Predicting Household Poverty
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Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19
Author | : Headey, Derek D. |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 17 |
Release | : 2021-02-13 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Amid extreme uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policymakers have struggled to respond to rapidly changing circumstances with appropriate speed and scale. One policy obstacle is the dearth of real-time indicators of the pandemic’s economic impacts, especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Here we show that an ‘immobility’ indicator from GoogleTM – measuring the extent to which consumers are staying at home more – is a powerful predictor of changes in household poverty in Myanmar, as well as aggregate national consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in cross-country data. Combined, this evidence suggests that real-time mobility indicators have the potential to inform a wide range of policy deliberations, including forecasting models, fine-tuning the timing of both economic stimulus and social protection interventions, and tracking economic recovery from this unprecedented crisis.
Poverty Lines in Theory and Practice
Author | : Martin Ravallion |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 58 |
Release | : 1998-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780821342268 |
A poverty line helps focus the attention of governments and civil society on the living conditions of the poor. This paper offers a critical overview of alternative approaches to setting poverty lines. In reviewing the methods found in practice, the paper tries to throw light on, and go some way toward resolving, ongoing debates about poverty measurement, emphasizing those debates which would appear to have greatest bearing on policy discussions.
Proxy Means Tests for Targeting Social Programs
Author | : Margaret E. Grosh |
Publisher | : Washington, D.C. : World Bank |
Total Pages | : 49 |
Release | : 1995-01-01 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9780821333136 |
A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty
Author | : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |
Publisher | : National Academies Press |
Total Pages | : 619 |
Release | : 2019-09-16 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 0309483980 |
The strengths and abilities children develop from infancy through adolescence are crucial for their physical, emotional, and cognitive growth, which in turn help them to achieve success in school and to become responsible, economically self-sufficient, and healthy adults. Capable, responsible, and healthy adults are clearly the foundation of a well-functioning and prosperous society, yet America's future is not as secure as it could be because millions of American children live in families with incomes below the poverty line. A wealth of evidence suggests that a lack of adequate economic resources for families with children compromises these children's ability to grow and achieve adult success, hurting them and the broader society. A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty reviews the research on linkages between child poverty and child well-being, and analyzes the poverty-reducing effects of major assistance programs directed at children and families. This report also provides policy and program recommendations for reducing the number of children living in poverty in the United States by half within 10 years.
Targeting of Transfers in Developing Countries
Author | : David Coady |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 128 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780821357699 |
Drawing on a database of more than one hundred anti-poverty interventions in 47 countries, 'Targeting of Transfers in Developing Countries' provides a general review of experiences with methods used to target interventions in transition and developing countries. Written for policymakers and program managers in developing countries, in donor agencies, and in NGOs who have responsibility for designing interventions that reach the poor, it conveys what targeting options are available, what results can be expected as well as information that will assist in choosing among them and in their implementation. Key messages are: - While targeting 'works' - the median program transfers 25 percent more to the poor than would a universal allocation - targeting performance around the world is highly variable. - Means testing, geographic targeting, and self-selection based on a work requirement are the most robustly progressive methods. Proxy means testing, community-based selection of individuals and demographic targeting to children show good results on average, but with considerable variation. - Demographic targeting to the elderly, community bidding, and self-selection based on consumption show limited potential for good targeting. - There is no single preferred method for all types of programs or all country contexts. Successful targeting depends critically on how a method is implemented. The CD-ROM includes the database of interventions, an annotated bibliography (PDF) and Spanish and Russian translations of the book (PDFs).
Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 288 |
Release | : 2020-12-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464816034 |
This edition of the biennial Poverty and Shared Prosperity report brings sobering news. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its associated economic crisis, compounded by the effects of armed conflict and climate change, are reversing hard-won gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The fight to end poverty has suffered its worst setback in decades after more than 20 years of progress. The goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030, already at risk before the pandemic, is now beyond reach in the absence of swift, significant, and sustained action, and the objective of advancing shared prosperity—raising the incomes of the poorest 40 percent in each country—will be much more difficult. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune presents new estimates of COVID-19's impacts on global poverty and shared prosperity. Harnessing fresh data from frontline surveys and economic simulations, it shows that pandemic-related job losses and deprivation worldwide are hitting already poor and vulnerable people hard, while also shifting the profile of global poverty to include millions of 'new poor.' Original analysis included in the report shows that the new poor are more urban, better educated, and less likely to work in agriculture than those living in extreme poverty before COVID-19. It also gives new estimates of the impact of conflict and climate change, and how they overlap. These results are important for targeting policies to safeguard lives and livelihoods. It shows how some countries are acting to reverse the crisis, protect those most vulnerable, and promote a resilient recovery. These findings call for urgent action. If the global response fails the world's poorest and most vulnerable people now, the losses they have experienced to date will be minimal compared with what lies ahead. Success over the long term will require much more than stopping COVID-19. As efforts to curb the disease and its economic fallout intensify, the interrupted development agenda in low- and middle-income countries must be put back on track. Recovering from today's reversals of fortune requires tackling the economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 with a commitment proportional to the crisis itself. In doing so, countries can also plant the seeds for dealing with the long-term development challenges of promoting inclusive growth, capital accumulation, and risk prevention—particularly the risks of conflict and climate change.
Geographical Targeting for Poverty Alleviation
Author | : David Bigman |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 328 |
Release | : 2000-01-01 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9780821346259 |
.."in many developing countries, there are large differences in economic conditions and the standard of living between regions, and even between communities within the same region. In many countries, poverty has a clear geographic dimension, since the poor are often concentrated in pockets of poverty. Therefore, the design of poverty alleviation policies must also have a signficant spatial component." Although development projects are carefully designed and meticulously evaluated for cost effectiveness and benefits, too many of them are not sufficiently targeted geographically. The growing availability and use of spatial data, organized in a computer system such as a geographical information system (GIS), makes it more feasible to analyze the impact of projects in specific locales and to achieve more effective targeting. 'Geographical Targeting for Poverty Alleviation' introduces the basic concepts of a GIS. It also demonstrates how to organize geographic and nongeographic data. In addition, it presents different methods for using the data of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, together with other surveys and the population census, to provide estimates for the standard of living and the incidence of poverty incidence in different geographical areas of a country. Ultimately, these estimates should be used to establish guidelines for targeting poverty alleviation projects. This publication illustrates different GIS applications for identifying the project's target population, determining the project's spatial 'sphere of influence' or deciding where to locate public facilities. This publication is of interest to task managers, economists, development researchers, and geographers.
Globalization and Poverty
Author | : Ann Harrison |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 674 |
Release | : 2007-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226318001 |
Over the past two decades, the percentage of the world’s population living on less than a dollar a day has been cut in half. How much of that improvement is because of—or in spite of—globalization? While anti-globalization activists mount loud critiques and the media report breathlessly on globalization’s perils and promises, economists have largely remained silent, in part because of an entrenched institutional divide between those who study poverty and those who study trade and finance. Globalization and Poverty bridges that gap, bringing together experts on both international trade and poverty to provide a detailed view of the effects of globalization on the poor in developing nations, answering such questions as: Do lower import tariffs improve the lives of the poor? Has increased financial integration led to more or less poverty? How have the poor fared during various currency crises? Does food aid hurt or help the poor? Poverty, the contributors show here, has been used as a popular and convenient catchphrase by parties on both sides of the globalization debate to further their respective arguments. Globalization and Poverty provides the more nuanced understanding necessary to move that debate beyond the slogans.
Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 328 |
Release | : 2018-12-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464813604 |
The World Bank Group has two overarching goals: End extreme poverty by 2030 and promote shared prosperity by boosting the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the population in each economy. As this year’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity report documents, the world continues to make progress toward these goals. In 2015, approximately one-tenth of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, and the incomes of the bottom 40 percent rose in 77 percent of economies studied. But success cannot be taken for granted. Poverty remains high in Sub- Saharan Africa, as well as in fragile and conflict-affected states. At the same time, most of the world’s poor now live in middle-income countries, which tend to have higher national poverty lines. This year’s report tracks poverty comparisons at two higher poverty thresholds—$3.20 and $5.50 per day—which are typical of standards in lower- and upper-middle-income countries. In addition, the report introduces a societal poverty line based on each economy’s median income or consumption. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018: Piecing Together the Poverty Puzzle also recognizes that poverty is not only about income and consumption—and it introduces a multidimensional poverty measure that adds other factors, such as access to education, electricity, drinking water, and sanitation. It also explores how inequality within households could affect the global profile of the poor. All these additional pieces enrich our understanding of the poverty puzzle, bringing us closer to solving it. For more information, please visit worldbank.org/PSP