Portfolio Strategies Based on Analysts' Consensus

Portfolio Strategies Based on Analysts' Consensus
Author: Enrico Maria Cervellati
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

Financial analysts' research activity seems to be important for investors in their investment decisions. Understanding if financial analysts' reports can influence the market and the degree of reliability of their forecasts has been a theme lively debated in the academic literature but also in the press, mainly because of recent financial scandals. The main objective of the paper is to calculate the investment value of financial analysts' recommendations on companies listed in the Italian Stock Exchange and to empirically verify the possibility of profiting from relying on the average consensus of recommendations. We have enclosed in the analysis all the 16,634 reports issued between the 1st January 1999 and the 23rd July 2004 and available on the website of the Italian Stock Exchange. We have classified companies by quarter, based on the average consensus by analysts, and we have formed five portfolios based on this consensus. Furthermore, we have calculated the excess returns of each portfolio in each quarter. Our results seem to suggest that analysts' rating have indeed investment value, even if investors should carefully consider neutral recommendations that in reality seem to be negative one. These results also give some interesting regulatory suggestions.

Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Consensus Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns

Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Consensus Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns
Author: Brad M. Barber
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we document that an investment strategy based on the consensus (average) analyst recommendations of security analysts earns positive returns. For the period 1986-1996, a portfolio of stocks most highly recommended by analysts earned an annualized geometric mean return of 18.8 percent, while a portfolio of stocks least favorably recommended earned only 5.78 percent. (In comparison, an investment in a value-weighted market index earned an annualized geometric mean return of 14.5 percent.) Alternatively stated, purchasing stocks most highly recommended yielded a return of 102 basis points per month. The magnitude of this return is surprisingly large, and is far greater than the size effect (negative 16 basis points) and book-to-market effect (17 basis points) for the same period. Even after controlling for these two effects, as well as for price momentum, we show that the strategy of purchasing stocks most highly recommended and selling short those least favorably recommended yielded a return of 75 basis points per month. These results are robust to partitions by time period and overall market direction, and are most pronounced for small and medium-sized firms. The abnormal returns also persist when we allow a lapse of up to 15 days before acting on the investment recommendations. There is no extant theory of asset pricing that explains these results.

Ahead of the Market

Ahead of the Market
Author: Mitch Zacks
Publisher: Harper Collins
Total Pages: 306
Release: 2009-03-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0061738794

Beat the Pros at Their Own Game All too often, you learn about good stocks far too late to profit from the information. By the time you actually buy a stock, professional investors have already been there, bought the stock, driven up the price, and are just waiting to unload it at an inflated price. All That's About to Change. . . . In Ahead of the Market, Mitch Zacks shows investors how they can spot stocks that are poised to take off long before the rest of the crowd learns about them. How? By unlocking the gems of priceless information buried in Wall Street's often self-serving research. Ahead of the Market is the first book, ever, that enables you to profitably use the analyst stock research for which Wall Street firms pay more than one billion dollars annually. Many investors have rightly felt misled in the past by analysts who continued to hype stocks as prices plummeted. You may have even concluded that Wall Street research is totally worthless. But it's not. In Ahead of the Market, Mitch Zacks shows that analysts actually provide a wealth of market-moving information that can generate exceptional returns if interpreted correctly.The key is to use the research produced by Wall Street analysts the same way the professional money managers do. Pioneered by the firm Zacks Investment Research and based on more than twenty years of intensive analysis, the investment strategies revealed in this book are indeed the same ones used by successful professional investors everywhere. In these pages you will learn how to form an investment plan by locating stocks that are poised for price appreciation and avoiding stocks heading for a fall. Zacks shows how you could have prevented being burned when the recent bubble burst, if you had known how to use analyst research correctly and teaches you the rules of the research game so you will not fall victim the next time around. In sum, this book is your guide to picking the right stock at the right time. Mitch Zacks's groundbreaking research provides new insights and new strategies to: Use revisions to analysts' earnings estimates to predict the rise and fall of stock prices Interpret the real meaning behind analysts' stock recommendations Employ the "cockroach" phenomenon and other methodologies to predict earnings surprises before they occur Determine how to react when a company reports earnings and how to profit from "post-earnings announcement drift" Understand and profit from "analyst creep"—the reason that earnings estimate revisions occur incrementally over time Avoid being duped by the games that companies play with their earnings reportsWhether the economy is healthy or stalled, whether the market is up or down, by focusing on the strategies contained in this book you will always come out ahead. Well-picked individual stocks will always carry the day. Now with Ahead of the Market, you will finally have the same tools institutional investors have and will be able to find great stocks in any market environment.

