Real Earnings Management, Habitually Meeting/closely Beating Analysts' Forecasts and Firms' Long-term Economic Performance

Real Earnings Management, Habitually Meeting/closely Beating Analysts' Forecasts and Firms' Long-term Economic Performance
Author: Fanghong Jiao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2014
Genre: Business forecasting
ISBN:

Real earnings management (REM) has gained more attention due to its more extensive application than that before the enactment of Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX). Analysts' earnings forecast is an important benchmark for both the investors and the managers. Gunny (2010) finds that the signaling of future prospects overcomes the possibility of opportunism in firms that occasionally use REM to meet/closely beat benchmarks. However, the effect of repeatedly using REM to meet/beat earnings benchmarks has not been explored. This paper examines the long-term economic performance (Tobin's Q) of firms that utilize REM to habitually meet/closely beat analysts' earnings forecasts (HabitMBE). The results suggest that in equilibrium, while HabitMBE firms in general enjoy a market premium, HabitMBE firms that use REM repeatedly are penalized by investors, and the market premium disappears. Not surprisingly, I find that HabitMBE firms that have already used REM repeatedly try to curtail its use - a finding that is not found for occasional REM meeting/close beating firms. Another interesting finding of this study is that analysts' downward forecast revision in the long-run has a significantly negative effect on firms' economic performance, which prior studies have not clearly documented.

Earnings Management

Earnings Management
Author: Joshua Ronen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 587
Release: 2008-08-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0387257713

This book is a study of earnings management, aimed at scholars and professionals in accounting, finance, economics, and law. The authors address research questions including: Why are earnings so important that firms feel compelled to manipulate them? What set of circumstances will induce earnings management? How will the interaction among management, boards of directors, investors, employees, suppliers, customers and regulators affect earnings management? How to design empirical research addressing earnings management? What are the limitations and strengths of current empirical models?

Introduction to Earnings Management

Introduction to Earnings Management
Author: Malek El Diri
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2017-08-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319626868

This book provides researchers and scholars with a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of earnings management theory and literature. While it raises new questions for future research, the book can be also helpful to other parties who rely on financial reporting in making decisions like regulators, policy makers, shareholders, investors, and gatekeepers e.g., auditors and analysts. The book summarizes the existing literature and provides insight into new areas of research such as the differences between earnings management, fraud, earnings quality, impression management, and expectation management; the trade-off between earnings management activities; the special measures of earnings management; and the classification of earnings management motives based on a comprehensive theoretical framework.

Real Earnings Management by Benchmark-Beating Firms

Real Earnings Management by Benchmark-Beating Firms
Author: Brooke Beyer
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

Prior studies document both an improvement and deterioration in the future operating performance of firms engaging in real earnings management (REM) to meet earnings benchmarks. These results suggest that some firms use REM to signal their favorable prospects, whereas others use REM opportunistically. We hypothesize that firms with less robust information environments, more costly REM, and fewer incentives to meet short-term earnings benchmarks are more likely to engage in REM to signal future performance. Consistent with expectations, we find the positive relation between REM and future profitability is limited to firms that have less robust information environments (measured with stock return volatility, bid/ask spread, and analysts following), more costly REM (measured with market share and financial health), and fewer incentives to meet short-term earnings benchmarks (measured with market-to-book ratio, transient investors, and seasoned equity offering). In supplementary analysis, we note that Bhojraj et al. (2009) restrict their sample to relatively large firms, whereas Gunny's (2010) sample includes both large and small firms. Our analysis indicates that the difference in sample composition explains the differing results. We find that small firms use REM to signal positive future performance, but large firms do not.

Management Earnings Forecast Issuance and Earnings Surprises

Management Earnings Forecast Issuance and Earnings Surprises
Author: T. Sabri Oncu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper studies the impact of firms' public management guidance on their ability to meet or beat analysts' consensus forecasts. The model set forth here accounts for endogeneity of firms' management earnings forecast issuance to examine whether their public management guidance raises their probability of generating favorable earnings surprises. In addition, the model allows for state dependence to investigate whether the firms' past outcomes have any impact on the probabilities of their meeting or beating analysts' consensus forecasts and management forecast issuance. Based on a panel dataset of 1,807 firms and 28,031 firm-quarters between 1994 and 2002, I find the following: Firstly, firms that meet or beat their own management forecast are more likely to meet or beat the analysts' consensus forecast. Secondly, firms with a long history of meeting or beating the analysts' consensus forecasts are more likely to repeat their previous performance. Thirdly, firms with a long history of meeting or beating their own forecasts are more likely to issue management forecasts that they can meet or beat. And lastly, firms with a long history of meeting or beating analysts' consensus forecasts are more likely to issue management forecasts that they can meet or beat. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that not only firms' public management guidance but also their past outcomes play an important role in their ability to generate favorable earnings surprises.

Outperform with Expectations-Based Management

Outperform with Expectations-Based Management
Author: Tom Copeland
Publisher: Wiley
Total Pages: 448
Release: 2005-10-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0471753645

CEOs and managers live and die by delivering superior performance to shareholders. This is why expectations-based management has been developed. Outperform with Expectations-Based Management (EBM) introduces a revolutionary new performance metric that links performance standards, performance measurement, and the achievement of performance. It's easy to say that if a CEO can get performance measurement right, then performance improvement will follow. But what is the "right" measure of performance, and how do you use it to improve performance? Authors Tom Copeland and Aaron Dolgoff answer these questions and many more, as they show you how to find the measure of performance that has the strongest link to the creation of wealth for the owners of both public and private companies. They answer the puzzle of why growth in earnings is not correlated with shareholder returns and explain the under- and over-investment traps. And they explain how clear communications to investors and managers alike improve value. The bottom line is that share prices go up when companies exceed expectations -- short-term and long-term -- of income statement and balance sheet performance and daily operating value drivers. Gain a complete understanding of EBM and discover how to do this, and much more, while staying competitive in an unforgiving business environment.

