Sparse Macro Factors

Sparse Macro Factors
Author: David Rapach
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

We use machine learning to estimate sparse principal components (PCs) for 120 monthly macro variables spanning 1960:02 to 2018:06 from the FRED-MD database. For comparison, we also extract the first ten conventional PCs from the macro variables. Each of the conventional PCs is a linear combination of all the underlying macro variables, making them difficult to interpret. In contrast, each of the sparse PCs is a sparse linear combination, whose active weights allow for intuitive economic interpretations of the sparse PCs. The first ten sparse PCs can be interpreted as yields, inflation, production, housing, employment, yield spreads, wages, optimism, money, and credit. Innovations to the conventional (sparse) PCs constitute a set of conventional (sparse) macro factors. Robust tests indicate that only one of the conventional macro factors earns a signficant risk premium. In contrast, three of sparse macro factors -- corresponding to yields, housing, and optimism -- earn signficant risk premia. Compared to leading risk factors from the literature, mimicking portfolios for the yields, housing, and optimism factors deliver sizable Sharpe ratios. A four-factor model comprised of the market factor and mimicking portfolio returns for the yields, housing, and optimism factors performs on par with or better than leading multi-factor models from the literature in accounting for numerous anomalies in cross-sectional stock returns.

Geomechanics from Micro to Macro

Geomechanics from Micro to Macro
Author: Kenichi Soga
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 1668
Release: 2014-08-26
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1315737329

Geomechanics from Micro to Macro contains 268 papers presented at the International Symposium on Geomechanics from Micro and Macro (IS-Cambridge, UK, 1-3 September 2014). The symposium created a forum for the dissemination of new advances in the micro-macro relations of geomaterial behaviour and its modelling. The papers on experimental investigati

Analytical Criminology

Analytical Criminology
Author: Karl-Dieter Opp
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 408
Release: 2020-05-05
Genre: Biography & Autobiography
ISBN: 0429648820

There are more than 20 theories that explain crime. Each theory has weaknesses, and no scholar knows which theory is best. To remedy this unsatisfactory situation a new research program of comparative theory testing is proposed. Comparing the theories with each other has not yet been successful. The alternative, suggested in this book, is to show how criminological theories must be modified if they are compared with a general behavioral theory. The book shows under which conditions the major criminological theories provide valid explanations of crime. The latter thus become integrated as parts of the general theory. The general theory that is chosen is a version of the theory of rational action. This is not the problematic version discussed in the literature, but states the real conditions of decision making and, thus, explains when people actually violate the law or remain law-abiding. The general theory is a component of a theoretical approach that explains individual behavior in interaction with societal (macro) conditions. This micro-macro approach is summarized in a proposed structural-cognitive model. This is part of the new program of Analytical Criminology. It suggests empirical theory comparison, process explanations, and micro-macro explanations. The book is not only written for readers who are interested in theories of crime and deviant behavior. It is also a treatise in "analytical" (i.e., rigorous) theory construction and empirical theory comparison.

Theory, Research and Dynamics of Career Wellbeing

Theory, Research and Dynamics of Career Wellbeing
Author: Ingrid L. Potgieter
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 367
Release: 2019-09-18
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 3030281809

This volume offers a new conceptualization of career wellbeing by viewing the construct as an individual’s long-term contentment with their career outcomes, career achievements, career changes and their sustainable employability amidst the complexities of the contemporary and emerging future digital-driven work environment. In support of this view of career wellbeing, the volume constructs theoretical frameworks for “future-fit” career wellbeing in the digital-driven work–life context. The chapters juxtaposition current research trends in terms of future potential directions for research on career wellbeing in Industry 4.0. The volume also critically evaluates the relevance, applicability and utility of the research findings and theoretical premises in various current versus potential Industry 4.0 settings for individuals across the life-span. It offers valuable suggestions for practice and interventions.

Statistical Foundations of Data Science

Statistical Foundations of Data Science
Author: Jianqing Fan
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 752
Release: 2020-09-21
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1466510854

Statistical Foundations of Data Science gives a thorough introduction to commonly used statistical models, contemporary statistical machine learning techniques and algorithms, along with their mathematical insights and statistical theories. It aims to serve as a graduate-level textbook and a research monograph on high-dimensional statistics, sparsity and covariance learning, machine learning, and statistical inference. It includes ample exercises that involve both theoretical studies as well as empirical applications. The book begins with an introduction to the stylized features of big data and their impacts on statistical analysis. It then introduces multiple linear regression and expands the techniques of model building via nonparametric regression and kernel tricks. It provides a comprehensive account on sparsity explorations and model selections for multiple regression, generalized linear models, quantile regression, robust regression, hazards regression, among others. High-dimensional inference is also thoroughly addressed and so is feature screening. The book also provides a comprehensive account on high-dimensional covariance estimation, learning latent factors and hidden structures, as well as their applications to statistical estimation, inference, prediction and machine learning problems. It also introduces thoroughly statistical machine learning theory and methods for classification, clustering, and prediction. These include CART, random forests, boosting, support vector machines, clustering algorithms, sparse PCA, and deep learning.

Advances in Human Factors and System Interactions

Advances in Human Factors and System Interactions
Author: Isabel L. Nunes
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2021-07-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 303079816X

This book reports on innovative system interfaces, with a special emphasis on their design, development and testing, and on improving the interaction and integration with the users. Focusing on the advantages and challenges of virtual, augmented and mixed reality systems, it describes novel interface technologies, together with cutting-edge strategies for improving usability and accessibility, and cover a wide range of applications from business organization to disaster and crises management, from smart manufacturing to assistive technologies and transportation. Based on the AHFE 2021 Conference on Human Factors and Systems Interaction, held virtually on July 25–29, 2021, from USA, the book offers a timely survey on systems interfaces for a more efficient and safer human-system integration, addressing systems engineers, UX researchers and technology users alike.