Sovereign Ratings
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| Author | : Norbert Gaillard |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 200 |
| Release | : 2011-09-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1461405238 |
The financial difficulties experienced by Greece since 2009 serve as a reminder that countries (i.e., sovereigns) may default on their debt. Many observers considered the financial turmoil was behind us because major advanced countries had adopted stimulus packages to prevent banks from going bankrupt. However, there are rising doubts about the creditworthiness of several advanced countries that participated in the bailouts. In this uncertain context, it is particularly crucial to be knowledgeable about sovereign ratings. This book provides the necessary broad overview, which will be of interest to both economists and investors alike. Chapter 1 presents the main issues that are addressed in this book. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 provide the key notions to understand sovereign ratings. Chapter 2 presents an overview of sovereign rating activity since the first such ratings were assigned in 1918. Chapter 3 analyzes the meaning of sovereign ratings and the significance of rating scales; it also describes the refinement of credit rating policies and tools. Chapter 4 focuses on the sovereign rating process. Chapters 5 and 6 open the black box of sovereign ratings. Chapter 5 compares sovereign rating methodologies in the interwar years with those in the modern era. After examining how rating agencies have amended their methodologies since the 1990s, Chapter 6 scrutinizes rating disagreements between credit rating agencies (CRAs). Chapters 7 and 8 measure the performances of sovereign ratings by computing default rates and accuracy ratios: Chapter 7 looks at the interwar years and Chapter 8 at the modern era. The two chapters assess which CRA assigns the most accurate ratings during the respective periods. Chapters 9 and 10 compare the perception of sovereign risk by the CRAs and market participants. Chapter 9 focuses on the relation between JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global spreads and emerging countries’ sovereign ratings for the period 1993–2007. Chapter 10 compares the eurozone members’ sovereign ratings with Credit Default Swap-Implied Ratings (CDS-IRs) during the Greek debt crisis of November 2009–May 2010.
| Author | : Ahmed Naciri |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 177 |
| Release | : 2016-12-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1317192990 |
The current degradation of sovereign balance sheets raises very real concerns about how sovereign creditworthiness is measured by credit rating agencies. Given the disastrous economic and social effects of any downgrade, the book offers an alternative and calls for more transparency about the quantitative measures used in calibrating the rating process and how sovereign ratings are validated. It argues that oversight is required and procedures improved, including subjecting methodologies of assessing default to more standardization and monitoring. Sovereign Credit Rating explains the process of sovereign creditworthiness assessment and explores the consequences of possible inaccuracies in the process. Developing an innovative new methodology to assess ratings accuracy, it shows that the announcement of each rating action by the major credit rating agencies show alarming inconsistencies. Written by an internationally recognized author and professor, this unique book will be of interest to researchers and advanced students in corporate governance, accounting, public finance and regulation.
| Author | : Ashok Vir Bhatia |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 68 |
| Release | : 2002-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper describes and evaluates the sovereign credit ratings methodologies of Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings. A simple definition of ratings failure-based on ratings stability-is proposed and tested, pointing to falling failure rates, consistent upside bias, and strong interagency correlation. Possible causes of ratings failure are separated into informational, analytical, revenue bias, and other incentive problems, each of which is discussed. The paper seeks to highlight methodological developments after the Asian crisis, particularly with regard to the estimation of contingent liabilities and the assessment of international reserves adequacy.
| Author | : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Lords: European Union Committee |
| Publisher | : The Stationery Office |
| Total Pages | : 52 |
| Release | : 2011-07-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780108473722 |
The EU Economic and Financial Affairs and International Trade Sub-Committee's inquiry into the credit rating agencies' influence on the EU's sovereign debt crisis concludes that their role in the 2008 banking collapse, which was rightly criticised, should not colour assessments of their decisions on EU sovereign debt. The agencies have caused controversy each time they downgraded further the sovereign debt ratings of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. But the Committee says the downgrades reflect the seriousness of the problems in some Member States. The valid charge against the ratings agencies is not that they precipitated or exacerbated the euro area crisis, but rather that they failed to identify risks in some Member States which, in some cases, had been building for many years. Recommendations include: market investors must take responsibility for their own decisions and should not follow the agencies blindly as the basis for investment decisions; EU Governments should focus on correcting the flawed market structures which give undue weight to the rating agencies' opinions; credit rating agencies must learn from their failure to identify mounting risks in some euro area Member States; the European Commission should not press forward with proposals to establish a publicly funded European credit rating agency, but should consider launching a thorough competition inquiry into the credit rating industry; proposals to give sovereigns more advance warning of rating changes are flawed.
