Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 350
Release: 2015-07-24
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0262331713

An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

IJCAI-97

IJCAI-97
Author: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann
Total Pages: 1720
Release: 1997
Genre: Artificial intelligence
ISBN: 9781558604803

Bayesian Reinforcement Learning

Bayesian Reinforcement Learning
Author: Mohammad Ghavamzadeh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 146
Release: 2015-11-18
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9781680830880

Bayesian methods for machine learning have been widely investigated, yielding principled methods for incorporating prior information into inference algorithms. This monograph provides the reader with an in-depth review of the role of Bayesian methods for the reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm. The major incentives for incorporating Bayesian reasoning in RL are that it provides an elegant approach to action-selection (exploration/exploitation) as a function of the uncertainty in learning, and it provides a machinery to incorporate prior knowledge into the algorithms. Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey first discusses models and methods for Bayesian inference in the simple single-step Bandit model. It then reviews the extensive recent literature on Bayesian methods for model-based RL, where prior information can be expressed on the parameters of the Markov model. It also presents Bayesian methods for model-free RL, where priors are expressed over the value function or policy class. Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey is a comprehensive reference for students and researchers with an interest in Bayesian RL algorithms and their theoretical and empirical properties.

Approximation of Graphical Probabilistic Models by Iterative Dynamic Discretization and Its Application to Time-series Segmentation

Approximation of Graphical Probabilistic Models by Iterative Dynamic Discretization and Its Application to Time-series Segmentation
Author: Carnegie-Mellon University. Computer Science Dept
Publisher:
Total Pages: 174
Release: 1996
Genre: Artificial intelligence
ISBN:

Abstract: "Most artificial intelligence applications must cope with uncertainty. Recent developments with graphical probabilistic models such as Bayesian networks have introduced useful methods for reasoning explicitly about degrees of uncertainty. This thesis explores a method called iterative dynamic discretization for approximating probabilistic inference in graphical networks. Continuous variables (or variables with enormous sample spaces) are replaced by discrete variables with a small number of possible values, and then the simplified discrete model is solved using exact propagation methods. The results of this computation are then used to find an improved discretization for the problem instance, and the process is iterated. The algorithm can be viewed as applying Gibbs sampling to the space of possible discretizations, obtaining a method for combining stochastic simulation methods with exact propagation. Alternatively, it can be viewed as an instance of approximate iterative knowledge-based model construction. The thesis applies iterative dynamic discretization to a model-based time-series segmentation problem. A formalism for modeling qualitative signal shapes, durations, transitions, and uncertainty in multi-dimensional time series, called a Hidden Segmented Semi-Markov Model, is introduced and used to define a probabilistic model for the time-series segmentation task. This is converted to a graphical probabilistic model and solved by iterative dynamic discretization. Iterative dynamic discretization is found to require substantially fewer iterations to obtain a given level of performance compared to Gibbs sampling."

Soft Computing Principles and Integration for Real-Time Service-Oriented Computing

Soft Computing Principles and Integration for Real-Time Service-Oriented Computing
Author: Punit Gupta
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2024-03-22
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 100385902X

In recent years, soft computing techniques have emerged as a successful tool to understand and analyze the collective behavior of service- oriented computing software. Algorithms and mechanisms of self- organization of complex natural systems have been used to solve problems, particularly in complex systems, which are adaptive, ever- evolving, and distributed in nature across the globe. What fits more perfectly into this scenario other than the rapidly developing era of Fog, IoT, and Edge computing environment? Service- oriented computing can be enhanced with soft computing techniques embedded inside the Cloud, Fog, and IoT systems. Soft Computing Principles and Integration for Real-Time Service-Oriented Computing explores soft computing techniques that have wide application in interdisciplinary areas. These soft computing techniques provide an optimal solution to the optimization problem using single or multiple objectives.The book focuses on basic design principles and analysis of soft computing techniques. It discusses how soft computing techniques can be used to improve quality-of-service in serviceoriented architectures. The book also covers applications and integration of soft computing techniques with a service- oriented computing paradigm. Highlights of the book include: A general introduction to soft computing An extensive literature study of soft computing techniques and emerging trends Soft computing techniques based on the principles of artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, and neural networks The implementation of SOC with a focus on service composition and orchestration, quality of service (QoS) considerations, security and privacy concerns, governance challenges, and the integration of legacy systems The applications of soft computing in adaptive service composition, intelligent service recommendation, fault detection and diagnosis, SLA management, and security Such principles underlying SOC as loose coupling, reusability, interoperability, and abstraction An IoT based framework for real time data collection and analysis using soft computing

