Risks and Risk Premia in the US Treasury Market

Risks and Risk Premia in the US Treasury Market
Author: Junye Li
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre: Assets (Accounting)
ISBN:

We analyze the risk-return trade-off in the US Treasury market using a term structure model that features volatility-in-mean effects of multiple sources, and yet preserves tractable bond prices. We find a strong positive relation between risks and risk premia over the 1966-2018 period. While interest-rate risk is the main driver of such positive relation, macro risk plays a non-trivial role, and its omission leads to unstable estimates of the trade-off. Notably, macro risk contributes to the surge and consequent fall of risk premia around the 1980s, whereas it moves inversely with risk premia during the recent 'low yield' period.

Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets

Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets
Author: Bala Arshanapalli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper investigates the sources of time-varying risk and risk premia for both the U.S. stock and bond markets. Although a growing literature has emerged that examines the return and volatility characteristics of the U.S. stock and bond markets separately, little work has appeared that models these markets jointly. This paper proposes a model that provides evidence concerning the sources of time varying risk and risk premia in the markets that considers both markets simultaneously. The model captures the change in the risk premium to each market's own volatility risk as well as to the covariance risk for specific events. We test for the effects of macroeconomic news on time-varying volatility as well as time-varying covariance, and whether such news induces time-varying risk premia in either of the markets. We find that stocks, as opposed to bonds exhibit a change in the risk premium on variance risk on PPI announcement dates. There is also evidence of a change in the bond risk premium on covariance risk on macroeconomic news announcement dates. Employment reports and PPI releases appear as events inducing time-varying conditional variance for stock, Treasury Notes, as well as Treasury Bond returns. Finally, the results do not support the conjecture that conditional covariance of stock and bond returns falls on announcement days.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Risk and Return for Regulated Industries

Risk and Return for Regulated Industries
Author: Bente Villadsen
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 362
Release: 2017-04-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128125888

Risk and Return for Regulated Industries provides a much-needed, comprehensive review of how cost of capital risk arises and can be measured, how the special risks regulated industries face affect fair return, and the challenges that regulated industries are likely to face in the future. Rather than following the trend of broad industry introductions or textbook style reviews of utility finance, it covers the topics of most interest to regulators, regulated companies, regulatory lawyers, and rate-of-return analysts in all countries. Accordingly, the book also includes case studies about various countries and discussions of the lessons international regulatory procedures can offer. - Presents a unified treatment of the regulatory principles and practices used to assess the required return on capital - Addresses current practices before exploring the ways methods play out in practice, including irregularities, shortcomings, and concerns for the future - Focuses on developed economies instead of providing a comprehensive global reviews - Foreword by Stewart C. Myers

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

The exposure of U.S. Treasury bonds to the stock market has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1960-2011, it was unusually high in the 1980s and negative in the 2000s, a period during which Treasury bonds enabled investors to hedge macroeconomic risks. This paper explores the effects of monetary policy parameters and macroeconomic shocks on nominal bond risks, using a New Keynesian model with habit formation and discrete regime shifts in 1979 and 1997. The increase in bond risks after 1979 is attributed primarily to a shift in monetary policy towards a more anti-inflationary stance, while the more recent decrease in bond risks after 1997 is attributed primarily to an increase in the persistence of monetary policy interacting with continued shocks to the central bank's inflation target. Endogenous responses of bond risk premia amplify these effects of monetary policy on bond risks.

Market Risk Premium

Market Risk Premium
Author: Pablo Fernandez
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

The market risk premium is one of the most important but elusive parameters in finance. It is also called equity premium, market premium and risk premium. The term market risk premium is difficult to understand because it is used to designate three different concepts:1. Required market risk premium. It is the incremental return of a diversified portfolio (the market) over the risk-free rate (return of treasury bonds) required by an investor. It is needed for calculating the required return to equity (cost of equity).2. Historical market risk premium. It is the historical differential return of the stock market over treasury bonds.3. Expected market risk premium. It is the expected differential return of the stock market over treasury bonds.Many authors and finance practitioners assume that expected market risk premium is equal to the historical market risk premium and to the required market risk premium. The CAPM assumes that the required market risk premium is equal to the expected market risk premium. The three concepts are different. The historical market risk premium is equal for all investors, but the required and the expected market risk premium are different for different investors. We also claim that there is no required market risk premium for the market as a whole: different investors use different required market risk premiums.

Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks

Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks
Author: Scott Joslin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by real output and inflation risks that are unspanned by (imperfectly correlated with) information about the shape of the Treasury yield curve. Our model reveals that, over the period 1985-2007, these unspanned macro risks accounted for a large portion of the variation in forward terms premiums, and there was pronounced cyclical variation in the market prices of level and slope risks. We compare fitted term premiums for the post-2007 crisis period to those from a model with spanned macro risks, and use our findings to reassess some of Chairman Bernanke's remarks on the interplay between term premiums, the shape of the yield curve, and the macroeconomy.

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Our new model of consumption-based habit formation preferences generates loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics and time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free interest rate takes the form of an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. Estimating the model separately for 1979-2001 and 2001-2011 explains why the exposure of US Treasury bonds to the stock market changed from positive to negative. A change in the comovement between inflation and the output gap explains changing bond risks, but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model.