Stochastic Volatility and Jumps

Stochastic Volatility and Jumps
Author: Katja Ignatieva
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper analyzes exponentially affine and non-affine stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and volatility. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is applied within a Bayesian inference to estimate model parameters and latent variables using daily returns from the Samp;P 500 stock index. There are two approaches to overcome the problem of misspecification of the square root stochastic volatility model. The first approach proposed by Christo ersen, Jacobs and Mimouni (2008) suggests to investigate some non-affine alternatives of the volatility process. The second approach consists in examining more heavily parametrized models by adding jumps to the return and possibly to the volatility process. The aim of this paper is to combine both model frameworks and to test whether the class of affine models is outperformed by the class of non-affine models if we include jumps into the stochastic processes. We conclude that the non-affine model structure have promising statistical properties and are worth further investigations. Further, we find affine models with jump components that perform similar to the non affine models without jump components. Since non affine models yield economically unrealistic parameter estimates, and research is rather developed for the affine model structures we have a tendency to prefer the affine jump diffusion models.

Empirical Performance of Non-Affine Stochastic Volatility Models

Empirical Performance of Non-Affine Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Øystein Sivertsen Jensen
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis aims to test the empirical performance of 5 different non-affine specifications of the stochastic volatility model. The performance of the common affine square-root (SQR) specification is also investigated. The analysis is carried out by calibrating each model to option data by fitting the model-implied Black-Scholes volatilities to the marked-implied Black-Scholes volatilities. The data is collected from three months of very different financial climates; January 2007, October 2008, and July 2010. Three assets are considered; the S&P500 index, Apple Inc. and ExxonMobil Corporation. The findings confirm that model fit can be improved by choosing a non-affine model specification. The VAR model stands out as the best specification across all performance measures. The 3/2N model also consistently outperforms the SQR model. A separate estimation exercise based on maximum likelihood is also performed, confirming the better performance of the non-affine model specifications. The estimated parameters from the two estimation exercises show little sign of consistency, which indicates that all models are misspecified.

A Unified Valuation Framework for Variance Swaps Under Non-Affine Stochastic Volatility Models

A Unified Valuation Framework for Variance Swaps Under Non-Affine Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Alex Badescu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

In this article, we investigate the pricing and convergence of general non-affine non-Gaussian GARCH-based variance swap prices. Explicit solutions for fair strike prices under two different sampling schemes are derived using the extended Girsanov principle as our pricing kernel candidate. Following standard assumptions on the time-varying GARCH parameters, we show that these quantities converge to discretely and continuously sampled variance swaps constructed based on the weak diffusion limit of the underlying GARCH model. An empirical study which relies on a joint estimation using both historical returns and VIX data indicates that an asymmetric heavier-tailed distribution is more appropriate for modelling the GARCH innovations. Finally, we provide several numerical exercises to support our theoretical convergence results in which we investigate the effect of the quadratic variation approximation for the realized variance, as well as the impact of discrete versus continuous-time modelling of asset returns.

Empirical Analysis of Affine vs. Non-Affine Variance Specifications in Jump-Diffusion Models for Equity Indices

Empirical Analysis of Affine vs. Non-Affine Variance Specifications in Jump-Diffusion Models for Equity Indices
Author: Katja Ignatieva
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

How to model the variance process driving stock returns is a major research questions in finance. The specification of a variance model has implications for, e.g., risk management decisions, portfolio allocation or derivative pricing. This paper analyzes several crucial questions for setting up a variance model. (i) Are jumps an important model ingredient even when using a non-affine specification? (ii) How do affine specifications perform when compared to non-affine models. (iii) How should non-linearities be modeled? We find that, first, jump models clearly outperform pure stochastic volatility models. Second, non-affine specifications outperform affine models, even after including jumps. And finally, we find that the polynomial specification of the drift term, that has also been used in short rate models, is the best non-affine model under consideration.

Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives

Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives
Author: Yue Kuen Kwok
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2022-05-08
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1000584275

Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives summarizes most of the recent research results in pricing models of derivatives on discrete realized variance and VIX. The book begins with the presentation of volatility trading and uses of variance derivatives. It then moves on to discuss the robust replication strategy of variance swaps using portfolio of options, which is one of the major milestones in pricing theory of variance derivatives. The replication procedure provides the theoretical foundation of the construction of VIX. This book provides sound arguments for formulating the pricing models of variance derivatives and establishes formal proofs of various technical results. Illustrative numerical examples are included to show accuracy and effectiveness of analytic and approximation methods. Features Useful for practitioners and quants in the financial industry who need to make choices between various pricing models of variance derivatives Fabulous resource for researchers interested in pricing and hedging issues of variance derivatives and VIX products Can be used as a university textbook in a topic course on pricing variance derivatives

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Jaya P. N. Bishwal
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 634
Release: 2022-08-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031038614

This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.

Missing Data Methods

Missing Data Methods
Author: David M. Drukker
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 262
Release: 2011-11-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1780525265

Part of the "Advances in Econometrics" series, this title contains chapters covering topics such as: Missing-Data Imputation in Nonstationary Panel Data Models; Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance; Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Sample Selection Models Using Gaussian Copulas; and, Consistent Estimation and Orthogonality.