Probability and Stochastic Modeling

Probability and Stochastic Modeling
Author: Vladimir I. Rotar
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 504
Release: 2012-08-25
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1439872074

A First Course in Probability with an Emphasis on Stochastic Modeling Probability and Stochastic Modeling not only covers all the topics found in a traditional introductory probability course, but also emphasizes stochastic modeling, including Markov chains, birth-death processes, and reliability models. Unlike most undergraduate-level probability texts, the book also focuses on increasingly important areas, such as martingales, classification of dependency structures, and risk evaluation. Numerous examples, exercises, and models using real-world data demonstrate the practical possibilities and restrictions of different approaches and help students grasp general concepts and theoretical results. The text is suitable for majors in mathematics and statistics as well as majors in computer science, economics, finance, and physics. The author offers two explicit options to teaching the material, which is reflected in "routes" designated by special "roadside" markers. The first route contains basic, self-contained material for a one-semester course. The second provides a more complete exposition for a two-semester course or self-study.

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling
Author: Howard M. Taylor
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 410
Release: 2014-05-10
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1483269272

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.

Concepts in Probability and Stochastic Modeling

Concepts in Probability and Stochastic Modeling
Author: James J. Higgins
Publisher: Duxbury Resource Center
Total Pages: 440
Release: 1995
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This text stresses modern ideas, including simulation and interpretation of results. It focuses on the aspects of probability most relevant to applications, such as stochastic modeling, Markov chains, reliability, and queuing.

Stochastic Modeling

Stochastic Modeling
Author: Nicolas Lanchier
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 305
Release: 2017-01-27
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3319500384

Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the gambler’s ruin chain, branching processes, symmetric random walks, and queueing systems. The third, more research-oriented part of the text, discusses special stochastic processes of interest in physics, biology, and sociology. Additional emphasis is placed on minimal models that have been used historically to develop new mathematical techniques in the field of stochastic processes: the logistic growth process, the Wright –Fisher model, Kingman’s coalescent, percolation models, the contact process, and the voter model. Further treatment of the material explains how these special processes are connected to each other from a modeling perspective as well as their simulation capabilities in C and MatlabTM.

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling
Author: Howard M. Taylor
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 579
Release: 2014-05-10
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1483220443

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling, Revised Edition provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.

Introduction to Stochastic Models

Introduction to Stochastic Models
Author: Roe Goodman
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2006-01-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0486450376

Newly revised by the author, this undergraduate-level text introduces the mathematical theory of probability and stochastic processes. Using both computer simulations and mathematical models of random events, it comprises numerous applications to the physical and biological sciences, engineering, and computer science. Subjects include sample spaces, probabilities distributions and expectations of random variables, conditional expectations, Markov chains, and the Poisson process. Additional topics encompass continuous-time stochastic processes, birth and death processes, steady-state probabilities, general queuing systems, and renewal processes. Each section features worked examples, and exercises appear at the end of each chapter, with numerical solutions at the back of the book. Suggestions for further reading in stochastic processes, simulation, and various applications also appear at the end.

Stochastic Modeling

Stochastic Modeling
Author: Barry L. Nelson
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Total Pages: 338
Release: 2012-10-11
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0486139948

Coherent introduction to techniques also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Includes formulation of models, analysis, and interpretation of results. 1995 edition.

Foundations of Stochastic Analysis

Foundations of Stochastic Analysis
Author: M. M. Rao
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2011-01-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0486481220

Stochastic analysis involves the study of a process involving a randomly determined sequence of observations, each of which represents a sample of one element of probability distribution. This volume considers fundamental theories and contrasts the natural interplay between real and abstract methods. Starting with the introduction of the basic Kolmogorov-Bochner existence theorem, the text explores conditional expectations and probabilities as well as projective and direct limits. Subsequent chapters examine several aspects of discrete martingale theory, including applications to ergodic theory, likelihood ratios, and the Gaussian dichotomy theorem. Prerequisites include a standard measure theory course. No prior knowledge of probability is assumed; therefore, most of the results are proved in detail. Each chapter concludes with a problem section that features many hints and facts, including the most important results in information theory.

Stochastic Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods

Stochastic Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods
Author: Carl Graham
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 264
Release: 2013-07-16
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3642393632

In various scientific and industrial fields, stochastic simulations are taking on a new importance. This is due to the increasing power of computers and practitioners’ aim to simulate more and more complex systems, and thus use random parameters as well as random noises to model the parametric uncertainties and the lack of knowledge on the physics of these systems. The error analysis of these computations is a highly complex mathematical undertaking. Approaching these issues, the authors present stochastic numerical methods and prove accurate convergence rate estimates in terms of their numerical parameters (number of simulations, time discretization steps). As a result, the book is a self-contained and rigorous study of the numerical methods within a theoretical framework. After briefly reviewing the basics, the authors first introduce fundamental notions in stochastic calculus and continuous-time martingale theory, then develop the analysis of pure-jump Markov processes, Poisson processes, and stochastic differential equations. In particular, they review the essential properties of Itô integrals and prove fundamental results on the probabilistic analysis of parabolic partial differential equations. These results in turn provide the basis for developing stochastic numerical methods, both from an algorithmic and theoretical point of view. The book combines advanced mathematical tools, theoretical analysis of stochastic numerical methods, and practical issues at a high level, so as to provide optimal results on the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations of stochastic processes. It is intended for master and Ph.D. students in the field of stochastic processes and their numerical applications, as well as for physicists, biologists, economists and other professionals working with stochastic simulations, who will benefit from the ability to reliably estimate and control the accuracy of their simulations.

Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets

Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets
Author: Fred Espen Benth
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981281230X

The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein?Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.