Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts?

Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts?
Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2005-09-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498330835

This note examines whether projections made in the context of a Fund-supported program are systematically more optimistic than those done for surveillance cases. Of particular interest in this regard is the assessment of external debt sustainability, as this underlies the "capacity to repay the Fund" analysis. Accordingly, this note examines debt projections over the period 1990-2004, with data for transition countries beginning in 1995.

Projections of Educational Statistics to

Projections of Educational Statistics to
Author: United States. Office of Education
Publisher:
Total Pages: 192
Release: 1971
Genre: Education
ISBN:

Provides 10-year projections of statistics for elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education; includes enrollments, graduates, teachers, and expenditures.

Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques

Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques
Author: Michael R. Greenberg
Publisher: Rutgers Univ Center for Urban
Total Pages: 277
Release: 1978-01-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9780882850498

Forecasting populations, beyond fifteen years requires an encyclopedic knowledge of the national, regional, and local socioeconomic, political, and physical environments, combined with a large measure of imagination. Projections of this type are increasingly required by private and public decision-makers. The authors, who are top researchers in this area, have provided a comprehensive analysis that goes beyond the standard fifteen-year forecast. Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques presents a set of programmed models that project the populations of minor civil divisions (MCDs) up to fifty years and employment of counties up to twenty-five years. Three classes of MCD population models are presented, each of which is constrained at the county scale by county projections that are, constrained by state and national projections. The simplest model extrapolates a trend in the historical growth rates of MCDs, while a second method is based on the distributional properties of projections made by regional or county agencies. A procedure is provided for allocating the projections to an alternative set of spatial units. The second part of this book provides employment projection methods. Four models are presented: one is a simple regression model, and there are three step-down models: one of which is a constant share model; a second model weights the constant share projections by population projections; and a third includes a competitive component. In addition, each portion of the book contains three major pieces: an overview of available projection models; state, county, and, in the case of population projections, minor civil division models; computer programs, user's instructions, and the input and output of a sample problem.