Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises
Author: Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2018-07-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484367820

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

Sovereign Debt as a Commodity

Sovereign Debt as a Commodity
Author: Dania Thomas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

The ad hoc institutional configurations that facilitated the resolution of sovereign insolvency for over thirty years are fragmenting. In the absence of an acceptable alternative, the recent pari passu decision reveals the dangers of common law courts pressured to enforce contracts and paper over structural fissures in the market. The courts dismantled international law protections, common law checks and balances, gone beyond precedent to innovate remedies justified by interpreting a clause whose meaning and function was not clearly understood at the time by the contracting parties themselves. They have also strategically 'invented' an inter-creditor obligation to avoid sovereign immunity legislation. This imperils third party property protections and exposes the US clearing system to creditor remedies. This paper takes a step back from this dispute and discusses the unintended (and arguably long term) consequences of judicial intervention, from a contract law perspective. The paper argues that the challenges the courts face in the current context requires them to play an inadvertent, expansive 'regulatory' role. To fulfill this role they must ensure that creditors enjoy their property (debt) without constraints and assume away the externalities that arise from their unlimited enjoyment. In effect enforcement sustains the legal fiction that debt is a commodity. The legal recognition of this fiction obviates negotiated debt workouts, which by definition are premised on a suspension of this commodity form. This paper concludes with a discussion on the nature of legal indeterminacy, dispelling the idea that the possibility of enforcement in sovereign debt markets means we are closer to achieving the legal regime theorised as the neutral backdrop of competitive markets.

Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies

Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies
Author: Thomas McGregor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2019-11-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513516434

How do oil price movements affect sovereign spreads in an oil-dependent economy? I develop a stochastic general equilibrium model of an economy exposed to co-moving oil price and output processes, with endogenous sovereign default risk. The model explains a large proportion of business cycle fluctuations in interest-rate spreads in oil-exporting emerging market economies, particularly the countercyclicallity of interest rate spreads and oil prices. Higher risk-aversion, more impatient governments, larger oil shares and a stronger correlation between domestic output and oil price shocks all lead to stronger co-movements between risk premiums and the oil price.

Sovereign Debt

Sovereign Debt
Author: S. Ali Abbas
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2019-10-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0192591398

The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.

Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention

Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention
Author: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2005-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589063775

The debate on government debt in the context of possible reforms of the international financial architecture has thus far focused on crisis resolution. This paper seeks to broaden this debate. It asks how government debt could be structured to pursue other objectives, including crisis prevention, international risk-sharing, and facilitating the adjustment of fiscal variables to changes in domestic economic conditions. To that end, the paper considers recently developed analytical approaches to improving sovereign debt structure using existing instruments, and reviews a number of proposals--including the introduction of explicit seniority and GDP-linked instruments--in the sovereign context.

Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars

Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars
Author: Mr.Thomas J Sargent
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2019-11-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513516868

World War I created a set of forces that affected the political arrangements and economies of all the countries involved. This period in global economic history between World War I and II offers rich material for studying international monetary and sovereign debt policies. Debt and Entanglements between the Wars focuses on the experiences of the United States, United Kingdom, four countries in the British Commonwealth (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Newfoundland), France, Italy, Germany, and Japan, offering unique insights into how political and economic interests influenced alliances, defaults, and the unwinding of debts. The narratives presented show how the absence of effective international collaboration and resolution mechanisms inflicted damage on the global economy, with disastrous consequences.

Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt

Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2012-12-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475596405

Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.

Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint

Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint
Author: Anthony Crescenzi
Publisher: FT Press
Total Pages: 305
Release: 2012
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0132595214

Since the 1930s, governments have overcome recessions by borrowing and spending to temporarily replace lost consumer and business spending. What happens when they can't do it anymore? In Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint , PIMCO Executive VP Tony Crescenzi offers a sobering tour of today's unprecedented global sovereign debt crisis.