Stalking The Black Swan
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| Author | : Kenneth A. Posner |
| Publisher | : Columbia University Press |
| Total Pages | : 296 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780231150484 |
While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner's personal experience - and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes "Black Swan" anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.
| Author | : Kenneth A. Posner |
| Publisher | : Columbia University Press |
| Total Pages | : 284 |
| Release | : 2010-03-31 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0231521677 |
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.
| Author | : Andrea Penrose |
| Publisher | : Kensington Books |
| Total Pages | : 369 |
| Release | : 2017-06-27 |
| Genre | : Fiction |
| ISBN | : 1496710789 |
In Regency London, an unconventional scientist and a fearless female artist team up to trap a cold-hearted killer: “Thoroughly enjoyable” (Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author). The Earl of Wrexford possesses a brilliant scientific mind, but boredom and pride lead him to reckless behavior. So when pompous, pious Reverend Josiah Holworthy publicly condemns him for debauchery, Wrexford unsheathes his rapier-sharp wit and strikes back. As their war of words escalates, London’s most popular satirical cartoonist, A.J. Quill, skewers them both. But then the clergyman is found slain in a church—his face burned by chemicals, his throat slashed ear to ear—and Wrexford finds himself the chief suspect. An artist in her own right, Charlotte Sloane has secretly slipped into the persona of her late husband, using his nom de plume, A.J. Quill. When Wrexford discovers her true identity, she fears it will be her undoing. But he has a proposal—use her sources to unveil the clergyman’s clandestine involvement in questionable scientific practices, and unmask the real murderer. Soon Lord Wrexford and the mysterious Mrs. Sloane plunge into a dangerous shadow world hidden among London’s intellectual enclaves to trap a cunning adversary—before they fall victim to the next experiment in villainy . . . “Sharp, engaging characters, rich period detail, and a compellingly twisty plot, Andrea Penrose delivers a winner.” —Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author “Fans of C.S. Harris take note! A riveting ride through Regency London, from the slums of St. Giles, to the mansions of Mayfair.” —Lauren Willig, New York Times–bestselling author “Historical chemistry meets alchemy . . . A delight of a book.&rdquo
| Author | : K. L. Kreig |
| Publisher | : K.L. Kreig |
| Total Pages | : 322 |
| Release | : 2016-09 |
| Genre | : Romance fiction |
| ISBN | : 9781943443147 |
I've loved him as long as I can remember. The gangly boy with big brown eyes and unruly hair who grew up into an intoxicating man. He wears scruff like he invented it and ambles with a swagger that makes panties drop. Killian Shepard. Shep. We grew up together. We played Ghost in the Graveyard. Had our own rock band. It didn't matter that he was five years older than me. It didn't matter that he looked at me as a kid sister even as I grew into woman. It didn't even matter when he left me behind to go to college and start his adult life. He'd be back. He was always meant to be mine. He came back, all right. But instead of smelling of promises, he stunk of betrayal. And he destroyed me-us-the day he married my sister instead of me. So I did the only thing a girl like me in my position could do. I got my revenge. I married his brother, Kael. Now we're one big happy f**king family.
| Author | : Raphael Sabatini |
| Publisher | : House of Stratus |
| Total Pages | : 237 |
| Release | : 2008-01-11 |
| Genre | : Fiction |
| ISBN | : 0755115279 |
When Priscilla Harradine travels back to England on the Centaur she has no cause to expect her journey will be remotely eventful. But also on board is Charles de Bernis - a mysterious and intriguing buccaneer. Just as their friendship blossoms, a dark figure from de Bernis' past emerges to propel them into a thrilling and perilous adventure.
| Author | : Amelinda Bérubé |
| Publisher | : Sourcebooks, Inc. |
| Total Pages | : 250 |
| Release | : 2018-08-07 |
| Genre | : Young Adult Fiction |
| ISBN | : 1492657085 |
Black Swan meets Paranormal Activity in this compelling ghost story about a former dancer whose grip on reality slips when she begins to think a dark entity is stalking her. Something is wrong with Marianne. It's not just that her parents have finally split up. Or that life hasn't been the same since she quit dancing. Or even that her mother has checked herself into the hospital. She's losing time. Doing things she would never do. And objects around her seem to break whenever she comes close. Something is after her. And the only one who seems to believe her is the daughter of a local psychic. But their first attempt at an exorcism calls down the full force of the thing's rage. It demands Marianne give back what she stole. Whatever is haunting her, it wants everything she has—everything it's convinced she stole. Marianne must uncover the truth that lies beneath it all before the nightmare can take what it thinks it's owed, leaving Marianne trapped in the darkness of the other side.
