Stock Returns And Inflation Revisited
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| Author | : Bong-Soo Lee |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The stock return-inflation relation has been an important issue in financial economics. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the relation. Among these, the Modigliani and Cohn's inflation illusion hypothesis has received renewed attention recently. Another hypothesis is the two-regime hypothesis. We reexamine these hypotheses using long sample data. We find that the Modigliani and Cohn hypothesis can explain the post-war negative relation between stock returns and inflation, but it is not easily compatible with the pre-war positive relation. We confirm the presence of two regimes in the relation between the pre- and post-war periods using an alternative structural VAR identification method.
| Author | : Yakov Amihud |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 28 |
| Release | : 1992 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mr. Zhongxia Zhang |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2021-08-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513586750 |
Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
| Author | : Mohammed A. Abu-Ali |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 294 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Paulo R. S. Terra |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 57 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Different explanations have been suggested for the puzzling negative relationship observed between stock returns and inflation. The most popular ones have been the Tax-Effects Hypothesis (Feldstein, 1980), the Proxy Hypothesis (Fama, 1981), and the Reverse Causality Hypothesis (Geske and Roll, 1983). Distinguishing the causal chain between the variables is crucial to sort out which hypothesis best fits the data. This paper employs a VAR approach to investigate the causality relationships among inflation, stock returns, interest rates, and real activity in a sample of seven Latin American developing countries and seven industrial countries. Extant empirical research employs mostly advanced economies data, and only a few uses emerging markets data. The main findings indicate that the differences between industrial and developing countries are not as sharp as one might initially presume, with slightly more support to the Reverse Causality Hypothesis. Also, the results do not in general support previous findings that are largely based on United States data, even among other industrial countries.
| Author | : Yakov Amihud |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper examines the effects of unexpected inflation on stock prices, using Israeli data which provide a direct market-based measure of unexpected inflation: the price reaction of CPI-linked bonds following the CPI announcement. The results show that stock prices have a strong negative relationship with unexpected inflation. The Israeli setting rules out a number of hypotheses advanced in the United States to explain this relationship, such as nominal contracting, inflationary taxation, wealth transfer, and money illusion. This suggests that the negative effect of unexpected inflation is due to its negative association with real activity and its real economic cost.
| Author | : Alan S. Blinder |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 244 |
| Release | : 2013-09-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1483264564 |
Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
| Author | : Michael D. Bordo |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 545 |
| Release | : 2013-06-28 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226066959 |
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
| Author | : Akkucuk, Ulas |
| Publisher | : IGI Global |
| Total Pages | : 378 |
| Release | : 2022-08-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1668458780 |
As the COVID-19 pandemic comes to a close, inflation has revealed itself to be a major problem for all countries of the developed world. The problem has been exacerbated in developing nations, which had problems even before the pandemic. Energy prices have increased, and with the increase in transportation costs, it has been more difficult for many retailers to stock shelves as they did before the pandemic. It is understood by many that the rising prices and supply chain disruptions will likely not be temporary and must be managed by future executives. Managing Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions in the Global Economy uncovers the many ways businesses can manage this new phenomenon. It discusses global crises and their effects on the global economy in terms of inflation and supply chain. Covering topics such as inflationist impact, crisis leadership, and deglobalization, this premier reference source is an essential resource for economists, supply chain specialists, government officials, consultants, business leaders and executives, logistics professionals, IT managers, students and educators of higher education, researchers, and academicians.
| Author | : Mr.Jaromir Benes |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 71 |
| Release | : 2012-08-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475505523 |
At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.
