Sovereign Spreads

Sovereign Spreads
Author: Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2010-05-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455200794

Over the past year, euro area sovereign spreads have exhibited an unprecedented degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from spillovers originating in other sovereigns. The analysis shows that earlier in the crisis, the surge in global risk aversion was a significant factor influencing sovereign spreads, while recently country-specific factors have started playing a more important role. The perceived source of contagion itself has changed: previously, it could be found among those sovereigns hit hard by the financial crisis, such as Austria, the Netherlands, and Ireland, whereas lately the countries putting pressure on euro area government bonds have been primarily Greece, Portugal, and Spain, as the emphasis has shifted towards short-term refinancing risk and long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper concludes that debt sustainability and appropriate management of sovereign balance sheets are necessary conditions for preventing sovereign risk from feeding back into broader financial stability concerns.

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads
Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455252859

This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

Italian Sovereign Spreads

Italian Sovereign Spreads
Author: Ms.Edda Zoli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2013-04-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484351169

Volatility in Italian sovereign spreads has increased since mid-2011. This paper finds that news on the euro area debt crisis and country specific events were important drivers of sovereign spreads. Movements in sovereign spreads affect CDS spreads and bond yields of Italian banks, and are transmitted rapidly to firm lending rates. Banks with lower capital ratios and higher nonperforming loans were found to be more sensitive to swings in sovereign spreads. Credit supply constraints due to bank funding shortages from the sovereign debt crisis were a major factor behind the lending slowdown in late 2011, while in 2012 weak demand appears to have been driving changes in credit more than supply.

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?
Author: Jacopo Cimadomo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2016-05-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484362063

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads
Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455210889

This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?
Author: Jacopo Cimadomo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2016-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475526016

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.

Numerical Fiscal Rules for Economic Unions: the Role of Sovereign Spreads

Numerical Fiscal Rules for Economic Unions: the Role of Sovereign Spreads
Author: Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2021-07-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513584642

We study gains from introducing a common numerical fiscal rule in a “Union” of model economies facing sovereign default risk. We show that among economies in the Union, there is significant disagreement about the common debt limit the Union should implement: the limit preferred by some economies can generate welfare losses in other economies. In contrast, a common sovereign spread limit results in higher welfare across economies in the Union.

The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects

The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects
Author: Mr.Antonio David
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2019-07-02
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1498325580

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal consolidation announcements on sovereign spreads in a panel of 21 emerging market economies during 2000-18. We construct a novel dataset using a global news database to identify the precise announcement date of fiscal consolidation actions. Our results show that sovereign spreads decline significantly following news that austerity measures have been approved by the legislature (congress or parliament), in periods of high sovereign spreads or in countries under an IMF program. In addition, consolidation announcements are less contractionary when sovereign spreads decline, with the reduction in output being half of the counterfactual case in which spreads do not respond to announcements. These results constitute direct evidence that confidence effects, in the form of lower sovereign spreads, are an important transmission channel of fiscal shocks. We also find that the role of confidence effects increases with the level of spreads such that countries with high spread levels stand to benefit the most from putting in place credible austerity packages.

Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets
Author: Mr.Amine Mati
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2008-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451871171

Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, while efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults. The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen.

Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules
Author: Federico Diaz Kalan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2018-04-13
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1484351029

There is evidence that fiscal rules, in particular well-designed rules, are associated with lower sovereign spreads. However, the impact of noncompliance with fiscal rules on spreads has not been examined in the literature. This paper estimates the effect of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) on sovereign spreads of European Union member states. Based on a sample including the 28 European Union countries over the period 1999 to 2016, sovereign spreads of countries placed under an EDP are found to be on average higher compared to countries that are not under an EDP. The interpretation of this result is not straight-forward as different channels may be at play, in particular those related with the credibility and the design of the EU fiscal framework. The specification accounts for typical macroeconomic, fiscal, and financial determinants of sovereign spreads, the System Generalized Method of Moments estimator is used to control for endogeneity, and results are robust to a range of checks on variables and estimators.