Price-Based Investment Strategies

Price-Based Investment Strategies
Author: Adam Zaremba
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 325
Release: 2018-07-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319915304

This compelling book examines the price-based revolution in investing, showing how research over recent decades has reinvented technical analysis. The authors discuss the major groups of price-based strategies, considering their theoretical motivation, individual and combined implementation, and back-tested results when applied to investment across country stock markets. Containing a comprehensive sample of performance data, taken from 24 major developed markets around the world and ranging over the last 25 years, the authors construct practical portfolios and display their performance—ensuring the book is not only academically rigorous, but practically applicable too. This is a highly useful volume that will be of relevance to researchers and students working in the field of price-based investing, as well as individual investors, fund pickers, market analysts, fund managers, pension fund consultants, hedge fund portfolio managers, endowment chief investment officers, futures traders, and family office investors.

Do Analyst Recommendations Add Value?

Do Analyst Recommendations Add Value?
Author: Maximilian Kaessens
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper empirically investigates the value added by sell-side analyst recommendations on German equities composing the HDAX index from January 2006 through December 2013. Partitioning the equities into five portfolios based on either recommendation consensus level or consensus change, we examine differences in future returns by means of regression analysis. The portfolio of highest rated stocks consistently outperforms the portfolio of lowest rated stocks for both quintile portfolio formation and categorical formation based on absolute cut-offs. Testing several investment strategies, we find monthly abnormal returns of 1.14% and 1.84% for consensus level strategies with quintile portfolio formation and categorical portfolio formation, respectively. In comparison a quintile consensus change strategy yields monthly abnormal returns of 0.56% after controlling for market risk premium, size, book-to-market ratio, and price momentum. Positive abnormal returns are diminished but persist after controlling for transaction costs. Post transaction costs profits amount to 0.48% and 1.02% monthly, for consensus level strategies based on quintile and categorical portfolio formation, respectively.

Modern Portfolio Management

Modern Portfolio Management
Author: Martin L. Leibowitz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 504
Release: 2009-01-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470484942

Active 130/30 Extensions is the newest wave of disciplined investment strategies that involves asymmetric decision-making on long/short portfolio decisions, concentrated investment risk-taking in contrast to diversification, systematic portfolio risk management, and flexibility in portfolio design. This strategy is the building block for a number of 130/30 and 120/20 investment strategies offered to institutional and sophisticated high net worth individual investors who want to manage their portfolios actively and aggressively to outperform the market.

The Little Book of Stock Market Profits

The Little Book of Stock Market Profits
Author: Mitch Zacks
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2011-10-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118192419

A timely guide to making the best investment strategies even better A wide variety of strategies have been identified over the years, which purportedly outperform the stock market. Some of these include buying undervalued stocks while others rely on technical analysis techniques. It's fair to say no one method is fool proof and most go through both up and down periods. The challenge for an investor is picking the right method at the right time. The Little Book of Stock Market Profits shows you how to achieve this elusive goal and make the most of your time in today's markets. Written by Mitch Zacks, Senior Portfolio Manager of Zacks Investment Management, this latest title in the Little Book series reveals stock market strategies that really work and then shows you how they can be made even better. It skillfully highlights earnings-based investing strategies, the hallmark of the Zacks process, but it also identifies strategies based on valuations, seasonal patterns and price momentum. Specifically, the book: Identifies stock market investment strategies that work, those that don't, and what it takes for an individual investor to truly succeed in today's dynamic market Discusses how the performance of each strategy examined can be improved by combining into them into a multifactor approach Gives investors a clear path to integrating the best investment strategies of all time into their own personal portfolio Investing can be difficult, but with the right strategies you can improve your overall performance. The Little book of Stock Market Profits will show you how.

Best Practices for Equity Research (PB)

Best Practices for Equity Research (PB)
Author: James Valentine
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Total Pages: 465
Release: 2011-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0071736395

The first real-world guide for training equity research analysts—from a Morgan Stanley veteran Addresses the dearth of practical training materials for research analysts in the U.S. and globally Valentine managed a department of 70 analysts and 100 associates at Morgan Stanley and developed new programs for over 500 employees around the globe He will promote the book through his company's extensive outreach capabilities

Asset Pricing, Real Estate and Public Finance over the Crisis

Asset Pricing, Real Estate and Public Finance over the Crisis
Author: A. Carretta
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 314
Release: 2013-02-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137293772

The current financial crisis started from the US real estate market and after, though the increase of risk premium requested by investors and due to the lack of liquidity of all financial markets, it became a world financial crisis. A detailed analysis during the crisis focuses attention on asset management, the real estate and public sector.