The Global Trade Slowdown

The Global Trade Slowdown
Author: Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2015-01-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498399134

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Inclusive Growth, Full Employment, and Structural Change

Inclusive Growth, Full Employment, and Structural Change
Author: Jesus Felipe
Publisher: Anthem Press
Total Pages: 369
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0857289586

'Inclusive Growth, Full Employment, and Structural Change: Implications and Policies for Developing Asia' discusses policies to achieve inclusive growth in developing Asia, including agriculture, investment, certain state interventions, monetary, fiscal, and the role of the state as employer of last resort. Felipe argues that full employment of the labor force is the key to delivering inclusive growth. Full employment is the most direct way to improve the well-being of the people, especially of the most disadvantaged. Since unemployment and underemployment are pervasive in many parts of the region, Asian leaders must commit to the goal of full employment. The book also analyzes the region's phenomenal growth in recent decades in terms of structural transformation. Accelerating it is vital for the continued growth of developing Asia. But efforts to achieve full employment might be held back given that structural transformation requires massive labor shifts across sectors, and these are difficult to coordinate. Moreover, the goal of full employment was abandoned in the 1970s, and governments and central banks have since concentrated on keeping inflation low.

Independent Commission on Banking final report

Independent Commission on Banking final report
Author: Independent Commission on Banking
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Total Pages: 364
Release: 2011-09-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780108510984

The Independent Commission on Banking's final recommendations aim to create a more stable and competitive basis for UK banking for the long term. The result would be a banking system that is much less likely to cause, or succumb to, financial crises and the huge costs they bring; is self-reliant, so that the taxpayer does not have to bear the losses that banks make; and is effective and efficient at providing the basic banking services of safeguarding retail deposits, operating secure payments systems, and efficiently channelling savings to productive investments in the economy. Stability is crucial and UK banks should have more equity capital and loss-absorbing debt - beyond what has so far been internationally agreed - and their retail banking activities should be structurally separated, by a ring-fence, from wholesale and investment banking activities. The Commission also address competition, which has not been properly effective in UK retail banking. They recommend a seamless switching system based on redirection for personal and small business current accounts, free of cost and risk, complemented by measures to enhance transparency. The new Financial Conduct Authority should have a clear duty to promote effective competition. Structural reform should be complete by the Basel implementation date of 2019 at the latest. These reforms would result in better-capitalised, less leveraged banking more focused on the needs of savers and borrowers in the domestic economy. At the same time UK banks would be free to flourish in global markets, but without UK taxpayer support.

Multisector Growth Models

Multisector Growth Models
Author: Terry L. Roe
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 333
Release: 2009-10-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0387773584

The primary objective of this book is to advance the state of the art in specifying and ?tting to data structural multi-sector dynamic macroeconomic models, and empirically implementing them. The fundamental construct upon which we build is the Ramsey model. A most attractive feature of this model is the insights it provides into the dynamics of an economy in tr- sition to long-run equilibrium. With some exceptions, Ramsey models are highly aggregated – typically single sector models. However, interest often lies in understanding the forces of e- nomic growth across multiple sectors of an economy and on how policy impacts likely play out over time. Such analyses call for moredisaggregatedmodelsthatcanbe?ttocountryorregional data.Thisbookshowshowto:(i)extendthebasicmodeltom- tiple sectors, (ii) how to adapt the basic model to account for policy instruments, and (iii) ?t the model to data, and obtain equilibrium values both forward and backward in time from the data points to which the model is initially ?t.

The Effect of International Monetary Fund and World Bank Programs on Poverty

The Effect of International Monetary Fund and World Bank Programs on Poverty
Author: William Easterly
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2001
Genre: Banco Mundial
ISBN: 0202080110

There is some evidence that IMF and World Bank adjustment lending smooths consumption for the poor, reducing the rise in poverty for any given contraction of the economy but also reducing the fall in poverty for any given expansion. Adjustment lending plays a similar role as inequality, reducing poverty's sensitivity to the economy's aggregate growth rate.

Employment in Crisis

Employment in Crisis
Author: Joana Silva
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 327
Release: 2021-10-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464816913

A region known for its volatility, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has suffered severe economic and social setbacks from crises—including the COVID-19 pandemic. These crises have taken their toll on careers, wage growth, and productivity. Employment in Crisis: The Path to Better Jobs in a Post-COVID-19 Latin America provides new evidence on the effects of crises on the region’s workers and firms and suggests several policy responses that can bolster long-term and inclusive economic growth. This report has three key findings. First, crises lead to persistent employment losses and accelerate structural changes away from the formal sector. This change occurs more through reductions in the creation of formal jobs than through job destruction. Second, some workers recover from crises, while others are permanently scarred by them. Low-skilled workers can suffer up to a decade of lower earnings caused by crises, while high-skilled workers rebound fast, exacerbating the LAC region’s high level of inequality. Formal workers suffer smaller employment and wage losses in localities with higher rates of informality. And the reduced job flows caused by crises decrease welfare, but workers in localities with more job opportunities, whether formal or informal, bounce back better. Third, crises’ cleansing effects can increase efficiency and productivity, but these effects are dampened by the LAC region’s less competitive market structure. Rather than becoming more agile and productive during economic downturns, protected sectors and firms gain market share and crowd out others, trapping valuable resources. This report proposes a three-pronged mix of policies to improve the LAC region’s responses to crises: •Create a more stable macroeconomic environment to smooth the impacts of crises, including automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance and short-term compensation programs; •Increase the capacity of social protection and labor programs to respond to crises and coalesce these programs into systems that complement income support with reemployment assistance and reskilling opportunities; and •Tackle structural issues, including the lack of product market competition and the spatial dimension behind poor labor market adjustment—a “good jobs and good firms†? agenda.

Growth and Structural Transformation

Growth and Structural Transformation
Author: Kwang Suk Kim
Publisher: BRILL
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2020-03-17
Genre: History
ISBN: 1684172195

This study provides a comprehensive overview of Korea’s macroeconomic growth and structural change since World War II, and traces some of the roots of development to the colonial period. The authors explore in detail colonial development, changing national income patterns, relative price shifts, sources of aggregate growth, and sources of sectoral structural change, comparing them with other countries.