Reducing Uncertainty in High-resolution Sea Ice Models

Reducing Uncertainty in High-resolution Sea Ice Models
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system, reflecting a significant amount of solar radiation, insulating the ocean from the atmosphere and influencing ocean circulation by modifying the salinity of the upper ocean. The thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice have shown a significant decline in recent decades with implications for global climate as well as regional geopolitics. Increasing interest in exploration as well as climate feedback effects make predictive mathematical modeling of sea ice a task of tremendous practical import. Satellite data obtained over the last few decades have provided a wealth of information on sea ice motion and deformation. The data clearly show that ice deformation is focused along narrow linear features and this type of deformation is not well-represented in existing models. To improve sea ice dynamics we have incorporated an anisotropic rheology into the Los Alamos National Laboratory global sea ice model, CICE. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) to determine the impact of material parameters on sea ice response functions. Two material strength parameters that exhibited the most significant impact on responses were further analyzed to evaluate their influence on quantitative comparisons between model output and data. The sensitivity analysis along with ten year model runs indicate that while the anisotropic rheology provides some benefit in velocity predictions, additional improvements are required to make this material model a viable alternative for global sea ice simulations.

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting
Author: Tom Carrieres
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2017-10-05
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1108417426

A comprehensive overview of the science involved in automated prediction of sea ice, for sea ice analysts, researchers, and professionals.

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting
Author: Tom Carrieres
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2017-10-05
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1108279546

This book provides an advanced introduction to the science behind automated prediction systems, focusing on sea ice analysis and forecasting. Starting from basic principles, fundamental concepts in sea ice physics, remote sensing, numerical methods, and statistics are explained at an accessible level. Existing operational automated prediction systems are described and their impacts on information providers and end clients are discussed. The book also provides insight into the likely future development of sea ice services and how they will evolve from mainly manual processes to increasing automation, with a consequent increase in the diversity and information content of new ice products. With contributions from world-leading experts in the fields of sea ice remote sensing, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and verification and operational prediction, this comprehensive reference is ideal for students, sea ice analysts, and researchers, as well as decision-makers and professionals working in the ice service industry.

Enhancing the Resolution of Sea Ice in Long-term Global Ocean General Circulation Model (gcm) Integrations

Enhancing the Resolution of Sea Ice in Long-term Global Ocean General Circulation Model (gcm) Integrations
Author: Joong Tae Kim
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

Open water in sea ice, such as leads and polynyas, plays a crucial role in determining the formation of deep- and bottom-water, as well as their long-term global properties and circulation. Ocean general circulation models (GCMs) designed for studies of the long-term thermohaline circulation have typically coarse resolution, making it inevitable to parameterize subgrid-scale features such as leads and convective plumes. In this study, a hierarchy of higher-resolution sea-ice models is developed to reduce uncertainties due to coarse resolution, while keeping the ocean component at coarse resolution to maintain the efficiency of the GCM to study the long-term deep-ocean properties and circulation. The higher-resolved sea-ice component is restricted to the Southern Ocean. Compared with the coarse sea-ice model, the intermediate, higher-resolution version yields more detailed coastal polynyas, a realistically sharp ice edge, and an overall enhanced lead fraction. The latter gives enhanced rates of Antarctic Bottom Water formation through enhanced near-boundary convection. Sensitivity experiments revealed coastal katabatic winds accounted for in the higher resolution version, are the main reason for producing such an effect. For a more realistic coastline, satellite passive-microwave data for fine-grid land/ice-shelf - sea-ice / ocean boundary were used. With a further enhancement of the resolution of the Southern Ocean's sea-ice component, a grid spacing of 22 km is reached. This is about the size of the pixel resolution of satellite-passive microwave data from which ice concentration is retrieved. This product is used in this study to validate the sea-ice component of the global ocean GCM. The overall performance of the high-resolution sea-ice component is encouraging, particularly the representation of the crucial coastal polynyas. Enhancing the resolution of the convection parameterization reduces spurious coarse-grid polynyas. Constraining the upper-ocean temperature and modifying the plume velocity removes unrealistic small-scale convection within the ice pack. The observed highfrequency variability along the ice edge is to some extent captured by exposing the ice pack to upper-ocean currents that mimic tidal variability. While these measures improve several characteristics of the Southern Ocean sea-ice pack, they deteriorate the global deepocean properties and circulation, calling for further refinements and tuning to arrive at presently observed conditions.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Arctic Sea Ice Decline
Author: Eric T. DeWeaver
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 431
Release: 2013-05-28
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1118671589

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 180. This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

Development, Sensitivity Analysis, and Uncertainty Quantification of High-fidelity Arctic Sea Ice Models

Development, Sensitivity Analysis, and Uncertainty Quantification of High-fidelity Arctic Sea Ice Models
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and due to feedback effects the Arctic ice cover is changing rapidly. Predictive mathematical models are of paramount importance for accurate estimates of the future ice trajectory. However, the sea ice components of Global Climate Models (GCMs) vary significantly in their prediction of the future state of Arctic sea ice and have generally underestimated the rate of decline in minimum sea ice extent seen over the past thirty years. One of the contributing factors to this variability is the sensitivity of the sea ice to model physical parameters. A new sea ice model that has the potential to improve sea ice predictions incorporates an anisotropic elastic-decohesive rheology and dynamics solved using the material-point method (MPM), which combines Lagrangian particles for advection with a background grid for gradient computations. We evaluate the variability of the Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE code and the MPM sea ice code for a single year simulation of the Arctic basin using consistent ocean and atmospheric forcing. Sensitivities of ice volume, ice area, ice extent, root mean square (RMS) ice speed, central Arctic ice thickness, and central Arctic ice speed with respect to ten different dynamic and thermodynamic parameters are evaluated both individually and in combination using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA). We find similar responses for the two codes and some interesting seasonal variability in the strength of the parameters on the solution.

Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Climate System Models

Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Climate System Models
Author: Rucong Yu
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 265
Release: 2016-01-11
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9811000336

This book is based on the project “Development and Validation of High Resolution Climate System Models” with the support of the National Key Basic Research Project under grant No. 2010CB951900. It demonstrates the major advances in the development of new, dynamical Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) and Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) cores that are suitable for high resolution modeling, the improvement of model physics, and the design of a flexible, multi-model ensemble coupling framework. It is a useful reference for graduate students, researchers and professionals working in the related areas of climate modeling and climate change. Prof. Rucong Yu works at the China Meteorological Administration; Prof. Tianjun Zhou works at LASG, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Tongwen Wu works at Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration; Associate Prof. Wei Xue works at the Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University; Prof. Guangqing Zhou works at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Microwave Remote Sensing of Sea Ice

Microwave Remote Sensing of Sea Ice
Author: Frank D. Carsey
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Total Pages: 466
Release: 1992-04-08
Genre: Science
ISBN: 087590033X

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 68. Human activities in the polar regions have undergone incredible changes in this century. Among these changes is the revolution that satellites have brought about in obtaining information concerning polar geophysical processes. Satellites have flown for about three decades, and the polar regions have been the subject of their routine surveillance for more than half that time. Our observations of polar regions have evolved from happenstance ship sightings and isolated harbor icing records to routine global records obtained by those satellites. Thanks to such abundant data, we now know a great deal about the ice-covered seas, which constitute about 10% of the Earth's surface. This explosion of information about sea ice has fascinated scientists for some 20 years. We are now at a point of transition in sea ice studies; we are concerned less about ice itself and more about its role in the climate system. This change in emphasis has been the prime stimulus for this book.

Quantifying Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Sea Ice Models

Quantifying Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Sea Ice Models
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 5
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

Initializing Sea Ice Thickness and Quantifying Uncertainty in Seasonal Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice

Initializing Sea Ice Thickness and Quantifying Uncertainty in Seasonal Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice
Author: Arlan Dirkson
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Arctic sea ice has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent decades, including a substantial reduction in sea ice extent in summer months. Such changes, combined with relatively recent advancements in seasonal (1-12 months) to decadal forecasting, have prompted a rapidly-growing body of research on forecasting Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales. These forecasts are anticipated to benefit a vast array of end-users whose activities are dependent on Arctic sea ice conditions. The research goal of this thesis is to address fundamental challenges pertaining to seasonal forecasts of Arcitc sea ice, with a particular focus placed on improving operational sea ice forecasts in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). Seasonal forecasts are strongly dependent on the accuracy of observations used as initial condition inputs. A key challenge initializing Arctic sea ice is the sparse availability of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. I present on the development of three statistical models that can be used for estimating Arctic SIT in real time for sea ice forecast initialization. The three statistical models are shown to vary in their ability to capture the recent thinning of sea ice, as well as their ability to capture interannual variations in SIT anomalies; however, each of the models is shown to dramatically improve the representation of SIT compared to the climatological SIT estimates used to initialize CanSIPS. I conduct a thorough assessment of sea ice hindcast skill using the Canadian Climate Model, version 3 (one of two models used in CanSIPS), in which the dependence of hindcast skill on SIT initialization is investigated. From this assessment, it can be concluded that all three statistical models are able to estimate SIT sufficiently to improve hindcast skill relative to the climatological initialization. However, the accuracy with which the initialization fields represent both the thinning of the ice pack over time and interannual variability impacts predictive skill for pan-Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and regional sea ice concentration (SIC), with the most robust improvements obtained with two statistical models that adequately represent both processes. The final goal of this thesis is to improve the quantification of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice coverage. Information regarding forecast uncertainty is crucial for end-users who want to quantify the risk associated with trusting a particular forecast. I develop statistical post-processing methodology for improving probabilistic forecasts of Arctic SIC. The first of these improvements is intended to reduce sampling uncertainty by fitting ensemble SIC forecasts to a parametric probability distribution, namely the zero- and one- inflated beta (BEINF) distribution. It is shown that overall, probabilistic forecast skill is improved using the parametric distribution relative to a simpler count-based approach; however, model biases can degrade this skill improvement. The second of these improvements is the introduction of a novel calibration method, called trend-adjusted quantile mapping (TAQM), that explicitly accounts for SIC trends and is specifically designed for the BEINF distribution. It is shown that applying TAQM greatly reduces model errors, and results in probabilistic forecast skill that generally surpasses that of a climatological reference forecast, and to some degree that of a trend-adjusted climatological reference forecast, particularly at shorter lead times.