Knowledge Discovery Through Probabilistic Models

Knowledge Discovery Through Probabilistic Models
Author: Kosta Ristovski
Publisher:
Total Pages: 108
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

Probabilistic models are dominant in many research areas. To learn those models we need to find a way to determine parameters of distributions over variables which are included in the model. The main focus of my research is related to continuous variables. Thus, Gaussian distribution over variables is the most dominant factor in all models used in this document. I have been working on different and important real-life problems such as Uncertainty of Neural Network Based Aerosol Retrieval, Regression Learning with Multiple Noise Oracles and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for Sepsis Treatment, Clustering Causes of Action in Federal Courts. These problems will be discussed in the following chapters. Aerosols, small particles emanating from natural and man-made sources, along with green house gases have been recognized as very important factors in ongoing climate changes. Accurate estimation of aerosol composition and concentration is one of the main challenges in current climate research. Algorithm for prediction of aerosol designed by domain scientists does not provide quantitative information about aerosol estimation uncertainty. We deployed algorithm which uses neural networks to determine both uncertainty and the estimation of the aerosol. The uncertainty estimator has been built under an assumption that uncertainty is a function of variables used for aerosol prediction. Also, the uncertainty of predictions has been computed as the variance of the conditional distribution of targets given the input data. In regression learning, it is often difficult to obtain the true values of the label variables, while multiple sources of noisy estimates of lower quality are readily available. To address this problem, I propose a new Bayesian approach that learns a regression model from a data with noisy labels which are provided by multiple oracles. This method gives closed form solution for model parameters and it is applicable to both linear and nonlinear regression problems. Sepsis is a medical condition characterized as a systemic inflammatory response to an infection. High mortality rate (30-35%) of septic patients is usually caused by inadequate treatment. Thus, development of tools that can aid clinicians in designing optimal strategies for inflammation treatments is of utmost importance. Towards this objective I developed a data driven approach for therapy optimization where a predictive model for patients' behavior is learned directly from historical data. As such, the predictive model is incorporated into a model predictive control optimization algorithm to find optimal therapy, which will lead the patient to a healthy state. A more careful targeting of specific therapeutic strategies to more biologically homogeneous groups of patients is essential to developing effective sepsis treatment. We propose a kernel-based approach to characterize dynamics of inflammatory response in a heterogeneous population of septic patients. The method utilizes Linear State Space Control (LSSC) models to take into account dynamics of inflammatory response over time as well as the effect of therapy applied to the patient. We use a similarity measure defined on kernels of LSSC models to find homogeneous groups of patients. In addition to clustering of dynamics of inflammatory response we also explored a clustering of civil litigation from its inception by examining the content of civil complaints. We utilize spectral cluster analysis on a newly compiled federal district court dataset of causes of action in complaints to illustrate the relationship of legal claims to one another, the broader composition of lawsuits in trial courts, and the breadth of pleading in individual complaints. Our results shed light not only on the networks of legal theories in civil litigation but also on how lawsuits are classified and the strategies that plaintiffs and their attorneys employ when commencing litigation.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Author: David Heckerman
Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann
Total Pages: 554
Release: 2014-05-12
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1483214516

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence contains the proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence held at the Catholic University of America in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, 1993. The papers focus on methods of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty as applied to problems in artificial intelligence (AI) and cover topics ranging from knowledge acquisition and automated model construction to learning, planning, temporal reasoning, and machine vision. Comprised of 66 chapters, this book begins with a discussion on causality in Bayesian belief networks before turning to a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic and forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory. Subsequent chapters explore trade-offs in constructing and evaluating temporal influence diagrams; normative engineering risk management systems; additive belief-network models; and sensitivity analysis for probability assessments in Bayesian networks. Automated model construction and learning as well as algorithms for inference and decision making are also considered. This monograph will be of interest to both students and practitioners in the fields of AI and computer science.

Engineering the System of Healthcare Delivery

Engineering the System of Healthcare Delivery
Author: William B. Rouse
Publisher: IOS Press
Total Pages: 492
Release: 2010
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 1607505320

The US healthcare system has many excellent components; strong scientific input, extraordinary technology for diagnosis and treatment, dedicated staff and top-class facilities among them. But the system has evolved haphazardly over time and although it has not failed entirely, the authors argue that like any system where attention, is paid to individual components at the expense of the system as a whole, it can never hope to succeed. Above all, they point out that the US system does not provide high value healthcare; it has the highest costs in the world and yet many other countries have lower infant mortality rates and better life expectancy. --

Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning

Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning
Author: David Barber
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 739
Release: 2012-02-02
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0521518148

A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.