| Author | : Rafael Sabatini |
| Publisher | : Strelbytskyy Multimedia Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 14188 |
| Release | : 2021-02-01 |
| Genre | : Fiction |
| ISBN | : |
Creator of the legendary Captain Blood, Rafael Sabatini is one of the most outstanding authors of historical adventure stories. An Italian-English author, he was called the “Alexander Dumas of modern fiction.” Sabatini was born in Italy but spent much of his youth in England and other European countries. He first achieved fame as a journalist before becoming one of the greatest adventure novelists in the history of world literature. It took Sabatini almost 20 years after publishing his first novel to gain notoriety. Success finally arrived in 1921 with the publication of Scaramouche, a novel about the French Revolution. Soon the author’s pen shifted to tales of the sea – scribbling adventures of free corsairs. Sabatini’s full talent revealed itself in books like The Sea Hawk and The Black Swan. His legendary series featuring Captain Blood became popular the world over. Today, his books are still treasured by readers and have served as the inspiration for dozens of films. THE NOVELS THE LOVERS OF YVONNE THE TAVERN KNIGHT BARDELYS THE MAGNIFICENT THE TRAMPLING OF THE LILIES LOVE-AT-ARMS THE SHAME OF MOTLEY ST. MARTIN’S SUMMER MISTRESS WILDING THE LION’S SKIN THE STROLLING SAINT THE GATES OF DOOM THE SEA HAWK THE SNARE SCARAMOUCHE CAPTAIN BLOOD FORTUNE’S FOOL THE CAROLINIAN BELLARION THE FORTUNATE THE NUPTIALS OF CORBAL THE HOUNDS OF GOD THE ROMANTIC PRINCE THE REAPING THE MINION SCARAMOUCHE THE KING-MAKER THE BLACK SWAN THE STALKING HORSE VENETIAN MASQUE CHIVALRY THE LOST KING THE SWORD OF ISLAM THE MARQUIS OF CARABAS KING IN PRUSSIA THE GAMESTER THE SHORT STORY COLLECTIONS THE JUSTICE OF THE DUKE CAPTAIN BLOOD RETURNS THE FORTUNES OF CAPTAIN BLOOD TALES OF THE BRETHREN OF THE MAIN TURBULENT TALES MISCELLANEOUS SHORT STORIES THE PLAY The Tyrant THE NON-FICTION THE LIFE OF CESARE BORGIA TORQUEMADA AND THE SPANISH INQUISITION: A HISTORY The Historical Nights’ Entertainment: Series 1 The Historical Nights’ Entertainment: Series 2 The Historical Nights’ Entertainment: Series 3 Heroic Lives
| Author | : Robert A. Prentky |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 400 |
| Release | : 2015-06-26 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 1136016724 |
Convicted sex offenders released from custody at the end of their criminal sentences pose a risk for re-offense. In many US states, Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) laws have been enacted that allow for the post-prison preventive detention of high risk sex offenders. SVP laws require the courts to make dispositions that protect the public from harm while at the same time respecting the civil rights of the offender. This book describes these SVP laws, their constitutionality, and aspects of their operation. Courts hear expert risk testimony based heavily on the results of actuarial risk assessment. Problems associated with this testimony include the lack of a theory of recidivism risk, bias due to human decision-making, and the insularity of scholarship and practice along developmental lines. The authors propose changes in legal standards, as well as a unified developmental model that treats sexual violence as an "evolving" condition, with roots traceable to childhood and paths that extend into adolescence and adulthood.
| Author | : Dale Lehman |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 276 |
| Release | : 2016-04-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1439855544 |
This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.
| Author | : Mercedes Lackey |
| Publisher | : Astra Publishing House |
| Total Pages | : 312 |
| Release | : 2000-05-01 |
| Genre | : Fiction |
| ISBN | : 1101119063 |
After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.
