Potential Housing Bubble with Chinese Characteristics

Potential Housing Bubble with Chinese Characteristics
Author: Xin Zhang (Ph. D.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 287
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis analyzes the potential housing bubble in the Chinese urban housing market. Using an operational model built on system dynamics (SD), it explores the unique housing market structures, information flows, key agents and their decision-making processes, and the system constraints that may contribute to the bubble forming phenomenon. Its SD models differ from intensive data-driven economic models. They are structural, operational, and focus on causal relationships. They can more easily accommodate non-market features and unique institutional components, where long-range historical data are not readily available. As the Chinese government heavily controls its housing markets, housing prices greatly depend on political decisions. The models incorporate the incentives and decisions of key agents in the market and have predictive power through simulation and scenario analysis. They can thus help decision-makers transform decisions, actively manage risks and opportunities, timely design and implement policies, and consequently change the system from within. This thesis specifically discusses three Chinese-specific features: 1. Rising housing price and the cap rate change; 2. High vacancy rates caused by speculators purchasing multiple housing units as money-storage investments they are unwilling to rent; 3. Land financing schemes where local governments rely on income from land sales to support their budgets which leads them to use their monopolistic position to short supply the land. The research design starts from the DiPasquale-Wheaton model (D-W) which Western urban economics theory has validated for analyzing housing cycles. It operationalizes this by: 1. Converting the D-W to a basic SD model; 2. Augmenting this with additional generic features; 3. Incorporating unique Chinese market features to create China-specific models; and then 4. Creating an integrated overarching model for conducting a case study using historical data of Nanjing, China. The result is one of the first operational models for the Chinese housing market that has the explanatory mechanisms and somehow overcomes the data availability issues. It provides an intuitive and transparent structure that we can easily modify to address complex issues. This thesis analyzes the potential housing bubble in the Chinese urban housing market. Using an operational model built on system dynamics (SD), it explores the unique housing market structures, information flows, key agents and their decision-making processes, and the system constraints that may contribute to the bubble forming phenomenon. Its SD models differ from intensive data-driven economic models. They are structural, operational, and focus on causal relationships. They can more easily accommodate non-market features and unique institutional components, where long-range historical data are not readily available. As the Chinese government heavily controls its housing markets, housing prices greatly depend on political decisions. The models incorporate the incentives and decisions of key agents in the market and have predictive power through simulation and scenario analysis. They can thus help decision-makers transform decisions, actively manage risks and opportunities, timely design and implement policies, and consequently change the system from within. This thesis specifically discusses three Chinese-specific features: 1. Rising housing price and the cap rate change; 2. High vacancy rates caused by speculators purchasing multiple housing units as money-storage investments they are unwilling to rent; 3. Land financing schemes where local governments rely on income from land sales to support their budgets which leads them to use their monopolistic position to shortsupply the land. The research design starts from the DiPasquale-Wheaton model (D-W) which Western urban economics theory has validated for analyzing housing cycles. It operationalizes this by: 1. Converting the D-W to a basic SD model; 2. Augmenting this with additional generic features; 3. Incorporating unique Chinese market features to create China-specific models; and then 4. Creating an integrated overarching model for conducting a case study using historical data of Nanjing, China. The result is one of the first operational models for the Chinese housing market that has the explanatory mechanisms and somehow overcomes the data availability issues. It provides an intuitive and transparent structure that we can easily modify to address complex issues.

A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics

A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics
Author: Edward Glaeser
Publisher:
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2016
Genre: Housing
ISBN:

Abstract: Chinese housing prices rose by over 10 percent per year in real terms between 2003 and 2014, and are now between two and ten times higher than the construction cost of apartments. At the same time, Chinese developers built 100 billion square feet of residential real estate. This boom has been accompanied by a large increase in the number of vacant homes, held by both developers and households. This boom may turn out to be a housing bubble followed by a crash, yet that future is far from certain. The demand for real estate in China is so strong that current prices might be sustainable, especially given the sparse alternative investments for Chinese households, so long as the level of new supply is radically curtailed. Whether that happens depends on the policies of the Chinese government, which must weigh the benefits of price stability against the costs of restricting urban growth

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 517
Release: 2016-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022639574X

This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market
Author: Richard Koss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2018-04-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484348559

The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market
Author: Richard Koss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2018-04-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484351460

The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

The Chinese Real Estate Market

The Chinese Real Estate Market
Author: Junjian Albert Cao
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 407
Release: 2015-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317934970

This is the first book to fully present, analyse and interpret the Chinese real estate market. Dr Junjian Albert Cao examines the Chinese real estate market’s growth trajectory, unique governance and factors affecting values and investment in the context of reforms, rapid economic growth and urbanization. The book provides essential insights into the institutional change surrounding the development of the property market, government intervention at local and national levels, taxes and other regulatory charges, and factors such as market practices, economic changes, government policies and social changes that affect the value of real estate. Furthermore, the book analyses academic and policy debates on issues such as: commercial property investment housing price inflation property rights protection affordable and social housing market practices and regulation environment and sustainability taxation property-led growth and the reliance of local economic growth on the property sector The book offers a comprehensive, in-depth and up-to-date account of the Chinese property market and presents a full assessment of the investment potential of Chinese real estate. It is a must read for students, academics and real estate professionals interested in this fascinating real estate market that has implications for Chinese and the world economies.

China's Housing Reform and Outcomes

China's Housing Reform and Outcomes
Author: Joyce Yanyun Man
Publisher: Lincoln Inst of Land Policy
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2011
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9781558442115

This in-depth volume explains China's residential construction boom and reviews how some established trends are likely to challenge its housing market in coming years. It draws on household surveys and public data in China and provides important lessons about housing policy for China and other countries.

China

China
Author: Thomas Orlik
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 241
Release: 2020
Genre: China
ISBN: 0190877405

A provocative perspective on the fragile fundamentals, and forces for resilience, in the Chinese economy, and a forecast for the future on alternate scenarios of collapse and ascendance.

Understanding China’s Real Estate Markets

Understanding China’s Real Estate Markets
Author: Bing Wang
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 312
Release: 2021-06-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030717488

China’s economy has been transforming rapidly over the last 25 years. As a result, Chinese conurbations have changed remarkably, with cities expanding both vertically and horizontally, and the physical environment acting as a medium for unprecedented urbanization. This has provided vast opportunities for investors, real estate developers, and service companies, but also presents huge challenges—as traditional city spaces have been reconfigured, environmental risks and the volatility of real estate markets increased. However, as engagement with China is becoming strategically important for many, forming a synthesized lens through which to read China across the vicissitudes of its real estate sector bears historic significance. By offering an insightful framework and structure for understanding China’s variegated real estate dynamics, players, and markets, Understanding China’s Real Estate Markets codifies the principles and practices of real estate development, finance, and investment in China and builds foundations for future academic research and practical knowledge in shaping and engaging the urban environment within China and beyond.

Is There a Housing Bubble in China?

Is There a Housing Bubble in China?
Author: Tianhao Zhi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two aspects. First, we investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from economic fundamentals by applying a standard Engle-Granger cointegration test. Second, we apply the Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect whether there is any evidence of unsustainable, self-reinforcing speculative behaviours amongst the price series. We propose that, given the heterogeneity that exists amongst cities with different types of bubble signatures, it is vital to conduct bubble diagnostic tests and implement relevant policies toward specific bubble characteristics, rather than enforcing one-that-fits-for-all type policy that does not take into account such heterogeneity.