Regionalization of Hydrological Model to Predict Ungauged Basins

Regionalization of Hydrological Model to Predict Ungauged Basins
Author: Syed Abu Shoaib
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 128
Release: 2012-08
Genre:
ISBN: 9783659216053

Author analyzed the existing methods in regionalization studies to Predict Ungauged Basins and considering all the aspects a new methodology is developed, which is named as RDS Method. ROPE(R) - Data depth (D)-Spatial Proximity (S) together gets this name RDS. Robust Parameter Estimation (ROPE) algorithm ensure all parameter vectors robust with the following criteria: (i) lead to good model performance over the selected time period (ii) lead to a hydrologically reasonable representation of the corresponding process (iii) insensitive (iv) transferable (can be regionalized). Data depth function is used to find the boundary or the outlier of the catchments to identify donor catchments. It's also used in ROPE algorithm. Application of the Spatial proximity-one of the earliest approach consists of transferring parameters from neighboring catchments to the ungauged catchment, the inspiration being that catchments that are close to each other should have similar behavior since climate and catchment conditions should vary evenly in space. Blending this three key (ROPE- Data depth- Spatial Proximity) concept together brought a new light in predicting Ungauged Basins.

Statistical Learning for Unimpaired Flow Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Statistical Learning for Unimpaired Flow Prediction in Ungauged Basins
Author: Elaheh White
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

All science is the search for unity in hidden likeness (Bronowski, 1988). There are two practical reasons to approximate processes that produce such hidden likeness: (1) prediction for interpolation or extrapolation to unknown (often future) situations; and (2) inferenceto understand how variables are connected or how change in one affects others. Statistical learning tools aid prediction and at times inference. In recent years, rapidly growing computing power, the advent of machine learning algorithms, and more user-friendly programming languages (e.g., R and Python) support applying statistical learning methods to broader societal problems. This dissertation develops statistical learning models, generally simpler than mechanistic models, to predict unimpaired flows of California basins from available data. Unimpaired flow is the flow produced by the basin in its current state, but without human-created or operated water storage, diversion, or return flows (California Department of Water Resources, Bay-Delta Office, 2016). The models predict unimpaired flows for ungauged basins, an International Association of Hydrological Sciences "grand challenge" in hydrology. In Predicting Ungauged Basins (PUB), the models learn from information at gauged points on a river and extrapolate to ungauged locations. Several issues arise in this prediction problem: (1) How we view hydrology and how we define observational units determine how data is pre-processed for statistical learning methods. So, one issue is in deciding the organization of the data (e.g., aggregate vs. incrementalbasins). Such data transformation or pre-processing is explored in Chapter 2. (2) Often, water resources problems are not concerned with accurately predicting the expectation (or mean) of a distribution but require better estimates of extreme values of the distribution(e.g., floods and droughts). Solving this problem involves defining asymmetric loss functions, which is presented in Chapter 3. (3) Hydrologic observations have inherent dependencies and correlation structure; gauge data are structured in time and space, and rivers form a network of flows that feed into one another (i.e., temporal, spatial, and hierarchical autocorrelation). These characteristics require careful construction of resampling techniques for model error estimation, which is discussed in Chapter 4. (4) Non-stationarity due to climate change may require adjustments to statistical models, especially for long-term decision-making. Chapter 5 compares unimpaired flow predictions from a statistical model that uses climate variables representing future hydrology to projections from climate models. These issues make Predicting Ungauged Basins (PUB) a non-trivial problem for statistical learning methods operating with no a priori knowledge of the system. Compared to physical or semi-physical models, statistical learning models learn from the data itself, withno assumptions on underlying processes. Their advantages lie in their fast and easy development, simplicity of use, lesser data requirements, good performance, and flexibility in model structure and parameter specifications. In the past two decades, more sophisticated statistical learning models have been applied to rainfall-runoff modeling. However, with these methods, there are issues such as the danger of overfitting, their lack of justification outside the range of underlying data sets, complexity in model structure, and limitations from the nature of the algorithms deployed. Keywords: predicting ungauged basins (PUB); rainfall-runoff modeling; asymmetric loss functions; structured data; blocked resampling methods; climate change; water resources; hydrology; statistical learning.

Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins
Author: Günter Blöschl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 491
Release: 2013-04-18
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1107067553

Predicting water runoff in ungauged water catchment areas is vital to practical applications such as the design of drainage infrastructure and flooding defences, runoff forecasting, and for catchment management tasks such as water allocation and climate impact analysis. This full colour book offers an impressive synthesis of decades of international research, forming a holistic approach to catchment hydrology and providing a one-stop resource for hydrologists in both developed and developing countries. Topics include data for runoff regionalisation, the prediction of runoff hydrographs, flow duration curves, flow paths and residence times, annual and seasonal runoff, and floods. Illustrated with many case studies and including a final chapter on recommendations for researchers and practitioners, this book is written by expert authors involved in the prestigious IAHS PUB initiative. It is a key resource for academic researchers and professionals in the fields of hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, geography, soil science, and environmental and civil engineering.

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods
Author: Fi-John Chang
Publisher: MDPI
Total Pages: 376
Release: 2019-02-28
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3038975486

Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.

Rainfall-Runoff Modelling

Rainfall-Runoff Modelling
Author: Keith J. Beven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 489
Release: 2012-01-30
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 047071459X

Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, Second Edition is the follow-up of this popular and authoritative text, first published in 2001. The book provides both a primer for the novice and detailed descriptions of techniques for more advanced practitioners, covering rainfall-runoff models and their practical applications. This new edition extends these aims to include additional chapters dealing with prediction in ungauged basins, predicting residence time distributions, predicting the impacts of change and the next generation of hydrological models. Giving a comprehensive summary of available techniques based on established practices and recent research the book offers a thorough and accessible overview of the area. Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer Second Edition focuses on predicting hydrographs using models based on data and on representations of hydrological process. Dealing with the history of the development of rainfall-runoff models, uncertainty in mode predictions, good and bad practice and ending with a look at how to predict future catchment hydrological responses this book provides an essential underpinning of rainfall-runoff modelling topics. Fully revised and updated version of this highly popular text Suitable for both novices in the area and for more advanced users and developers Written by a leading expert in the field Guide to internet sources for rainfall-runoff modelling software

Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Flood Risk Assessment and Management
Author: Andreas H. Schumann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 281
Release: 2011-01-04
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9048199174

Flood catastrophes which happened world-wide have shown that it is not sufficient to characterize the hazard caused by the natural phenomenon "flood" with the well-known 3M-approach (measuring, mapping and modelling). Due to the recent shift in paradigms from a safety oriented approach to risk based planning it became necessary to consider the harmful impacts of hazards. The planning tasks changed from attempts to minimise hazards towards interventions to reduce exposure or susceptibility and nowadays to enhance the capacities to increase resilience. Scientific interest shifts more and more towards interdisciplinary approaches, which are needed to avoid disaster. This book deals with many aspects of flood risk management in a comprehensive way. As risks depend on hazard and vulnerabilities, not only geophysical tools for flood forecasting and planning are presented, but also socio-economic problems of flood management are discussed. Starting with precipitation and meteorological tools to its forecasting, hydrological models are described in their applications for operational flood forecasts, considering model uncertainties and their interactions with hydraulic and groundwater models. With regard to flood risk planning, regionalization aspects and the options to utilize historic floods are discussed. New hydrological tools for flood risk assessments for dams and reservoirs are presented. Problems and options to quantify socio-economic risks and how to consider them in multi-criteria assessments of flood risk planning are discussed. This book contributes to the contemporary efforts to reduce flood risk at the European scale. Using many real-world examples, it is useful for scientists and practitioners at different levels and with different interests.