Option Pricing with Unobserved and Regime-Switching Volatility

Option Pricing with Unobserved and Regime-Switching Volatility
Author: Sean D. Campbell
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we use a regime-switching process to model the unobserved volatility of the underlying asset and derive a closed-form, risk-neutral option pricing formula. Specifically, our model implies the state price density (SPD) is a time-varying mixture of normals which can provide for time-varying excess kurtosis and skewness as agents learn about the state of volatility from realized returns. Furthermore, we show that our model generates the kinds of volatility quot;smilesquot; commonly found in option markets. We apply our two and three regime models to weekly Samp;P 500 option data and find our model fits the data better than other popular pricing models. Additionally, we find evidence that stock returns can be well-described by a markov switching framework with a very persistent low volatility regime followed by a less persistent moderate volatility regime and a highly non-persistent crash regime. Our estimation results don't suffer the so called quot;Peso Problemquot; as they come from option prices instead of the observed stock returns.

Option Pricing Under Regime Switching (analytical, PDE, and FFT Methods)

Option Pricing Under Regime Switching (analytical, PDE, and FFT Methods)
Author: Mohammad Yousef Akhavein Sohrabi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

Although globally used in option pricing, the Black-Scholes model has not been able to reflect the evolution of stocks in the real world. A regime-switching model which allows jumps in the underlying asset prices and the parameters of the corresponding stochastic process is more accurate. We evaluate the analytical solution for pricing of European options under a two-state regime switching model. Both the convergence of the analytical solution and the feature of implied volatility are investigated through numerical examples.

A Direct Solution Method for Pricing Options in Regime-Switching Models

A Direct Solution Method for Pricing Options in Regime-Switching Models
Author: Masahiko Egami
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

Pricing financial or real options with arbitrary payoffs in regime-switching models is an important problem in finance. Mathematically, it is to solve, under certain standard assumptions, a general form of optimal stopping problems in regime-switching models. In this article, we reduce an optimal stopping problem with an arbitrary value function in a two-regime environment to a pair of optimal stopping problems without regime switching. We then propose a method for finding optimal stopping rules using the techniques available for non-switching problems. In contrast to other methods, our systematic solution procedure is more direct since we first obtain the explicit form of the value functions. In the end, we discuss an option pricing problem which may not be dealt with by the conventional methods, demonstrating the simplicity of our approach.

Option Pricing and Hedging Analysis Under Regime-switching Models

Option Pricing and Hedging Analysis Under Regime-switching Models
Author: Chao Qiu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 181
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis explores option pricing and hedging in a discrete time regime-switching environment. If the regime risk cannot be hedged away, then we cannot ignore this risk and use the Black-Scholes pricing and hedging framework to generate a unique pricing and hedging measure. We develop a risk neutral pricing measure by applying an Esscher Transform to the real world asset price process, with the focus on the issue of incompleteness of the market. The Esscher transform turns out to be a convenient and effective tool for option pricing under the discrete time regime switching models. We apply the pricing measure to both single variate European options and multivariate options. To better understand the effect of the pricing method, we also compared the results with those generated from two other risk neutral methods: the Black-Scholes model, and the natural equivalent martingale method. We further investigate the difference in hedging associated with different pricing measures. This is of interest when the choice of pricing method is uncertain under regime switching models. We compare four hedging strategies: delta hedging for the three risk neutral pricing methods under study, and mean variance hedging. We also develop a more general tool of tail ordering for hedging analysis in a general incomplete market with the uncertainty of the risk neutral measures. As a result of the analysis, we propose that pricing and hedging using the Esscher transform may be an effective strategy for a market where the regime switching process brings uncertainty.

Stochastic Analysis, Stochastic Systems, and Applications to Finance

Stochastic Analysis, Stochastic Systems, and Applications to Finance
Author: Allanus Hak-Man Tsoi
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2011
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814355712

Pt. I. Stochastic analysis and systems. 1. Multidimensional Wick-Ito formula for Gaussian processes / D. Nualart and S. Ortiz-Latorre. 2. Fractional white noise multiplication / A.H. Tsoi. 3. Invariance principle of regime-switching diffusions / C. Zhu and G. Yin -- pt. II. Finance and stochastics. 4. Real options and competition / A. Bensoussan, J.D. Diltz and S.R. Hoe. 5. Finding expectations of monotone functions of binary random variables by simulation, with applications to reliability, finance, and round robin tournaments / M. Brown, E.A. Pekoz and S.M. Ross. 6. Filtering with counting process observations and other factors : applications to bond price tick data / X. Hu, D.R. Kuipers and Y. Zeng. 7. Jump bond markets some steps towards general models in applications to hedging and utility problems / M. Kohlmann and D. Xiong. 8. Recombining tree for regime-switching model : algorithm and weak convergence / R.H. Liu. 9. Optimal reinsurance under a jump diffusion model / S. Luo. 10. Applications of counting processes and martingales in survival analysis / J. Sun. 11. Stochastic algorithms and numerics for mean-reverting asset trading / Q. Zhang, C. Zhuang and G. Yin

Ruin Probabilities

Ruin Probabilities
Author: S?ren Asmussen
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 621
Release: 2010
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9814282529

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cram‚r?Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber?Shiu functions and dependence.

Efficient Asian Option Pricing Under Regime Switching Jump Diffusions and Stochastic Volatility Models

Efficient Asian Option Pricing Under Regime Switching Jump Diffusions and Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Justin Kirkby
Publisher:
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

Utilizing frame duality and a FFT-based implementation of density projection we develop a novel and efficient transform method to price Asian options for very general asset dynamics, including regime switching Levy processes and other jump diffusions as well as stochastic volatility models with jumps. The method combines Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) approximation, with Fourier pricing techniques. In particular, our method encompasses Heston, Hull-White, Stein-Stein, 3/2 model as well as recently proposed Jacobi, alpha-Hypergeometric, and 4/2 models, for virtually any type of jump amplitude distribution in the return process. This framework thus provides a unified approach to pricing Asian options in stochastic jump diffusion models and is readily extended to alternative exotic contracts. We also derive a characteristic function recursion by generalizing the Carverhill-Clewlow factorization which enables the application of transform methods in general. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the method. Various extensions of this method have since been developed, including the pricing of barrier, American, and realized variance derivatives.