Statistical Methods Applied to Volcanology and Volcanic Hazard Assessment

Statistical Methods Applied to Volcanology and Volcanic Hazard Assessment
Author: Rosa Maria Sobradelo Pérez
Publisher:
Total Pages: 153
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

Disasters are large intractable problems that test the ability of communities and nations to effectively protect their populations and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. The randomness of impacts and problems, and uniqueness of incidents demand dynamic, real-time, effective and cost efficient solutions. For this reason, we need quantitative risk-based methods for decision-making under uncertainty to be developed and applied to volcanology. Volcanic activity is a natural phenomenon that can turn into a disaster under certain conditions. They are natural processes that cannot be controlled, but their potentially disastrous effects can be mitigated. Volcanoes have implicit a natural hazard which can threaten human lives and properties of those communities living near by. The eruptions of volcanoes considered "dormant" or "inactive" have been liable for major disasters in the past. The volcanic hazard from volcanoes with a long term recurrence tends to be ignored, especially when little or no historical data exists. This is the case of Teide - Pico Viejo Stratovolcanoes in the island of Tenerife. Due to the limited scientific observability of the interior of a volcano, there is a lot of uncertainty in forecasting volcanic eruptions. During a volcanic crisis decision-makers need to take important life and death decisions under strict time and uncertainty constrains. They are afraid of getting a decision wrong, causing unnecessary economic disruption and public anxiety and distress. There is an increasing recognition of the need of combining mathematical models, together with statistical and operations research methods to address disaster management. The interdisciplinary science of mathematics applied to the study of volcanology and volcanic hazard is an important approach which will help understand volcanic processes by integrating keen volcanological insights with sound statistical modeling and artful application of computational power. The aim of this thesis is to work with volcanologists to try and address, with the appropriate statistical methods, those questions they raise, and have volcanologists collaborate with statisticians to learn about the advantages in the application of statistical techniques to the interpretation of volcanic data. Here, we propose and analyze different statistical methodologies to interpret volcanic data and assess volcanic hazard. The statistical technique will depend on the nature of the data and the type of problem we want to address. The models will be used to analyze and interpret the historical and geological volcanic data for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (TPV) and the Canary Islands archipelago. The first statistical method is an Elicitation of Expert Judgment using the so-called Classical Model to assign probabilities of occurrence to each possible eruptive scenario that can be outlined from the eruption history of the volcano, and our knowledge of other analogous volcanoes. The aim was to assess the long-term volcanic hazard of TPV, following an unrest episode in 2004 which created discrepancies among scientists regarding the nature of the unrest and the level of hazard. The second statistical method is a Bayesian Inference approach to compute the long-term probability for each volcanic scenario. The idea to use this method came after seeing the limitations on the Classical Model. The third method is a Non-parametric one-way unbalanced ANOVA using the Kruskal - Wallis test. This study was suggested following the publication for the first time of the World Collapse Caldera Database (WCCD) by the Group of Volcanology of Barcelona. The fourth statistical methodology NHGPP (Non-homogeneous generalized Pareto-Poisson process) uses extreme value theory to study eruptive time series combining geological and historical records. This methodology is applied to the Canary Islands eruptive time series to study volcanic recurrence.

Statistics in Volcanology

Statistics in Volcanology
Author: Heidy M. Mader
Publisher: Geological Society of London
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2006
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 9781862392083

Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

Statistics in Volcanology

Statistics in Volcanology
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 285
Release: 2006
Genre: Volcanoes
ISBN: 9781862396234

'Statistics in Volcanology' is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions.

Volcanic Unrest

Volcanic Unrest
Author: Joachim Gottsmann
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 313
Release: 2018-12-18
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 331958412X

This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Installations

Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Installations
Author: IAEA
Publisher: IAEA TECDOC Series
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016
Genre: Nuclear facilities
ISBN: 9789201049162

This publication provides information on detailed methodologies and examples in the application of volcanic hazard assessment to site evaluation for nuclear installations, thereby addressing the recommendations in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21, Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. It demonstrates the practicability of evaluating the recommendations through a systematic volcanic hazard assessment and examples from Member States. The results of this hazard assessment can be used to derive the appropriate design bases and operational considerations for specific nuclear installations.

Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities

Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities
Author: Charles B. Connor
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 671
Release: 2009-08-27
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 0521887976

A summary of the current state-of-the-art in volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment of nuclear facilities for researchers, geologists and engineers.

Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards

Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards
Author: Roberto Scarpa
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 846
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3642800874

By the year 2000, the number of people at risk from volcanic hazards is likely to increase to around half a billion. Since 1980, significant advances have been made in volcano monitoring, the data from which provides the sole scientific basis for eruption prediction. Here, internationally renowned and highly experienced specialists provide 25 comprehensive articles covering a wide range of related topics: monitoring techniques and data analysis; modelling of monitoring data and eruptive phenomena; volcanic hazards and risk assessment; and volcanic emergency management. Selected case histories of recent volcanic disasters, such as Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, demonstrate that effective communication - between scientists, civil authorities, the media and the population at risk - is essential to reducing the danger.

Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera

Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera
Author: Andrea Bevilacqua
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 234
Release: 2016-05-03
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 8876425772

This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.