COVID-19 and Emerging Markets

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets
Author: Cem Çakmaklı
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:
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Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt

The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World

The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World
Author: Allen N. Berger
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 522
Release: 2023-09-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 044315273X
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The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World: Expect the Unexpected provides an informed, research-based in-depth understanding of the COVID-19 crisis, its impacts on households, nonfinancial firms, banks, and financial market participants, and the effectiveness of the reactions of governments and policymakers in the United States and around the world. It provides reflections and perspectives on the social costs and benefits of various policies undertaken and a toolkit of preventive measures to deal with crises beyond the COVID-19 crisis. Authors Allen N. Berger, Mustafa U. Karakaplan, and Raluca A. Roman apply their expertise to the research and data on the COVID-19 economic crisis as well as draw on their own rich research experience. They take a holistic approach that compares and contrasts this crisis with other economic and financial crises and assesses economic and financial behavior and government policies in the booms before crises and the aftermaths following them, as well as the crises themselves. They do all this with a keen eye on "Expecting the Unexpected future crises, and policies that might anticipate them and provide better outcomes for society. - Serves as a compendium of available research and data on COVID-19, policies in response to the pandemic, and its effects on the real economy, banking sector, and financial markets - Contextualizes the COVID-19 economic crisis by comparing it to two other global crises from the past: the Crash of 1929 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 - Helps illustrate how crises that originate in financial markets and in the banking sector differ from each other as well as from the COVID-19 crisis that harmed the real economy first - Compares the policies and outcomes of nations to the COVID-19 pandemic and assesses their costs and benefits, with potential implications for prospective future crises

Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19

Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19
Author: Mr. Sonali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2021-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513587390
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This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.

Studies in International Economics and Finance

Studies in International Economics and Finance
Author: Naoyuki Yoshino
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 671
Release: 2022-03-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811670625
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This festschrift volume presents discussions on contemporary issues in international economics and finance. It is aimed to serve as a reference material for researchers. There are two broad sections of the book -- International Macroeconomics and International Finance. The chapters in the International Macroeconomics section discuss critical topics like aggregate level macro model for India with a new Keynesian perspective, balance of payments, service sector exports, foreign exchange constraints for import demands, foreign direct investment and knowledge spill over, the relationship between forex rate fluctuation and investment, Institutional quality-trade openness-economic growth nexus, currency crises and debt-deficit relationship in the BRICS countries in the backdrop of COVID-19. Apart from these, various analytical issues related to macroeconomic policies are also covered in this section. The topics discussed includes the nature of forex market interventions, the issue of disinvestment and privatization, changing nature of fiscal policy, the inflation-growth nexus, macroeconomic simulation modelling, measuring core inflation, central bank credibility, monetary policy, inflation targeting, Infrastructure, trade, unemployment and inequality nexus. In the International Finance section, topics such as COVID-19 induced financial crisis, commodity futures volatility, stock market connectivity, volatility persistence, determinants of sovereign bond yields, FII and stock market volatility, cryptocurrency price formation, financialization of Indian commodity market, and a Keynesian view of the financial crisis are discussed. Overall, thirty two chapters in the volume discuss cutting edge research in the areas of the two sections. A tour de force... a lucid guide to some of the diverse and complex issues in International Macroeconomics and Finance. This collection of scholarly works is a fitting tribute to respected Prof. Bandi Kamaiah and his enviable academic contributions. - Prof. Y V Reddy, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of India This volume comprising thoughtful essays by our leading scholars on some of important policy issues that India is facing is indeed a rich tribute to Professor Bandi Kamaiah . This book will greatly benefit the academic community as well as our policy makers. - Prof. Vijay Kelkar, Chairman, 13th Finance Commission of India; Chairman, India Development Foundation, Mumbai, India Noted economists from India and abroad gather to apply the rigorous searchlight that Professor Bandi Kamaiah used so effectively in his career. Major current topics in macroeconomics and international finance are effectively explored in the volume. - Prof. Ashima Goyal, Emeritus Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India; and Member, Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India This volume of 32 papers in macroeconomics, international economics, and international finance is intended as a tribute to the eminent econometrician , Prof B Kamaiah. Post-graduate students and researchers will find much valuable literature in the volume, which is a fitting tribute to Prof Kamaiah. The editors and authors deserve rich compliments. - Prof. K L Krishna, Former Director, Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi, India I am so happy to hear that Dr. Kamaiah's colleagues and ex-students are bringing out a special volume of articles in his honor. Nothing can be more appropriate. Dr. Kamaiah, being a man of tremendous publications, deserves this tribute. I wish all the luck and success to the new book. - Prof. Kishore Kulkarni, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Metropolitan State University of Denver, USA

