Robustness and the General Dynamic Factor Model With Infinite-Dimensional Space

Robustness and the General Dynamic Factor Model With Infinite-Dimensional Space
Author: Carlos Trucíos
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

General dynamic factor models have demonstrated their capacity to circumvent the curse of dimensionality in the analysis of high-dimensional time series and have been successfully considered in many economic and financial applications. Being second-order models, however, they are sensitive to the presence of outliers--an issue that has not been analyzed so far in the general case of dynamic factors with possibly infinite-dimensional factor spaces (Forni et al.~2000, 2015, 2017). In this paper, we consider this robustness issue and study the impact of additive outliers on the identification, estimation, and forecasting performance of general dynamic factor models. Based on our findings, we propose robust versions of identification, estimation and forecasting procedures. The finite-sample performance of our methods is evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments and successfully applied to a classical dataset of 115 US macroeconomic and financial time series.

Robust and Multivariate Statistical Methods

Robust and Multivariate Statistical Methods
Author: Mengxi Yi
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2023-04-19
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031226879

This book presents recent developments in multivariate and robust statistical methods. Featuring contributions by leading experts in the field it covers various topics, including multivariate and high-dimensional methods, time series, graphical models, robust estimation, supervised learning and normal extremes. It will appeal to statistics and data science researchers, PhD students and practitioners who are interested in modern multivariate and robust statistics. The book is dedicated to David E. Tyler on the occasion of his pending retirement and also includes a review contribution on the popular Tyler’s shape matrix.

Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-dimensional Factor Space

Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-dimensional Factor Space
Author: Mario Forni
Publisher:
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2015
Genre: Econometric models
ISBN:

Factor models, all particular cases of the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) introduced in Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000), have become extremely popular in the theory and practice of large panels of time series data. The asymptotic properties (consistency and rates) of the corresponding estimators have been studied in Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2004). Those estimators, however, rely on Brillinger's dynamic principal components, and thus involve two-sided filters, which leads to rather poor forecasting performances. No such problem arises with estimators based on standard (static) principal components, which have been dominant in this literature. On the other hand, the consistency of those static estimators requires the assumption that the space spanned by the factors has finite dimension, which severely restricts the generality afforded by the GDFM. This paper derives the asymptotic properties of a semiparametric estimator of the loadings and common shocks based on one-sided filters recently proposed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Zaffaroni (2015). Consistency and exact rates of convergence are obtained for this estimator, under a general class of GDFMs that does not require a finite-dimensional factor space. A Monte Carlo experiment corroborates those theoretical results and demonstrates the excellent performance of those estimators in out-of-sample forecasting.

Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe

Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe
Author: Mahir Binici
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2022-12-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies covering a panel of 30 European countries over the period 2002-2022. We find that while global factors continue to shape inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis, have also gained greater prominence in determining consumer price inflation during the pandemic period. Coupled with increasing persistence in inflation, these structural shifts call for significant and an extended period of monetary tightening and fiscal realignment.

The Robust Maximum Principle

The Robust Maximum Principle
Author: Vladimir G. Boltyanski
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 440
Release: 2011-11-06
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0817681523

Covering some of the key areas of optimal control theory (OCT), a rapidly expanding field, the authors use new methods to set out a version of OCT’s more refined ‘maximum principle.’ The results obtained have applications in production planning, reinsurance-dividend management, multi-model sliding mode control, and multi-model differential games. This book explores material that will be of great interest to post-graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in applied mathematics and engineering, particularly in the area of systems and control.

Time Series in High Dimension: the General Dynamic Factor Model

Time Series in High Dimension: the General Dynamic Factor Model
Author: Marc Hallin
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Total Pages: 764
Release: 2020-03-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9789813278004

Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.

Control and Dynamic Systems V51: Robust Control System Techniques and Applications

Control and Dynamic Systems V51: Robust Control System Techniques and Applications
Author: C.T. Leonides
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 491
Release: 2012-12-02
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0323163068

Control and Dynamic Systems: Advances in Theory and Application, Volume 51: Robust Control System Techniques and Applications Part 2 of 2 discusses system robustness techniques. This volume presents a comprehensive treatment of robust system techniques in nonlinear, linear, and multilinear interval systems. It also covers techniques for dealing with system disturbances, system modeling approximations, and parameter uncertainties. This volume ends by reviewing robustness techniques for systems with structured state space uncertainty. This volume will be of great use as a reference source for mechanical and electrical engineers.