Sherman Kent And The Board Of National Estimates
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Author | : Sherman Kent |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 248 |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : Intelligence service |
ISBN | : |
A selection of Kent's recently declassified writings on the occasion of the Conference on Estimating Soviet Military Power, 1950-1984, which Harvard University's Charles Warren Center for Studies in American History and the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence are co-sponsoring in Cambridge in December, 1994.
Author | : Sherman Kent |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 254 |
Release | : 2015-12-08 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1400879159 |
Intelligence work is in some ways like a newspaper or newsmagazine, in some like a business, in some like the research activity of a university; very little of it involves cloaks and daggers. All of it is important to national survival, and should be understood by the citizens of a democracy. In this remarkable book, an able scholar, experienced in foreign intelligence, analyzes all of these varied aspects of what is known as "high-level foreign positive intelligence." Illustrations are drawn from that branch, but the lessons apply to all intelligence, and in fact to all those phases of business, of journalism, and (most importantly) of scholarship, where the problem is to learn what has happened or will happen. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Author | : Donald P. Steury, Editor |
Publisher | : Lulu.com |
Total Pages | : 214 |
Release | : 2011-03-21 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 1257781898 |
These collected essays by Sherman Kent were edited by Donald P. Steury and published in 1994 by the History Staff of the Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington D.C. Kent was chairman of the Board of National Estimates from 1952 - 1967 and these declassified essays represent the essence of his thinking on estimate preparation as well as important historical background on the methodology used before and during his tenure. The foreword is by J. Kenneth McDonald, then (1994) chief of the CIA History Staff and the text includes some security-related redactions. This book, long out of print, is a foundational text in the study of intelligence analysis. For the general non-fiction reading public, Kent's illustrative anecdotes about De Gaulle, Bedell Smith, Dean Acheson, etc., offer color and interest, as does his "lessons learned" essay on analysis failure in predicting Soviet missile deliveries to Cuba.
Author | : National Intelligence Council |
Publisher | : Cosimo Reports |
Total Pages | : 158 |
Release | : 2021-03 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9781646794973 |
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author | : Sherman Kent |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2018 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : National Research Council |
Publisher | : National Academies Press |
Total Pages | : 116 |
Release | : 2011-04-08 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 0309163420 |
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Author | : Dylan Huw Dylan |
Publisher | : Edinburgh University Press |
Total Pages | : 507 |
Release | : 2020-06-18 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 1474428878 |
Since its creation in 1947, the CIA has been at the heart of America's security apparatus. Written by intelligence scholars and experts, The CIA and the Pursuit of Security offers the reader a lively survey of the CIA past and present. The history of the agency is presented through the prism of its declassified documents, with each being supplemented by insightful contextual analysis. The book chronicles the evolution of the CIA, its remarkable successes, clandestine operations, and its ongoing struggle to maintain American security in an age of proliferating threats.
Author | : Thomas Fingar |
Publisher | : Stanford University Press |
Total Pages | : 192 |
Release | : 2011-07-20 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 080477594X |
This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.
Author | : Roger Z. George |
Publisher | : Georgetown University Press |
Total Pages | : 353 |
Release | : 2008-04-09 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1589012399 |
Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.
Author | : Joshua Rovner |
Publisher | : Cornell University Press |
Total Pages | : 276 |
Release | : 2011-07-26 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0801463149 |
What is the role of intelligence agencies in strategy and policy? How do policymakers use (or misuse) intelligence estimates? When do intelligence-policy relations work best? How do intelligence-policy failures influence threat assessment, military strategy, and foreign policy? These questions are at the heart of recent national security controversies, including the 9/11 attacks and the war in Iraq. In both cases the relationship between intelligence and policy broke down—with disastrous consequences. In Fixing the Facts, Joshua Rovner explores the complex interaction between intelligence and policy and shines a spotlight on the problem of politicization. Major episodes in the history of American foreign policy have been closely tied to the manipulation of intelligence estimates. Rovner describes how the Johnson administration dealt with the intelligence community during the Vietnam War; how President Nixon and President Ford politicized estimates on the Soviet Union; and how pressure from the George W. Bush administration contributed to flawed intelligence on Iraq. He also compares the U.S. case with the British experience between 1998 and 2003, and demonstrates that high-profile government inquiries in both countries were fundamentally wrong about what happened before the war.