Sudden Stops And Output Drops
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| Author | : V. V. Chari |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Capital movements |
| ISBN | : |
"In recent financial crises and in recent theoretical studies of them, abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, have been linked with large drops in output.Do sudden stops cause output drops? No, according to a standard equilibrium model in which sudden stops are generated by an abrupt tightening of a country's collateral constraint on foreign borrowing.In this model, in fact, sudden stops lead to output increases, not decreases.An examination of the quantitative effects of a well-known sudden stop, in Mexico in the mid-1990s, confirms that a drop in output accompanying a sudden stop cannot be accounted for by the sudden stop alone.To generate an output drop during a financial crisis, as other studies have done, the model must include other economic frictions which have negative effects on output large enough to overwhelm the positive effect of the sudden stop"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site.
| Author | : Luis Catão |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 66 |
| Release | : 2006-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP and with a median duration of four years. Most SSs also displayed striking crosscountry synchronization, being immediately preceded by rising world interest rates. Both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes were hit, with no significant differences between them. Yet, not all SSs resulted in currency drops: while some countries experienced currency collapses, others managed to preserve exchange rate stability. These different responses are related to domestic "frictions" that heightened the procyclicality of absorption and hindered precautionary reserve accumulation in some countries relative to others.
| Author | : Torbjörn Becker |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2006-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries.
| Author | : Lidan Wang |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 278 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Sebastian Edwards |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 72 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Monetary policy |
| ISBN | : |
Finds that although there is no relationship between capital mobility and the likelihood of a country experiencing an economic recession, countries with high mobility will experience a greater decline in economic growth if a crisis does occur.
| Author | : Mr.Stijn Claessens |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 670 |
| Release | : 2014-02-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475543409 |
The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.
| Author | : Guillermo Calvo |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Argentina |
| ISBN | : |
"This paper shows that the Russian 1998 crisis had a big impact on capital flows to Emerging Market Economies, EMs, especially in Latin America, and that the impact of the Russian shock differs quite markedly across EMs. To illustrate this statement, we compare the polar cases of Chile and Argentina. While Chile exhibited a significant economic slowdown after August 1998, it did not suffer the excruciating collapse suffered by Argentina, where even the payments system came to a full stop. We attribute their difference to the fact that Chile is more open to trade than Argentina, and that it appears to suffer much less from balance-sheet currency-denomination mismatch that was rampant in Argentina before the 2002 crisis (due to large domestic liability dollarization). The paper is essentially descriptive but is in line with and, thus, complements econometric studies like Calvo, Izquierdo and Mejia (NBER Working Paper 10520). The final section addresses policy issues in light of the paper's findings and conjectures"--NBER website
| Author | : Gerard Caprio |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 807 |
| Release | : 2012-11-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0123978742 |
The sharp realities of financial globalization become clear during crises, when winners and losers emerge. Crises usher in short- and long-term changes to the status quo, and everyone agrees that learning from crises is a top priority. The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization devotes separate articles to specific crises, the conditions that cause them, and the longstanding arrangements devised to address them. While other books and journal articles treat these subjects in isolation, this volume presents a wide-ranging, consistent, yet varied specificity. Substantial, authoritative, and useful, these articles provide material unavailable elsewhere. Substantial articles by top scholars sets this volume apart from other information sources Rapidly developing subjects will interest readers well into the future Reader demand and lack of competitors underline the high value of these reference works
| Author | : Mr.Stijn Claessens |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 66 |
| Release | : 2013-01-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 147557908X |
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
| Author | : Tai-Yoo Kim |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 342 |
| Release | : 2013-11-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3642408265 |
This book shows that the existing theories on economic growth have clear limitations in terms of how much they can effectively contribute to actual economic growth. Therefore, this book presents a more effective theory on economic growth for countries and leaders looking to promote economic growth. It is essentially centered around the theory of economic growth and theory of national development, written for agricultural developing countries pursuing industrialization and late-starting industrialized countries pursuing their own development. Nevertheless, it also makes a significant contribution to the very development of human civilization through the growth of developing countries, late-starting industrialized countries and early industrialized countries throughout the world.
