total Pages | : 530 |
| Release | : 2012-04-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1446265943 |
Cross-disciplinary and critical in its approach, The SAGE Handbook of Housing Studies is an elucidating look at the key issues within the field. It covers the study of housing retrospectively, but also analyses the future directions of research and theory, demonstrating how it can contribute to wider debates in the social sciences. A comprehensive introductory chapter is followed by four parts offering complete coverage of the area: Markets: examines the perception of housing markets, how they function in different contexts, and the importance of housing behaviour and neighbourhoods Approaches: looks at how other disciplines - economics, geography, and sociology - have informed the direction of housing studies Context: traces the interactions between housing studies and other aspects of society, providing context to debate housing through issues of space, social, welfare and the environment. Policy: is a multi-disciplinary and comprehensive take on the major policy issues and the causes and possible solutions of housing problems such as regeneration and homelessness. Edited by leading names in the field and including international contributions, the book is a stimulating, wide-ranging read that will be an invaluable resource for academics and researchers in geography, urban studies, sociology, social policy, economics and politics.