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2021-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513587900
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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2020

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2020
Author: Janice Eberly
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 452
Release: 2021-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815739397
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2022

NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2022
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 478
Release: 2023-05-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226828247
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Authoritative takes on the most current and pressing issues in macroeconomics today. The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy. The NBER Macroeconomics Annual brings together leading scholars to discuss five research papers on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. First, Andrea Eisfeldt, Antonio Falato, and Mindy Xiaolan document the rise of a new class of worker that receives part of its labor income as equity-based compensation, its role in the recent decline in the labor share of income, and implications for the returns to skilled labor and the implied capital-skill complementarity. Next, Michael Bauer and Eric Swanson focus on monetary policy shocks and argue the correlation between estimated monetary surprises and previously available information can be explained by uncertainty about the parameters of the monetary policy rule. Using new data and methods they find effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables that are much larger than previously estimated. Job Boerma and Loukas Karabarbounis provide a framework for quantitatively exploring the gap in wealth between White and Black Americans over the past 150 years and examine the effectiveness of reparations as a tool for closing this gap. Guido Menzio considers workers who do not have rational expectations, and whose “stubborn” beliefs change the response of wages to technology shocks, resulting in sticky wages. He finds that the larger the fraction of workers with stubborn beliefs, the more volatile unemployment is. Finally, Rishabh Aggarwal, Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub investigate the growth—particularly in the United States—of private savings, current account deficits, and fiscal deficits after 2020. They argue that fiscal deficits lead to large and persistent increases in private savings and current account deficits.

The COVID-19 Disruption and the Global Health Challenge

The COVID-19 Disruption and the Global Health Challenge
Author: Vincenzo Atella
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 578
Release: 2023-11-07
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0443185778
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The COVID-19 Disruption and the Global Health Dilemma provides an historical accounting of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic through the eyes of the largest pubic health system in the United States, one that served the hardest hit neighborhoods in New York City. The book offers a roadmap to guide healthcare systems and their providers in the event of future pandemics. Readers will learn from healthcare providers at the epicenter of the pandemic in New York City about surge staffing and level loading, along with tips from the ED and ICUs on how to respond to an unprecedented influx of inpatients. - Clarifies the scientific knowledge around COVID-19 - Provides a multidisciplinary analysis involving biology, economics, epidemiology, medicine, and statistics relating to COVID-19 - Focuses on the need to invest and develop the bioeconomy as the basis of a new global and integrated health system, pulling together conservation, resource economics, and preventive and curative medicine

Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era

Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era
Author: Shilpa Deo
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 230
Release: 2024-12-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1040264107
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The global economy has experienced many challenges in recent times, particularly in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as dwindling demand, supply chain disruptions, declining growth rates, further pandemic waves, and increasing poverty and inequality to name but a few. Four years after the pandemic, economies are still struggling to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. While much has been written about the impact of COVID-19 on various sectors and economies, this is the first book to underscore the post-COVID global uncertainties that are still occurring on the world stage and further, to present the recent challenges such as geo-political tensions, war, economic disturbances, climate change, the energy crisis in Europe, recession in developed economies and its effect on developing and least developed economies. The book starts by setting the grounds for further discussion of the present challenges as well as future implications. In addition to examining the immediate issues which occurred with the onset of the pandemic, it explores these from the perspective of developed, developing, and least developed countries. The wide-ranging topics covered by the book include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, China’s increasing economic dominance in neighbouring countries, the economic collapse of Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the factors that led to the technology layoffs and the future of global employees and economies. The book goes beyond looking at sector-specific factors and broadly outlines country-specific instabilities, policy choices and the way forward. The book will be of interest to students of macroeconomics, development and international economics, and international relations as well as researchers and policymakers.

Capitalism at a Crossroads

Capitalism at a Crossroads
Author: Ali Ari
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 384
Release: 2023-02-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3031232577
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As the current capitalist system has been increasingly struggling to respond to the problems and uncertainties in the global economy, this book aims to identify the main economic, social, and ecological problems and discusses solutions for a more inclusive and sustainable economic system. Written by an international selection of contributors, it takes a wider perspective beyond classical orthodox economics. By doing so, this book covers a wide range of topics, such as global warming and climate change, food and energy scarcity, rising inequality and debt issues, health, ecological, economic, and political crises, degrowth, green new deals, solidarity, economy, artificial intelligence, technological change, smart solutions, and smart cities. Discussing these topics, the book presents answers to the question of whether the current capitalist system is viable and provides suggestions for a fair, inclusive, and modern economic system. Taking a comprehensive approach, the book will appeal to students, scholars, and researchers of heterodox and alternative economics.