Modeling Post-earthquake Restoration of the Los Angeles Water Supply System

Modeling Post-earthquake Restoration of the Los Angeles Water Supply System
Author: Taronne Harris Pearson Tabucchi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 254
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

The purpose of this thesis is to develop a discrete event simulation model of post-earthquake restoration for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) water supply system. Discrete event simulation, a new approach to modeling post-disaster lifeline restoration, offers many benefits for restoration modeling compared to alternative methods. The water supply system and restoration process are represented in great detail with few simplifications. The utility company's decision variables (e.g., number of repair crews, repair prioritization rules) are included explicitly, allowing exploration of their effects on the speed of the restoration. Restoration times are estimated separately for each region within the service area, and uncertainty in the process is modeled explicitly. With a service area of more than 1,200 km2 and 12,000 km of pipelines, the LADWP water supply system is the largest municipal system in the United States. Extensive review of the LADWP water organization, water supply system, and postearthquake restoration process was conducted. This review provided the basis for the restoration model. Crews, tasks, and the different phases in the restoration process came directly from discussions with LADWP personnel and the water organization's emergency response plans. For a particular earthquake, the restoration model takes as input information about damage to the system and the resulting hydraulic flow, both of which are provided by the Graphical Iterative Response Analysis for Flow Following Earthquakes (GIRAFFE) model that was developed for the LADWP system (Shi 2006, Wang 2006). Throughout the restoration simulation, the model interacts with GIRAFFE periodically in order to receive updates of the system functionality at specific times as the restoration process proceeds and damage is repaired. The restoration model provides several different types of output including system and subregion restoration curves; spatial distribution of restoration; material usage; crew usage; average time each customer is without water; and time to restore the system and subregions to 90%, 98%, and 100%. It can also include damage uncertainty by combining the output from runs for multiple realizations of damage associated with a single earthquake. The model can be used to help estimate economic and societal losses due to water supply system outages, and to evaluate the effectiveness of possible restoration improvement strategies. Ten simulations of the restoration model were run using real damage data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake as input, and the results were compared to the actual restoration that took place following Northridge. The average spatial distribution of restoration roughly matches what occurred in 1994. As in real life, the areas experiencing longer outages in the model are mainly in the north of the system service area or around the San Fernando Valley. The system restoration curves did not match exactly, as the range of outputs from all 10 runs of the restoration model shows that the restoration occurs too quickly, especially during the first day after the earthquake. Possible future model modifications that may improve the calibration are discussed. (Abstract).

Post-Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Post-Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction
Author: F.Y. Cheng
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 507
Release: 1996-10-14
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0080539300

Damage assessment, rehabilitation, decision-making, social consequences, repair and reconstruction; these are all critical factors for considerations following natural disasters such as earthquakes. In order to address these issues, the United States of America and the Peoples Republic of China regularly organize bilateral symposia/workshops to investigate multiple hazard mitigation, particularly with respect to earthquake engineering. This book contains state-of-the-art reports presented by world-renowned researchers at the US/PRC Sympsosium Workshop on Post-Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction held in Kunming, Yunnan, China, May 1995. The following key areas are addressed: damage assessment of structures after earthquakes; lessons of post-earthquake recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction, including public policy, land use options, urban planning, and design; issues in and examples of decision-making, and implementation of rehabilitation and reconstruction plans and policies; repair, strengthening, retrofit and control of structures and lifeline systems, post-earthquake socio-economic problems covering issues of relief and recovery; human and organizational behavior during emergency response, and strategies for improvement; real-time monitoring of earthquake response and damage.

Critical Issues and State-of-the-art in Lifeline Earthquake Engineering

Critical Issues and State-of-the-art in Lifeline Earthquake Engineering
Author: Anshel J. Schiff
Publisher:
Total Pages: 112
Release: 1995
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN:

Proceedings of the October 1995 session reviewing current practices and issues related to mitigating earthquake damage. The monograph's five contributions reflect developments since 1992 and the lessons learned from the Northridge and Kobe earthquakes. 5.5x8.5" Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Seismic Risk and Resilience Modeling of Water Distribution Systems

Seismic Risk and Resilience Modeling of Water Distribution Systems
Author: Agam Tomar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 146
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