Short-Term Earnings Guidance and Earnings Management

Short-Term Earnings Guidance and Earnings Management
Author: Andrew C. Call
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

We study the relation between short-term earnings guidance and earnings management. We find that firms issuing short-term earnings forecasts exhibit significantly lower absolute abnormal accruals, our proxy for earnings management, than do firms that do not issue earnings forecasts. Regular guiders also exhibit less earnings management than do less regular guiders. These findings are contrary to conventional wisdom but consistent with the implications of Dutta and Gigler (2002) and the expectations alignment role of earnings guidance (Ajinkya and Gift 1984). Our results continue to hold after we control for self-selection and potential reverse causality concerns, and in a setting where managers are documented to have strong incentives to manage earnings. Additional analysis reveals that guiding firms exhibit less income-increasing accrual management whether firms guide expectations upwards or downwards, and no evidence that guiding firms inflate earnings through real activities management. We also provide evidence to demonstrate that meeting-or-beating benchmarks is not an appropriate proxy for earnings management in our research setting.

Managerial Behavior and the Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

Managerial Behavior and the Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
Author: Lawrence D. Brown
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Managerial behavior differs considerably when managers report quarterly profits versus losses. When they report profits, managers seek to just meet or slightly beat analyst estimates. When they report losses, managers do not attempt to meet or slightly beat analyst estimates. Instead, managers often do not forewarn analysts of impending losses, and the analyst's signed error is likely to be negative and extreme (i.e., a measured optimistic bias). Brown (1997 Financial Analysts Journal) shows that the optimistic bias in analyst earnings forecasts has been mitigated over time, and that it is less pronounced for larger firms and firms followed by many analysts. In the present study, I offer three explanations for these temporal and cross-sectional phenomena. First, the frequency of profits versus losses may differ temporally and/or cross-sectionally. Since an optimistic bias in analyst forecasts is less likely to occur when firms report profits, an optimistic bias is less likely to be observed in samples possessing a relatively greater frequency of profits. Second, the tendency to report profits that just meet or slightly beat analyst estimates may differ temporally and/or cross-sectionally. A greater tendency to 'manage profits' (and analyst estimates) in this manner reduces the measured optimistic bias in analyst forecasts. Third, the tendency to forewarn analysts of impending losses may differ temporally and/or cross-sectionally. A greater tendency to 'manage losses' in this manner also reduces the measured optimistic bias in analyst forecasts. I provide the following temporal evidence. The optimistic bias in analyst forecasts pertains to both the entire sample and the losses sub-sample. In contrast, a pessimistic bias exists for the 85.3% of the sample that consists of reported profits. The temporal decrease in the optimistic bias documented by Brown (1997) pertains to both losses and profits. Analysts have gotten better at predicting the sign of a loss (i.e., they are much more likely to predict that a loss will occur than they used to), and they have reduced the number of extreme negative errors they make by two-thirds. Managers are much more likely to report profits that exactly meet or slightly beat analyst estimates than they used to. In contrast, they are less likely to report profits that fall a little short of analyst estimates than they used to. I conclude that the temporal reduction in optimistic bias is attributable to an increased tendency to manage both profits and losses. I find no evidence that there exists a temporal change in the profits-losses mix (using the I/B/E/S definition of reported quarterly profits and losses). I document the following cross-sectional evidence. The principle reason that larger firms have relatively less optimistic bias is that they are far less likely to report losses. A secondary reason that larger firms have relatively less optimistic bias is that their managers are relatively more likely to report profits that slightly beat analyst estimates. The principle reason that firms followed by more analysts have relatively less optimistic bias is that they are far less likely to report losses. A secondary reason that firms followed by more analysts have relatively less optimistic bias is that their managers are relatively more likely to report profits that exactly meet analyst estimates or beat them by one penny. I find no evidence that managers of larger firms or firms followed by more analysts are relatively more likely to forewarn analysts of impending losses. I conclude that cross-sectional differences in bias arise primarily from differential 'loss frequencies,' and secondarily from differential 'profits management.' The paper discusses implications of the results for studies of analysts forecast bias, earnings management, and capital markets. It concludes with caveats and directions for future research.

Do Firms Specifically Manage Gross Margin Ratio?

Do Firms Specifically Manage Gross Margin Ratio?
Author: Zhenyu Zhang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre: Accounting
ISBN:

Earnings management can target specific components of earnings. Evidence suggests that the gross margin ratio (GMR) is more value relevant than other earnings components, especially for firms that miss earnings forecasts (losers), and that firms have some discretion managing cost of goods sold. To the extent that losers intend to cast their financial information in a favorable light without incurring the costs associated with managing earnings from missing to meeting/beating forecasts, the incremental value relevance and discretion create a natural incentive to manage GMR. Using a sample of firms whose earnings and GMR are both forecasted by analysts, I provide evidence suggesting that losers inflate GMR. I also show that the probability of firms missing earnings forecasts and resorting to managing GMR increases in the detection risk and litigation costs associated with managing earnings from missing to meeting/beating forecasts as well as the benefits expected from managing GMR. Finally, I show that losers with better future performance use more production management and discretionary accruals to manage GMR, whereas such an association is not found in firms meeting/beating earnings forecasts (winners).