Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets

Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets
Author: Mr.Stephan Danninger
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2005-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451860331

Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive.

Management Earnings Forecasts as a Performance Target in Executive Compensation Contracts

Management Earnings Forecasts as a Performance Target in Executive Compensation Contracts
Author: Shota Otomasa
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper investigates whether and how Japanese firms use management earnings forecasts as a performance target for determining executive cash compensation. Consistent with the implications of the agency theory, we find that the sensitivity of executive cash compensation varies with the extent to which realized earnings exceed initial management forecasts. In particular, we find that the executive cash compensation is positively related to management forecast error (MFE) for a sample of Japanese firms comprising 15,941 firm-year observations from 2005 to 2013. Moreover, we show that the relationship between executive cash compensation and MFE strengthens (weakens) when current realized earnings exceed (fall short of) aggressive initial forecasts. In additional analysis, we find that pay-for-performance sensitivity is weaker for extremely positive MFEs due to the ceiling on total cash compensation. Overall, we find that initial management forecasts can be used as a performance target in executive compensation contracts. These findings also suggest that management earnings forecasts are important for improving contract efficiency as well as for providing useful information to investors in the capital market.

Are Long-term Earnings Targets Forecasts?

Are Long-term Earnings Targets Forecasts?
Author: Heidi A. Packard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper examines whether earnings targets used in long-term performance-based compensation plans predict future performance. Using a sample of targets from long-term grants made to CEOs from 2007 to 2012, I find that earnings targets provide information about future earnings outcomes; however, analysts do not respond to the information targets provide at the time of disclosure. Rather, I find analysts primarily adjust their expectations in the year of the performance period. The information value of targets is robust to variation in crosssectional factors such as monitoring and financial reporting concerns, and concentrated in cases where agency conflicts are low and traditional management forecasts are not available. To my knowledge, this analysis is the first to document a forecasting role for the long-term targets used in earnings-based compensation plans.

Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs

Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs
Author: Mikhail Golosov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2002-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.

Setting Performance Targets

Setting Performance Targets
Author: Carolyn Stringer
Publisher: Business Expert Press
Total Pages: 157
Release: 2012-01-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1606491385

Targets are an important part of our work life, whether we are setting them or meeting them. Target setting forms part of the budgeting process and the performance management of business units and individuals. Unfortunately the behavioral impacts of target setting on performance are not well understood, and this can lead to serious consequences such as game playing. Target setting is an under-researched area. This book will help you fill the gap in target setting for performance. The pivotal issue in target setting is that it is an art as well as a science. Perhaps more of an art, requiring a balance between the psychologies of the people taking initiatives, the science of estimating probabilities and aligning with strategies, coupled with the effects of incentives. Another feature of this book is how the authors drew on ideas and research across disciplines, which is rarely done in this field. Inside this book, you will be introduced to some of the important methods in target setting such as forecasting, sensitivity analysis, and probability analysis; all of which include practical examples to show how these techniques can be directly applied. In the end, you'll learn how interrelated the various parts of organizational activities are and how they impact on each other, which is important since target setting must include an understanding of the organizational context (e.g., people, competitive environment, structure, strategy) as well as the impact of incentive compensation and information flows.

Key Performance Indicators for Government and Non Profit Agencies

Key Performance Indicators for Government and Non Profit Agencies
Author: David Parmenter
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 336
Release: 2012-03-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118235304

Winning techniques and strategies for nonprofits and government agencies in creating successful and critical key performance indicators By exploring measures that have transformed businesses, David Parmenter has developed a methodology that is breathtaking in its simplicity and yet profound in its impact. Key Performance Indicators for Government and Nonprofit Agencies: Implementing Winning KPIs is a proactive guide representing a significant shift in the way KPIs are developed and used, with an abundance of implementation tools for government agencies and nonprofit groups. Implementation variations and short cuts for government and not-for-profit organizations How to brainstorm performance measures Templates for reporting performance measures A resource kit for a consultant who is acting as a coach / facilitator to the in-house project team Also by David Parmenter: Key Performance Indicators: Developing, Implementing, and Using Winning KPIs, Second Edition Filled with numerous case studies and checklists to help readers develop their KPIs, this book shows government agencies and nonprofits how to select and implement winning key performance indicators to ensure that their performance management initiatives are successful.

Equity Valuation and Analysis with EVal

Equity Valuation and Analysis with EVal
Author: Russell James Lundholm
Publisher: McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2007
Genre: Business enterprises
ISBN: 9780073309699

While focusing on the underlying theories of financial analysis and valuation, this work aims to answer the question, "What is this company really worth?". It takes the view that sound forecasts of financial statements are the key input to a good valuation, and that other aspects of the valuation process are mechanical.

Future Ready

Future Ready
Author: Steve Morlidge
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2010-01-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470747056

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group