Water distribution systems are vital to the well-being of communities because they contribute to the functionality of all other infrastructure and lifeline systems. Earthquakes and other natural hazards can cause damage to the components of a water distribution system, causing far-reaching socioeconomic consequences. This research begins with the development of an end-to-end simulation framework to model post-earthquake functional loss and restoration of a water system, which encompasses seismic hazard characterization, component damage assessment, hydraulic performance evaluation, and network restoration modeling. The modeling framework is validated using data from the 2014 South Napa Earthquake and extended to a hypothetical scenario. The end-to-end simulation framework is then extended to consider stochastic event set assessments of the water network using the UCERF2 (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2) earthquake rupture forecast model. Given that the end-to-end performance evaluation of distributed infrastructure for a large set of events is computationally expensive, a framework that uses Active learning to select a subset of ground motion maps and associated occurrence rates that reasonably estimates the water network risk is also developed. To deal with the temporal complexities that are embedded in the post-earthquake restoration process, a dynamic updating methodology is developed to reduce uncertainties in the outcomes of post-event recovery forecasts using Bayesian Inferencing, by exploiting real-time data. The specific example of updating predictions (post-earthquake functional recovery forecasts including total recovery time and complete recovery trajectory) is presented and validated on a real pipe network (Napa water system) and event (2014 earthquake and recovery). Ultimately, the frameworks and models developed as part of this work can inform risk-based decision making and resilience planning of water networks and other lifeline systems.

Optimizing Post-earthquake Lifeline System Reliability

Optimizing Post-earthquake Lifeline System Reliability
Author: William M. Elliott
Publisher:
Total Pages: 1044
Release: 1999
Genre: Social Science
ISBN:

TCLEE Monograph 16 presents more than 100 papers from the Fifth U.S. Conference on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering, held in Seattle, Washington, August 12-14, 1999.

Probabilistic Post-earthquake Restoration Process with Repair Prioritization of Highway Network System for Disaster Resilience Enhancement

Probabilistic Post-earthquake Restoration Process with Repair Prioritization of Highway Network System for Disaster Resilience Enhancement
Author: Tsutomu Nifuku
Publisher:
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN: 9781321646344

Comprehensive realization of post-earthquake restoration process for highway network considering repair prioritization are necessary for preparing effective countermeasures to restore transportation service and social activity in seismically active and automobile dependent regions like broader Los Angeles area quickly. Since the progress and the time to achieve full-recovery realistically change depending on repair orders and reconstruction works, restoration strategies without taking into account actual restoration phenomena negatively affect decision-making, efficient recovery, damage mitigation effort and network resilience enhancement. For dealing with these concerns, a probabilistic model to simulate post-earthquake restoration process of highway network is developed with consideration of repair prioritization and reconstruction constraint in this research. Analytic Hierarchy Process, prioritizing algorithm, is used to decide bridge repair orders based on initial damage state due to earthquake and priority weight of four criteria; difficulty, importance, urgency and cost. Numbers of available construction labor around the target region is applied for constraint of repair work progress. The recovery passage of bridge, the critical component of highway restoration process, is modeled probabilistically based on Markov Chain process, Uniform distribution and Normal distribution. As performance of highway network, drivers' delay and trip opportunity loss over entire recovery period are estimated by conducting traffic network analysis through origin-destination matrix, gravity model and user equilibrium model considering the models of trip reduction and traffic demand recovery. The adequacy of developed model is then verified by the documented recovery records and loss estimations of Northridge earthquake. As an application study, a regional possible scenario earthquake is applied to the established methodology implemented in the highway network system of Los Angeles and Orange counties. A number of simulations through Monte Carlo technique to express restoration processes corresponding to several repair prioritizations are presented by restoration curves and loss estimations. The analyzed results show that the developed procedure can simulate numerous thinkable recovery scenarios according to repair orders and contribute to decision-making for choosing the best suited repair prioritization for minimizing loss and maximizing resilience. Moreover, the basic scheme of this innovative technique can be applied to evaluation of restoration process of other infrastructure network systems and other disasters.

Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems

Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems
Author: Mohamed E. El-Hawary
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 323
Release: 2017-06-21
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1119309778

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.

Managing the Complexity of Critical Infrastructures

Managing the Complexity of Critical Infrastructures
Author: Roberto Setola
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2017-02-10
Genre: Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN: 3319510436

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book summarizes work being pursued in the context of the CIPRNet (Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research Network) research project, co-funded by the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). The project is intended to provide concrete and on-going support to the Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) research communities, enhancing their preparedness for CI-related emergencies, while also providing expertise and technologies for other stakeholders to promote their understanding and mitigation of the consequences of CI disruptions, leading to enhanced resilience. The book collects the tutorial material developed by the authors for several courses on the modelling, simulation and analysis of CIs, representing extensive and integrated CIP expertise. It will help CI stakeholders, CI operators and civil protection authorities understand the complex system of CIs, and help them adapt to these changes and threats in order to be as prepared as possible for mitigating emergencies and crises affecting or arising from CIs.