Stochastic Complexity And Statistics
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Author | : Jorma Rissanen |
Publisher | : World Scientific |
Total Pages | : 191 |
Release | : 1998-10-07 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 9814507407 |
This book describes how model selection and statistical inference can be founded on the shortest code length for the observed data, called the stochastic complexity. This generalization of the algorithmic complexity not only offers an objective view of statistics, where no prejudiced assumptions of 'true' data generating distributions are needed, but it also in one stroke leads to calculable expressions in a range of situations of practical interest and links very closely with mainstream statistical theory. The search for the smallest stochastic complexity extends the classical maximum likelihood technique to a new global one, in which models can be compared regardless of their numbers of parameters. The result is a natural and far reaching extension of the traditional theory of estimation, where the Fisher information is replaced by the stochastic complexity and the Cramer-Rao inequality by an extension of the Shannon-Kullback inequality. Ideas are illustrated with applications from parametric and non-parametric regression, density and spectrum estimation, time series, hypothesis testing, contingency tables, and data compression.
Author | : Jorma Rissanen |
Publisher | : World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated |
Total Pages | : 177 |
Release | : 1989-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9789971508593 |
Author | : Jorma Rissanen |
Publisher | : World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated |
Total Pages | : 188 |
Release | : 1989-08-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9789810203115 |
Author | : Jorma Rissanen |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 145 |
Release | : 2007-12-15 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0387688129 |
No statistical model is "true" or "false," "right" or "wrong"; the models just have varying performance, which can be assessed. The main theme in this book is to teach modeling based on the principle that the objective is to extract the information from data that can be learned with suggested classes of probability models. The intuitive and fundamental concepts of complexity, learnable information, and noise are formalized, which provides a firm information theoretic foundation for statistical modeling. Although the prerequisites include only basic probability calculus and statistics, a moderate level of mathematical proficiency would be beneficial.
Author | : International Business Machines Corporation. Research Division |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 18 |
Release | : 1990 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : M. Reza Rahimi Tabar |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 280 |
Release | : 2019-07-04 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 3030184722 |
This book focuses on a central question in the field of complex systems: Given a fluctuating (in time or space), uni- or multi-variant sequentially measured set of experimental data (even noisy data), how should one analyse non-parametrically the data, assess underlying trends, uncover characteristics of the fluctuations (including diffusion and jump contributions), and construct a stochastic evolution equation? Here, the term "non-parametrically" exemplifies that all the functions and parameters of the constructed stochastic evolution equation can be determined directly from the measured data. The book provides an overview of methods that have been developed for the analysis of fluctuating time series and of spatially disordered structures. Thanks to its feasibility and simplicity, it has been successfully applied to fluctuating time series and spatially disordered structures of complex systems studied in scientific fields such as physics, astrophysics, meteorology, earth science, engineering, finance, medicine and the neurosciences, and has led to a number of important results. The book also includes the numerical and analytical approaches to the analyses of complex time series that are most common in the physical and natural sciences. Further, it is self-contained and readily accessible to students, scientists, and researchers who are familiar with traditional methods of mathematics, such as ordinary, and partial differential equations. The codes for analysing continuous time series are available in an R package developed by the research group Turbulence, Wind energy and Stochastic (TWiSt) at the Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Joachim Peinke. This package makes it possible to extract the (stochastic) evolution equation underlying a set of data or measurements.
Author | : O.E. Barndorff-Nielsen |
Publisher | : CRC Press |
Total Pages | : 306 |
Release | : 2000-08-09 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 9781420035988 |
Complex stochastic systems comprises a vast area of research, from modelling specific applications to model fitting, estimation procedures, and computing issues. The exponential growth in computing power over the last two decades has revolutionized statistical analysis and led to rapid developments and great progress in this emerging field. In Complex Stochastic Systems, leading researchers address various statistical aspects of the field, illustrated by some very concrete applications. A Primer on Markov Chain Monte Carlo by Peter J. Green provides a wide-ranging mixture of the mathematical and statistical ideas, enriched with concrete examples and more than 100 references. Causal Inference from Graphical Models by Steffen L. Lauritzen explores causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems, with focus on the effect of interventions in a given system. State Space and Hidden Markov Models by Hans R. Künschshows the variety of applications of this concept to time series in engineering, biology, finance, and geophysics. Monte Carlo Methods on Genetic Structures by Elizabeth A. Thompson investigates special complex systems and gives a concise introduction to the relevant biological methodology. Renormalization of Interacting Diffusions by Frank den Hollander presents recent results on the large space-time behavior of infinite systems of interacting diffusions. Stein's Method for Epidemic Processes by Gesine Reinert investigates the mean field behavior of a general stochastic epidemic with explicit bounds. Individually, these articles provide authoritative, tutorial-style exposition and recent results from various subjects related to complex stochastic systems. Collectively, they link these separate areas of study to form the first comprehensive overview of this rapidly developing field.
Author | : T. P. Speed |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 29 |
Release | : 1989 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : M.C. Bueso |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : J. Franke |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 266 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 1461212146 |
Complex dynamic processes of life and sciences generate risks that have to be taken. The need for clear and distinctive definitions of different kinds of risks, adequate methods and parsimonious models is obvious. The identification of important risk factors and the quantification of risk stemming from an interplay between many risk factors is a prerequisite for mastering the challenges of risk perception, analysis and management successfully. The increasing complexity of stochastic systems, especially in finance, have catalysed the use of advanced statistical methods for these tasks. The methodological approach to solving risk management tasks may, however, be undertaken from many different angles. A financial insti tution may focus on the risk created by the use of options and other derivatives in global financial processing, an auditor will try to evalu ate internal risk management models in detail, a mathematician may be interested in analysing the involved nonlinearities or concentrate on extreme and rare events of a complex stochastic system, whereas a statis tician may be interested in model and variable selection, practical im plementations and parsimonious modelling. An economist may think about the possible impact of risk management tools in the framework of efficient regulation of financial markets or efficient allocation of capital.