Structural Break Threshold Vars For Predicting Us Recessions Using The Spread
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Author | : Graham Elliott |
Publisher | : Elsevier |
Total Pages | : 667 |
Release | : 2013-08-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0444627405 |
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author | : Don Harding |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 232 |
Release | : 2016-07-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1400880939 |
The global financial crisis highlighted the impact on macroeconomic outcomes of recurrent events like business and financial cycles, highs and lows in volatility, and crashes and recessions. At the most basic level, such recurrent events can be summarized using binary indicators showing if the event will occur or not. These indicators are constructed either directly from data or indirectly through models. Because they are constructed, they have different properties than those arising in microeconometrics, and how one is to use them depends a lot on the method of construction. This book presents the econometric methods necessary for the successful modeling of recurrent events, providing valuable insights for policymakers, empirical researchers, and theorists. It explains why it is inherently difficult to forecast the onset of a recession in a way that provides useful guidance for active stabilization policy, with the consequence that policymakers should place more emphasis on making the economy robust to recessions. The book offers a range of econometric tools and techniques that researchers can use to measure recurrent events, summarize their properties, and evaluate how effectively economic and statistical models capture them. These methods also offer insights for developing models that are consistent with observed financial and real cycles. This book is an essential resource for students, academics, and researchers at central banks and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
Author | : Reuben A. Kessel |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 132 |
Release | : 1965 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Author | : C. Milas |
Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
Total Pages | : 461 |
Release | : 2006-02-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 044451838X |
This volume of Contributions to Economic Analysis addresses a number of important questions in the field of business cycles including: How should business cycles be dated and measured? What is the response of output and employment to oil-price and monetary shocks? And, is the business cycle asymmetric, and does it matter?
Author | : Jan G. De Gooijer |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 626 |
Release | : 2017-03-30 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 3319432524 |
This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible, major supporting concepts and specialized tables are appended at the end of every chapter. In addition, each chapter concludes with a set of key terms and concepts, as well as a summary of the main findings. Lastly, the book offers numerous theoretical and empirical exercises, with answers provided by the author in an extensive solutions manual.
Author | : Nerea M. Pérez |
Publisher | : Nova Science Publishers |
Total Pages | : 190 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
A critical consideration in understanding business cycles is the amplification and propagation of shocks to the economic system. Many recessions seem to arise without a clearly identifiable cause or at least one of significant magnitude to justify an economy-wide recession. How can a small shock cause large changes in the economy? What are the mechanisms that amplify a modest shock such that a serious recession ensues? Despite the persistent search for a mechanism for business cycle amplification and propagation, much research in business cycles seems to ignore the likely role of the financial system. If a shock to the economy inhibits the capital allocation capability of an economy, then a seemingly mild shock may be amplified through its impact on new investment thereby snuffing out economic growth and causing a recession. This book provides new research on the field of recessions from around the globe.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 76 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Money |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Sławomir I. Bukowski |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 385 |
Release | : 2021-04-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1000373258 |
The success of an economy to adapt quickly, flexibly, and effectively to the demands of the changing international economic environment can only be investigated using the achievements of other national economies or regions as a benchmark. This book analyzes the fundamental factors of competitiveness, which will, in turn, facilitate economic development and growth, in the new post-crisis environment. In the economic, social, legal, and technological environment that has emerged in recent years, as well as in the period after the recent financial crisis, it is critical to define, assess, and implement new pathways to competitiveness and economic development. The book covers all aspects of competitiveness and economic growth, from financial intermediaries to tourism and the digital economy, and from regulation and corporate governance to exchange rate dynamics and monetary policy issues. It uses empirical findings from a variety of different countries with divergent economic structures and policies. It examines the new system of production, and the technological, commercial, financial and institutional environment, with the aim of recommending a proportional division of benefits and costs of economic growth. It offers a fresh, holistic, and flexible concept to underscore the new relationship between competitiveness and economic growth. Such an approach is needed, whereby competitiveness is no longer a zero-sum game between countries, but is achievable for all countries. The book recommends future directions and offers policy solutions, and as such, will appeal to students, researchers, and policymakers, as well as those interested in the role of competitiveness in the operation of markets, productivity, and economic development, and how it might foster innovation and growth.
Author | : James H. Stock |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 350 |
Release | : 2008-04-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226774740 |
The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Author | : Walter Krämer |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 134 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3642484123 |
Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t