Potential Output
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| Author | : Sebastian Hauptmeier |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 201 |
| Release | : 2009-03-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3790821764 |
In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
| Author | : Mr.Alvar Kangur |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2019-09-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513512544 |
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
| Author | : Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 1999-07-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451851898 |
This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy immigration. Israel poses a challenge because traditional methods of measuring potential output assume relatively stable conditions over an extended period of time. We employ five methodologies to derive estimates and find that four of the measures imply the slowdown stems largely from reduced growth of potential output rather than a cyclical slowdown.
| Author | : Luc Eyraud |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 132 |
| Release | : 2018-04-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484350685 |
Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog
| Author | : Patrick Blagrave |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2015-04-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475565135 |
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
| Author | : Ms.Paula De Masi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 15 |
| Release | : 1997-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451974981 |
The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to develop and refine estimation techniques. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of IMF research on potential output, which has focused mainly on the industrial countries but more recently has addressed issues related to developing countries and countries in transition. It then discusses the approaches that country desk officers use for operational purposes, and presents estimates of potential output for the major industrial countries.
| Author | : Peter Lacy |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 265 |
| Release | : 2016-04-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1137530707 |
Waste to Wealth proves that 'green' and 'growth' need not be binary alternatives. The book examines five new business models that provide circular growth from deploying sustainable resources to the sharing economy before setting out what business leaders need to do to implement the models successfully.
| Author | : Michael D. Bordo |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 545 |
| Release | : 2013-06-28 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226066959 |
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
| Author | : John B. Taylor |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 460 |
| Release | : 2007-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226791262 |
This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
| Author | : Ali Alichi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 25 |
| Release | : 2017-05-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475598386 |
Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.
