Some Economic Consequences of the Transition from Civil War to Peace

Some Economic Consequences of the Transition from Civil War to Peace
Author: Jean-Paul Azam
Publisher:
Total Pages: 150
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Drawing on evidence from Africa - especially Ethiopia and Uganda - the authors of this volume draw conclusions about economic policy in the aftermath of civil war. A sample of conclusions follows. Civil wars differ from international wars. They are informal, often have no clear beginning and end, weaken rather than strengthen the authority of the state, and leave two unreconciled armies to be demobilized within one territory. Civil wars erode the institutions of civil society, leading to a decline in the stock of social capital, which takes some time to restore. Private investment and government revenue are slow to recover, and military expenditures are not easily reduced. As a result, there is little or no peace dividend in the short run. The period of transition to peace is a particularly suitable time for radical policy reform, despite the high degree of polarization typical in countries engaged in civil war. And speedy reform, far from increasing uncertainty, is likely to reduce it. After a civil war, private agents are fearful both of each other and of the government. This, perhaps even more than physical damage to infrastructure, hinders private-sector-led recovery, as irreversible investment is delayed despite being financeable. The transition to peace is primarily the transition from fear and the defensive responses that became ingrained in wartime. The peace dividend comes as a gradual recovery of confidence induces repatriation of financial and human capital. Such confidence can be boosted by the early sequencing of investment-sensitive policy reforms and by preserving low inflation through direct consumer price index targeting. Lack of confidence can be compensated for by temporary undervaluation of the exchange rate, or however, may prove more difficult to make credibly time-bound. Finally, aid can permit accelerated rehabilitation of the infrastructure (especially transport networks) needed to return to a market economy. Contrary to the studies hypothesis, the authors found that demobilization - at least in Uganda - did not lead to a significant upsurge in insecurity. In the short term, demobilization significantly reduced crime, unless the demobilized lacked access to land. If the demobilized returned to their home areas and were given some assistance, with identifiable exceptions they were able to find income-earning opportunities.

The Economic Consequences of the Peace

The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Author: John Maynard Keynes
Publisher: Simon Publications LLC
Total Pages: 312
Release: 1920
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781931541138

John Maynard Keynes, then a rising young economist, participated in the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 as chief representative of the British Treasury and advisor to Prime Minister David Lloyd George. He resigned after desperately trying and failing to reduce the huge demands for reparations being made on Germany. The Economic Consequences of the Peace is Keynes' brilliant and prophetic analysis of the effects that the peace treaty would have both on Germany and, even more fatefully, the world.

Case Studies in War-to-peace Transition

Case Studies in War-to-peace Transition
Author: Nat J. Colletta
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 378
Release: 1996
Genre: History
ISBN: 9780821336748

World Bank Discussion Paper No. 331. With the assistance of Emilio Mondo, Taimi Sitari, and Tadesse A. Woldu. Provides a detailed analysis of the intricate nature of the political, economic, and sociocultural issues that arise during the transition from war to peace in Ethiopia, Namibia, and Uganda. These countries offer a unique range of conditions and program models, as well as a variety of successes and failures from which to learn. A recently released overview, The Transition from War to Peace in Sub-Saharan Africa (Stock no. 13581; ISBN 0-8213-3581-2), is based on these country studies and a synthesis of reports of demobilization and reintegration programs in several other countries.

The Transition from War to Peace in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Transition from War to Peace in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: Nat J. Colletta
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 100
Release: 1996-01-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9780821335819

Standard Bid Evaluation Form. Contains forms and guides prepared by the World Bank for its borrowers to assist in the evaluation of bids procured through both international competitive bidding and limited international bidding. Also available: French (ISBN 0-8213-3661-4) Stock No. 13661 Spanish (ISBN 0-8213-3662-2) Stock No. 13662

The Aftermath of Civil War

The Aftermath of Civil War
Author: Siyan Chen
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2007
Genre: Civil Conflict
ISBN:

Using an "event-study" methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

Recovery from Armed Conflict in Developing Countries

Recovery from Armed Conflict in Developing Countries
Author: Geoff Harris
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 361
Release: 2002-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134650698

This comprehensive work examines ways in which developing countries may achieve economic, political and social reconstruction in the wake of armed conflict. International researchers discuss such issues as women and children in the recovery process, refugees and the role of aid, the reintegration of ex-combatants and community-led recovery. Case studies focus upon Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, Mozambique, South Africa and Sri Lanka.

The Impact of Economic Reforms on Rural Households in Ethiopia

The Impact of Economic Reforms on Rural Households in Ethiopia
Author: Stefan Dercon
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2002-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780821350348

But the experience of the poor is mixed, with some outperforming all other households and others persisting in poverty. Although economic reforms do not deliver similar benefits to all the poor, there are high costs for withholding reforms. The study also highlights the effects of shocks on households and the need for social protection measures in a poverty reduction strategy."--BOOK JACKET.