Real Sectoral Spillovers
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Author | : MissNan Li |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 52 |
Release | : 2018-05-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484355717 |
This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.
Author | : Ray Barrell |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 316 |
Release | : 2000-06-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780521780315 |
The book compares and explains differences in levels of incomes among industrialised countries.
Author | : Francis X. Diebold |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 285 |
Release | : 2015-02-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0199338329 |
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Author | : Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 30 |
Release | : 2021-10-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1589065298 |
Do workers hired from superstar tech-firms contribute to better firm performance? To address this question, we analyze the effects of tacit knowledge spillovers from Nokia in the context of a quasi-natural experiment in Finland, the closure of Nokia’s mobile device division in 2014 and the massive labor movement it implied. We apply a two-stage difference-in-differences approach with heterogeneous treatment to estimate the causal effects of hiring former Nokia employees. Our results provide new evidence supporting the positive causal role of former Nokia workers on firm performance. The evidence of the positive spillovers on firms is particularly strong in terms of employment and value added.
Author | : Mr. Sonali Das |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2021-07-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513587390 |
This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.
Author | : Nicholas Bloom |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : High technology industries |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Paul Stoneman |
Publisher | : Oxford [Oxfordshire] ; New York : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 296 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
This book presents a comprehensive view of the economic approach to the analysis of technical change.
Author | : Mr. Philip Barrett |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2021-07-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513587900 |
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
Author | : Mr.Stijn Claessens |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 66 |
Release | : 2013-01-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475561008 |
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author | : Werner Smolny |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 283 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3642576966 |
The recent development of endogenous growth theories has renewed the in terest into the sources of productivity growth of the advanced industrialized economies. The basic advance of these models is that the evolution of tech nological progress is explained endogeneously within the economic model. The most important concept is the idea of endogenous, market-driven inno vations which are seen as the basic source of technological advances. Firms develop sophisticated production techniques and new products in order to reduce costs or to stimulate demand. Equally important is the concept of knowledge spillovers from innovation activities and scale economies associ ated with them. External effects drive a wedge between private and social re turns of innovation activities, and scale economies affect the market structure. In addition, each year's productivity increases exhibit an enormous social value. Therefore, the analysis of endogenous innovations, scale economies, and knowledge spillovers has important implications for economic policy which enhances the interest into empirical investigations of these issues. This book is a collection of theoretical and empirical work on this subject. It combines micro economic and macroeconomic issues; a special emphasis is placed on empirical applications. Much work has been devoted to the search and the preparation of appropriate data, and all models are estimated with panel data. The first two chapters take an aggregate view at the growth process.