Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19

Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19
Author: Mr. Sonali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2021-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513587390

This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession
Author: MissNan Li
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2018-05-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484354583

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis

Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
Author: David Rezza Baqaee
Publisher:
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2020
Genre: Coronavirus infections
ISBN:

We study the effects of supply and demand shocks in a general disaggregated model with multiple sectors, factors, and input-output linkages, as well as downward nominal wage rigidities and a zero lower bound constraint. In response to shocks, some sectors become tight and operate at full capacity while others become slack and under-utilize the resources available to them. We use the model to understand how the Covid-19 crisis, an omnibus of various supply and demand shocks, affects output, unemployment, and inflation. Throughout the analysis, we focus on the role of the production network and of the elasticities of substitution. We establish that under some conditions, the details of the production network can be summarized by simple sufficient statistics. We use these sufficient statistics to conduct global comparative statics, and illustrate the intuition for our results using a nonlinear AS-AD representation of the model. Negative sectoral supply shocks and shocks to the sectoral composition of demand are necessarily stagflationary, whereas negative aggregate demand shocks are deflationary. The effects of the former are stronger and the effects of the latter are weaker with stronger complementarities in production and in consumption. These shocks interact and are amplified or mitigated through nonlinearities. We quantify our results using disaggregated data from the U.S.

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2021-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513587900

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets
Author: Cem Çakmaklı
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt

Real Sectoral Spillovers

Real Sectoral Spillovers
Author: Nan Li
Publisher:
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncraticshocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, andevaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. Wefind that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks-which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility-and large spillovers of negative financerelatedshocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significantrole of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) indriving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks tooperate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession themajority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

Global Corporate Stress Tests—Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses

Global Corporate Stress Tests—Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses
Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2021-08-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513590820

Corporate sector vulnerabilities have been a central policy topic since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we analyze some 17,000 publicly listed firms in a sample of 24 countries, and assess their ability to withstand shocks induced by the pandemic to their liquidity, viability and solvency. For this purpose, we develop novel multi-factor sensitivity analysis and dynamic scenario-based stress test techniques to assess the impact of shocks on firm’s ability to service their debt, and on their liquidity and solvency positions. Applying the October 2020 WEO baseline and adverse scenarios, we find that a large share of publicly-listed firms become vulnerable as a result of the pandemic shock and additional borrowing needs to overcome cash shortfalls are large, while firm behavioral responses and policies substantially help overcome the impact of the shock in the near term. Looking forward, while interest coverage ratios tend to improve over time after the initial shock as earnings recover in line with projected macroeconomic conditions, liquidity needs remain substantial in many firms across countries and across industries, while insolvencies rise over time in specific industries. To inform policy debates, we offer an approach to a triage between viable and unviable firms, and find that the needs for liquidity support of viable firms remain important beyond 2020, and that medium-term debt restructuring needs and liquidations of firms may be substantial in the medium-term.

Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era

Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era
Author: Changyong Rhee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 105
Release: 2021-03-05
Genre: Health & Fitness
ISBN: 1513566598

The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.