Some Contributions of Bayesian and Computational Learning Methods to Portfolio Selection Problems

Some Contributions of Bayesian and Computational Learning Methods to Portfolio Selection Problems
Author: Johann Nicolle
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

The present thesis is a study of different optimal portfolio allocation problems in the case where the appreciation rate, named the drift, of the Brownian motion driving the dynamics of the assets is uncertain. We consider an investor having a belief on the drift in the form of a probability distribution, called a prior. The uncertainty about the drift is managed through a Bayesian learning approach which allows for the update of the drift's prior probability distribution. The thesis is divided into two self-contained parts; the first part being split into two chapters: the first develops the theory and the second contains a detailed application to actual market data. A third part constitutes an Appendix and details the data used in the applications. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to the multidimensional Markowitz portfolio selection problem in the case of drift uncertainty. This uncertainty is modeled via an arbitrary prior law which is updated using Bayesian filtering. We first embed the Bayesian-Markowitz problem into an auxiliary standard control problem for which dynamic programming is applied. Then, we show existence and uniqueness of a smooth solution to the related semi-linear partial differential equation (PDE). In the case of a Gaussian prior probability distribution, the multidimensional solution is explicitly computed. Additionally, we study the quantitative impact of learning from the progressively observed data, by comparing the strategy which updates the initial estimate of the drift, i.e. the learning strategy, to the one that keeps it constant, named the non-learning strategy. Ultimately, we analyze the sensitivity of the gain from learning, called value of information or informative value, with respect to different parameters. Next, we illustrate the theory with a detailed application of the previous results on actual market data. We emphasize the robustness of the value added of learning by comparing learning to non-learning optimal strategies in different investment universes: indices of various asset classes, currencies and smart beta strategies. The second part tackles a discrete-time portfolio optimization problem. Here, the goal of the investor is to maximize the expected utility of the terminal wealth of a portfolio of risky assets, assuming an uncertain drift and a maximum drawdown constraint. In this part, we formulate the problem in the general case, and we solve numerically the Gaussian case with the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) type utility function via a deep learning resolution. Ultimately, we study the sensitivity of the strategy to the degree of uncertainty of the drift and, as a byproduct, give empirical evidence of the convergence of the non-learning strategy towards a no short-sale constrained Merton problem.

Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2019-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262039370

An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Artificial Intelligence in Asset Management

Artificial Intelligence in Asset Management
Author: Söhnke M. Bartram
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
Total Pages: 95
Release: 2020-08-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 195292703X

Artificial intelligence (AI) has grown in presence in asset management and has revolutionized the sector in many ways. It has improved portfolio management, trading, and risk management practices by increasing efficiency, accuracy, and compliance. In particular, AI techniques help construct portfolios based on more accurate risk and return forecasts and more complex constraints. Trading algorithms use AI to devise novel trading signals and execute trades with lower transaction costs. AI also improves risk modeling and forecasting by generating insights from new data sources. Finally, robo-advisors owe a large part of their success to AI techniques. Yet the use of AI can also create new risks and challenges, such as those resulting from model opacity, complexity, and reliance on data integrity.

Financial Decision Making Using Computational Intelligence

Financial Decision Making Using Computational Intelligence
Author: Michael Doumpos
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 336
Release: 2012-07-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461437733

The increasing complexity of financial problems and the enormous volume of financial data often make it difficult to apply traditional modeling and algorithmic procedures. In this context, the field of computational intelligence provides an arsenal of particularly useful techniques. These techniques include new modeling tools for decision making under risk and uncertainty, data mining techniques for analyzing complex data bases, and powerful algorithms for complex optimization problems. Computational intelligence has also evolved rapidly over the past few years and it is now one of the most active fields in operations research and computer science. This volume presents the recent advances of the use of computation intelligence in financial decision making. The book covers all the major areas of computational intelligence and a wide range of problems in finance, such as portfolio optimization, credit risk analysis, asset valuation, financial forecasting, and trading.

Portfolio Decision Analysis

Portfolio Decision Analysis
Author: Ahti Salo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 410
Release: 2011-08-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1441999434

Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.

Portfolio Choice Problems

Portfolio Choice Problems
Author: Nicolas Chapados
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 110
Release: 2011-07-07
Genre:
ISBN: 9781461405788

This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.

Inverse Problems in Portfolio Selection

Inverse Problems in Portfolio Selection
Author: Kaushiki Bhowmick
Publisher:
Total Pages: 116
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

A number of researchers have proposed several Bayesian methods for portfolio selection, which combine statistical information from financial time series with the prior beliefs of the portfolio manager, in an attempt to reduce the impact of estimation errors in distribution parameters on the portfolio selection process and the effect of these errors on the performance of 'optimal' portfolios in out-of-sample-data. This thesis seeks to reverse the direction of this process, inferring portfolio managers' probabilistic beliefs about future distributions based on the portfolios that they hold. We refer to the process of portfolio selection as the forward problem and the process of retrieving the implied probabilities, given an optimal portfolio, as the inverse problem. We attempt to solve the inverse problem in a general setting by using a finite set of scenarios. Using a discrete time framework, we can retrieve probabilities associated with each of the scenarios, which tells us the views of the portfolio manager implicit in the choice of a portfolio considered optimal. We conduct the implied views analysis for portfolios selected using expected utility maximization, where the investor's utility function is a globally non-optimal concave function, and in the mean-variance setting with the covariance matrix assumed to be given. We then use the models developed for inverse problem on empirical data to retrieve the implied views implicit in a given portfolio, and attempt to determine whether incorporating these views in portfolio selection improves portfolio performance out of sample.

Learning and Intelligent Optimization

Learning and Intelligent Optimization
Author: Clarisse Dhaenens
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 324
Release: 2015-06-18
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3319190849

This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Learning and Optimization, LION 9, which was held in Lille, France, in January 2015. The 31 contributions presented were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in this book. The papers address all fields between machine learning, artificial intelligence, mathematical programming and algorithms for hard optimization problems. Special focus is given to algorithm selection and configuration, learning, fitness landscape, applications, dynamic optimization, multi-objective, max-clique problems, bayesian optimization and global optimization, data mining and - in a special session - also on dynamic optimization.