Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T

Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T
Author: Mustafa Kırca
Publisher: Litres
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2022-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 5042306366

The main aim of the study is to examine the symmetric and asymmetric relationship between oil prices and the current account balances of BRICS-T countries covering the period from 2003:Q1 to 2017:Q2. In the study, Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) for the symmetric causality test and Hatemi-J (2012) for the asymmetric causality test are used to test the relationships between the variables. The symmetrical causality test results support that there is unidirectional causality from Brazil’s current account balances to oil prices and there is unidirectional causality from oil prices to Turkey’s current account balances. On the other hand, asymmetrical causality test results support that there are many causal relationships between the variables shock. There is causality from positive oil price shock to South Africa’s positive current account balances shock, from negative oil price shock to Russia, China, and Turkey’s negative current account balances shocks and to Russia, India, and Turkey’s positive current account balances shocks. Besides, there is causality from Brazil’s negative current account balances shock to both positive and negative oil prices shocks. Also, it is seen that there is causality from India’s positive current account balances shock to negative oil prices shock.Policy-makers should consider the impact of the shocks in oil prices on the current account to evaluate any policy, especially for Russia, China, India and Turkey.

Current-account Sustainability

Current-account Sustainability
Author: Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Publisher: International Finance Section Princeton University Internati
Total Pages: 90
Release: 1996
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This study presents a notion of current-account sustainability that explicitly considers, in addition to intertemporal solvency, a willingness to pay and to lend. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a useful framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current-account imbalances. Based on this notion, the authors identify a number of potential sustainability indicators related to the structure of the economy and the economic policy stance. They use these indicators in the evaluation of the experience of a number of countries that have run persistent current-account imbalances and ask whether they help to discriminate between countries that underwent an external crisis and those that did not.

World Economic Outlook, April 2016

World Economic Outlook, April 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 230
Release: 2016-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498398588

Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.

External Adjustment

External Adjustment
Author: Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2004
Genre: Balance of trade
ISBN:

"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website

The Washington Consensus Reconsidered

The Washington Consensus Reconsidered
Author: Narcís Serra
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 399
Release: 2008-04-24
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0191538604

This volume brings together many of the leading international figures in development studies, such as Jose Antonio Ocampo, Paul Krugman, Dani Rodrik, Joseph Stiglitz, Daniel Cohen, Olivier Blanchard, Deepak Nayyar and John Williamson to reconsider and propose alternative development policies to the Washington Consensus. Covering a wide range of issues from macro-stabilization to trade and the future of global governance, this important volume makes a real contribution to this important and ongoing debate. The volume begins by introducing the Washington Consensus, discussing how it was originally formulated, what it left out, and how it was later interpreted, and sets the stage for a formulation of a new development framework in the post-Washington Consensus era. It then goes on to analyze and offer differing perspectives and potential solutions to a number of key development issues, some which were addressed by the Washington Consensus and others which were not. The volume concludes by looking toward formulating new policy frameworks and offers possible reforms to the current system of global governance.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2015

Global Economic Prospects, January 2015
Author: World Bank Publications
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2015-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464804451

As in previous years, global growth disappointed in 2014, but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies and developing countries. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in highincome countries, low oil prices, and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies. However, continued weak global trade growth and gradually tightening financial conditions will constrain the recovery. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes four essays that analyze key challenges and opportunities currently confronting developing countries: fiscal policy as a countercyclical policy tool; causes and implications of cheap oil; weak trade that fails to act as an engine of growth; and remittances as a means of steadying consumption during sudden stops. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

Strengthening China's and India's Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa

Strengthening China's and India's Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa
Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 220
Release: 2009
Genre: Africa, North
ISBN: 0821377779

China and India's spectacular economic rise over the last two decades has accelerated their trade and investment flows with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), particularly with the oil-producing countries. And while these flows are still small, China and India's presence in the region is on the rise. This report focuses on the following questions: what have been evolution and the impact of MENA's trade and investment relations with China and India? what actions can be taken to maximize the benefits from these relations and to enhance MENA's international integration? The main findings indicate that the region as a whole has benefited from the rise of China and India in terms of better terms of trade, significant increases in oil and gas exports, and cheaper imports. However, producers of industrial goods have been negatively-and in a few cases severely-affected by competition with the two Asian countries in both third and domestic markets. While China and India are investing more in MENA, they are contributing very little to job creation or to the transfer and diffusion of technology. Faster growth in the two Asian countries-and the associated higher demand for energy-will increase revenues from oil and the difficult choices associated with their management. For the labor-abundant, non oil-producing countries, competition with China and India will increase. But the lack of competitive manufacturing industries and services, the insufficient attention given in the past to building technological capabilities and promoting openness and entrepreneurship are constraining their ability to respond to competition. They need to accelerate productivity to tackle unemployment, especially among youth. This may require the broader institutional changes seen in China and India-suggesting the importance of a pragmatic reform agenda that can accelerate productivity, trade, and investment in the region.

Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture

Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture
Author: Naoyuki Yoshino
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9784899740698

Asian economies continue to be subject to new shocks: US monetary policy tightening, the adoption of negative-interest-rate policies by central banks all over the world, the slowdown of the People's Republic of China, and the sharp drop in oil and other commodity prices. All these highlight the vulnerability of the region to volatile trade and capital flows even as the global and Asian regional financial architecture evolves. This volume analyzes the vulnerabilities of Asian economies to external economic and financial shocks and assesses the performance of Asian regional institutions in financial surveillance and cooperation. It also evaluates ongoing reforms of the global financial architecture, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Financial Stability Board, and reviews the experience of the "Troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, and the IMF) in managing the European sovereign debt and banking crisis. Based on these, the book develops valuable recommendations to strengthen the Asian regional financial architecture and improve cooperation with global multilateral institutions.

Global Value Chains in a Changing World

Global Value Chains in a Changing World
Author: Deborah Kay Elms
Publisher:
Total Pages: 409
Release: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9789287038821

A collection of papers by some of the world's leading specialists on global value chains (GVCs). It examines how GVCs have evolved and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing world. The approach is multi-disciplinary, with contributions from economists, political scientists, supply chain management specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. Co-published with the Fung Global Institute and the Temasek