| Author | : Laura Jaramillo |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 19 |
| Release | : 2011-03-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1455218987 |
Sovereign investment grade status is often associated with lower spreads in international markets. Using a panel framework for 35 emerging markets between 1997 and 2010, thispaper finds that investment grade status reduces spreads by 36 percent, above and beyond what is implied by macroeconomic fundamentals. This compares to a 5-10 percent reduction in spreads following upgrades within the investment grade asset class, and no impact formovements within the speculative grade asset class, ceteris paribus. While global financial conditions play a central role in determining spreads, market sentiment improves with lower external public debt to GDP levels and higher domestic growth rates.
| Author | : Dilip Ratha |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Access to Finance |
| ISBN | : |
The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a 'B' or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates, registering a sharp rise at the investment grade threshold. Based on these findings, a case can be made in favor of helping poor countries obtain credit ratings not only for sovereign borrowing, but for sub-sovereign entities' access to international debt and equity capital. The rating model along with the stylized relationship between spreads and ratings can be useful for securitization and other financial structures, and for leveraging official aid, for improving borrowing terms in poor countries.
| Author | : Alex Bergen |
| Publisher | : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag) |
| Total Pages | : 49 |
| Release | : 2014-02-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3954896567 |
This study analyzes the determinants of rating changes and the variables' marginal effects on rating change probabilities. Based on the results, it presents transition matrices by computing transition probabilities. Furthermore, this study analyzes subsamples of the data set, conditional on the business cycle and the economic strength of a country, by using interaction effects. The Author of this study thereby verifies whether or how the transition matrices change by including interaction effects. He applies a latent variable approach, using an ordered probit model, to calculate the effects of different variables on the probabilities of rating changes.
| Author | : Daniel Cash |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 151 |
| Release | : 2021-04-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030716937 |
This book details the difference between the two rating industries, but this difference is converging all the time. The concept of investing in a more responsible and sustainable manner is drawing in some of the world’s leading investors and, with it, regulations and policies are developing at the highest levels. However, the market is not getting what it needs to fully submit to the concept of responsible investing. It has called for more to be done from those tasked with injecting information into their processes, and two industries in particular have been identified as being natural partners. It has been suggested that they are on a collision course to serve the mainstream investor, and in this book, that collision course is contextualised, explained, presented, and finally its outcome predicted.
| Author | : Herwig Langohr |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 524 |
| Release | : 2010-04-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470714352 |
Credit rating agencies play a critical role in capital markets, guiding the asset allocation of institutional investors as private capital moves freely around the world in search of the best trade-off between risk and return. However, they have also been strongly criticised for failing to spot the Asian crisis in the early 1990s, the Enron, WorldCom and Parmalat collapses in the early 2000s and finally for their ratings of subprime-related structured finance instruments and their role in the current financial crisis. This book is a guide to ratings, the ratings industry and the mechanics and economics of obtaining a rating. It sheds light on the role that the agencies play in the international financial markets. It avoids the sensationalist approach often associated with studies of rating scandals and the financial crisis, and instead provides an objective and critical analysis of the business of ratings. The book will be of practical use to any individual who has to deal with ratings and the ratings industry in their day-to-day job. Reviews "Rating agencies fulfil an important role in the capital markets, but given their power, they are frequently the object of criticism. Some of it is justified but most of it portrays a lack of understanding of their business. In their book The Rating Agencies and their Credit Ratings, Herwig and Patricia Langohr provide an excellent economic background to the role of rating agencies and also a thorough understanding of their business and the problems they face. I recommend this book to all those who have an interest in this somewhat arcane but extremely important area." -Robin Monro-Davies, Former CEO, Fitch Ratings. "At a time of unprecedented public and political scrutiny of the effectiveness and indeed the basic business model of the Credit Rating industry, and heightened concerns regarding the transparency and accountability of the leading agencies, this book provides a commendably comprehensive overview, and should provide invaluable assistance in the ongoing debate." -Rupert Atkinson, Managing Director, Head of Credit Advisory Group, Morgan Stanley and member of the SIFMA Rating Agency Task Force "The Langohrs have provided useful information in a field where one frequently finds only opinions or misconceptions. They supply a firm base from which to understand changes now underway. A well-read copy of this monograph should be close to the desk of every investor, issuer and financial regulator, legislator or commentator." -John Grout, Policy and Technical Director, The Association of Corporate Treasurers
| Author | : B. Paudyn |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 257 |
| Release | : 2014-06-19 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1137302771 |
Bartholomew Paudyn investigates how governments across the globe struggle to constitute the authoritative knowledge underpinning the political economy of creditworthiness and what the (neoliberal) 'fiscal normality' means for democratic governance.
