Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty

Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty
Author: Marc Paolo Giannoni
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2006
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN:

This paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward-looking model, when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes. We show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty. Thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations. However uncertainty may amplify the degree of "super-inertia" required by optimal monetary policy. We finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions.

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Second Edition

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Second Edition
Author: Richard T. Froyen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 466
Release: 2019
Genre: Mathematical optimization
ISBN: 1784717193

This book provides a thorough survey of the model-based literature on optimal monetary in a stochastic setting. The survey begins with the literature of the 1970s which focused on the information problem in policy design and extends to the New Keynesian approach of the 1990s which centered on evaluating alternative targeting strategies. New to the second edition is consideration of research since the world financial crisis on the role of financial markets and institutions in the conduct of monetary policy.

Robust Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy

Robust Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy
Author: Hakan Kara
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper explores robust optimal targeting rules in a standard forward looking model when i) policy maker has doubts about the parameters while private agents know the model and ii) policy maker and the private sector share the same doubts. It is shown that, while the robust optimal policy rule are the same in both cases, private sector's behavior, and hence the resulting equilibrium is different. Two distinct sources of parameter uncertainty are considered: When the agents' doubts take the form of uncertainty about the slope of the Phillips curve, robust policy rule prescribes a less aggressive response to deviations of inflation from the target - somewhat contrary to the recent findings in the literature. On the other hand, if the source of uncertainty is imperfect knowledge of persistence of shocks, robust monetary policy calls for a more aggressive response to inflation.

The Inflation-Targeting Debate

The Inflation-Targeting Debate
Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 469
Release: 2007-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226044734

Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.

Applied Quantitative Finance

Applied Quantitative Finance
Author: Wolfgang Karl Härdle
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 452
Release: 2008-08-26
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540691790

Recent years have witnessed a growing importance of quantitative methods in both financial research and industry. This development requires the use of advanced techniques on a theoretical and applied level, especially when it comes to the quantification of risk and the valuation of modern financial products. Applied Quantitative Finance (2nd edition) provides a comprehensive and state-of-the-art treatment of cutting-edge topics and methods. It provides solutions to and presents theoretical developments in many practical problems such as risk management, pricing of credit derivatives, quantification of volatility and copula modelling. The synthesis of theory and practice supported by computational tools is reflected in the selection of topics as well as in a finely tuned balance of scientific contributions on practical implementation and theoretical concepts. This linkage between theory and practice offers theoreticians insights into considerations of applicability and, vice versa, provides practitioners comfortable access to new techniques in quantitative finance. Themes that are dominant in current research and which are presented in this book include among others the valuation of Collaterized Debt Obligations (CDOs), the high-frequency analysis of market liquidity, the pricing of Bermuda options and realized volatility. All Quantlets for the calculation of the given examples are downloadable from the Springer web pages.

Robustness

Robustness
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 453
Release: 2016-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691170975

The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty

Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we propose a novel methodology to analyze optimal policies under model uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconomic models. As an application we assess the relevant sources of uncertainty for the optimal conduct of monetary policy within (parameter uncertainty) and across models (specification uncertainty) using EU 13 data. Parameter uncertainty matters only if the zero bound on interest rates is explicitly taken into account. In any case, optimal monetary policy is highly sensitive with respect to specification uncertainty implying substantial welfare gains of a robust-optimal rule that incorporates this risk. -- Optimal monetary policy ; model uncertainty ; Bayesian model estimation

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 296
Release: 2015-06-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691164789

The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts

Post Walrasian Macroeconomics

Post Walrasian Macroeconomics
Author: David Colander
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2006-07-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139459058

Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.

Robust Monetary Policy with the Cost Channel

Robust Monetary Policy with the Cost Channel
Author: Peter Tillmann
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2007
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN:

Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2. Optimal monetary policy with a cost channel of monetary transmission - 3. Optimal robust policy - 4. Caution, activism, or inactiveness? - 5. Robust policy in a dynamic model - 6. Conclusions.