A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium
Author: Emanuel Kopp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2018-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484363671

In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.

Term Structure of Interest Rates

Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Burton Gordon Malkiel
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 294
Release: 2015-12-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400879787

Can expectations alone explain the yield differentials among bonds of different maturities? To what extend do attitudes toward risk and transactions costs influence the behavior of bond investors? Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to "twist" the interest-rate structure in accordance with its policy objectives? These are among the questions treated. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Rajna Gibson
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 171
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601983727

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.

Interest Rate Dynamics, Derivatives Pricing, and Risk Management

Interest Rate Dynamics, Derivatives Pricing, and Risk Management
Author: Lin Chen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 364246825X

There are two types of tenn structure models in the literature: the equilibrium models and the no-arbitrage models. And there are, correspondingly, two types of interest rate derivatives pricing fonnulas based on each type of model of the tenn structure. The no-arbitrage models are characterized by the work of Ho and Lee (1986), Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992), Hull and White (1990 and 1993), and Black, Dennan and Toy (1990). Ho and Lee (1986) invent the no-arbitrage approach to the tenn structure modeling in the sense that the model tenn structure can fit the initial (observed) tenn structure of interest rates. There are a number of disadvantages with their model. First, the model describes the whole volatility structure by a sin gle parameter, implying a number of unrealistic features. Furthennore, the model does not incorporate mean reversion. Black-Dennan-Toy (1990) develop a model along tbe lines of Ho and Lee. They eliminate some of the problems of Ho and Lee (1986) but create a new one: for a certain specification of the volatility function, the short rate can be mean-fteeting rather than mean-reverting. Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) (HJM) construct a family of continuous models of the term struc ture consistent with the initial tenn structure data.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia
Author: Felix Geiger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 320
Release: 2011-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642215750

The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.