Projected Changes In The Energy Release Component Under Climate Change In Northwest Predictive Services Areas
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| Author | : Meghan M. Dalton |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 87 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : Climatic changes |
| ISBN | : |
Fire management agencies in the United States (US) use fire danger indices from National Fire Danger Rating Systems as decision-support tools. A widely used index tracking seasonal dryness in the western US is the Energy Release Component (ERC). Historically, ERC percentile thresholds provide information on the potential for large and uncontrollable fires, but climate change may alter the utility of specific percentiles in identifying large fire potential in the future. We investigated two management-focused questions: 1) how has seasonal ERC and percentile values changed, and 2) how will ERC and the number of high fire danger days change under projected future climatic conditions. We calculated historical and future ERC for Predictive Service Areas in Oregon and Washington using station observations and downscaled climate models, respectively. ERC and frequency of high fire danger days during the fire season increased for most PSAs over the 1981-2010 period. These increases were consistent with projected increases in ERC and high fire danger days using climate projections, with the most acute increases projected east of the Cascades and during the peak of the fire season. Irrespective of changes in vegetation and fire management, these changes in fire danger have and will continue to increase wildfire exposure across the region.
| Author | : Meghan M. Dalton |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : Climatic changes |
| ISBN | : |
Fire management agencies in the United States (US) use fire danger indices from National Fire Danger Rating Systems as decision-support tools. A widely used index tracking seasonal dryness in the western US is the Energy Release Component (ERC). Historically, ERC percentile thresholds provide information on the potential for large and uncontrollable fires, but climate change may alter the utility of specific percentiles in identifying large fire potential in the future. We investigated two management-focused questions: 1) how has seasonal ERC and percentile values changed, and 2) how will ERC and the number of high fire danger days change under projected future climatic conditions. We calculated historical and future ERC for Predictive Service Areas in Oregon and Washington using station observations and downscaled climate models, respectively. ERC and frequency of high fire danger days during the fire season increased for most PSAs over the 1981-2010 period. These increases were consistent with projected increases in ERC and high fire danger days using climate projections, with the most acute increases projected east of the Cascades and during the peak of the fire season. Irrespective of changes in vegetation and fire management, these changes in fire danger have and will continue to increase wildfire exposure across the region.
| Author | : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 207 |
| Release | : 2018-06-18 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309471699 |
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
| Author | : Jane O. Ebinger |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 224 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0821386980 |
"While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."
| Author | : U.S. Global Change Research Program |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 193 |
| Release | : 2009-08-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0521144078 |
Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.
| Author | : Amy Myers Jaffe |
| Publisher | : Council on Foreign Relations Press |
| Total Pages | : 88 |
| Release | : 2019-09-13 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9780876097731 |
Climate change affects virtually every aspect of the U.S. energy system. As climatic effects such as rising seas and extreme weather continue to appear across many geographies, U.S. energy infrastructure is increasingly at risk. The U.S. Gulf Coast--which is home to 44 percent of total U.S. oil refining capacity and several major ports--is highly vulnerable to flooding events and dangerous ocean surges during severe storms and hurricanes. The link between water availability and energy and electricity production creates another layer of risk to U.S. energy security. Climate risk could manifest not only in physical damages, but also in financial market failures. Climate change-related challenges could impede energy firms' access to capital markets or private insurance markets. Already, climate-related risks have created severe financial problems at a handful of U.S. energy firms, forcing them to interrupt their sales of energy to consumers in particular locations. Over time, climatic disruptions to domestic energy supply could entail huge economic losses and potentially require sizable domestic military mobilizations. The United States is ill prepared for this national security challenge, and public debate about emergency preparedness is virtually nonexistent. To explore the challenges of climate risk to the U.S. energy system and national security, the Council on Foreign Relations organized a two-day workshop in New York, on March 18 and 19, 2019. The gathering of fifty participants included current and former state and federal government officials and regulators, entrepreneurs, scientists, investors, financial- and corporate-sector leaders, credit agencies, insurers, nongovernmental organizations, and energy policy experts. During their deliberations, workshop participants explored how climate-related risks to U.S. energy infrastructure, financial markets, and national security could be measured, managed, and mitigated. Impact of Climate Risk on the Energy System summarizes the insights from this workshop and includes contributions from seven expert authors delving into related topics.
| Author | : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 755 |
| Release | : 2022-04-30 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9781009157971 |
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
| Author | : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 532 |
| Release | : 1998 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9780521634557 |
Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
| Author | : Stéphane Vannitsem |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 364 |
| Release | : 2018-05-17 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 012812248X |
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 526 |
| Release | : 2011-01-10 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309145880 |
Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.
