Multi-period Portfolio Optimization with Investor Views Under Regime Switching

Multi-period Portfolio Optimization with Investor Views Under Regime Switching
Author: Razvan Gabriel Oprisor
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

We propose a novel multi-period trading model that allows portfolio managers to perform optimal portfolio allocation while incorporating their interpretable investment views. This model's significant advantage is its incorporation of the latest asset return regimes to quantitatively solve managers' question: how certain should one be that a given investment view is occurring? First, we describe a framework for multi-period portfolio allocation formulated as a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk and transaction costs. Second, we use the Black-Litterman model to combine investment views specified in a simple linear combination based format with the market portfolio. A data-driven method to adjust the confidence in the manager's views by comparing them to dynamically updated regime-switching forecasts is proposed. Our contribution is to incorporate both multi-period trading and interpretable investment views into one efficient framework and offer a novel method of using regime-switching to determine each view's confidence.

Asset Allocation Using Regime Switching Methods

Asset Allocation Using Regime Switching Methods
Author: Sarthak Garg
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

The aim of this thesis is to develop a Markov Regime Switching framework that can be used in asset allocation in conjunction with Modern Portfolio Theory. Modern Portfolio Theory has long been a popular tool among big financial institutions. However, one of its major limitations is assumption of stationary market volatility. In this paper, we develop a single period Mean Variance Optimization model that minimizes the variance of a portfolio subject to a specified expected return by combining Modern Portfolio Theory with a Markov Regime Switching framework. Then, we extend the above developed framework to be used in conjunction with a robust optimization framework as proposed by Goldfarb Iyengar in which regards we were partially successful. The portfolios constructed by the Markov Regime-Switching framework were tested out of sample to outperform those suggested by a Simple MVO One Factor model and the Robust MVO One Factor Model.

A Regime-Switching Factor Model for Mean-Variance Optimization

A Regime-Switching Factor Model for Mean-Variance Optimization
Author: Giorgio Costa
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

We formulate a novel Markov regime-switching factor model to describe the cyclical nature of asset returns in modern financial markets. Maintaining a factor model structure allows us to easily derive the asset expected returns and their corresponding covariance matrix. By design, these two parameters are calibrated to better describe the properties of the different market regimes. In turn, these regime-dependent parameters serve as the inputs during mean-variance optimization, thereby constructing portfolios adapted to the current market environment. Through this formulation, the proposed model allows for the construction of large, realistic portfolios at no additional computational cost during optimization. Moreover, the viability of this model can be significantly improved by periodically re-balancing the portfolio, ensuring proper alignment between the estimated parameters and the transient market regimes. An out-of-sample computational experiment over a long investment horizon shows that the proposed regime-dependent portfolios are better aligned with the market environment, yielding a higher ex post rate of return and lower volatility than competing portfolios.

Multi-Period Trading Via Convex Optimization

Multi-Period Trading Via Convex Optimization
Author: Stephen Boyd
Publisher:
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2017-07-28
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9781680833287

This monograph collects in one place the basic definitions, a careful description of the model, and discussion of how convex optimization can be used in multi-period trading, all in a common notation and framework.

Portfolio Optimization in the Financial Market with Regime Switching Under Constraints, Transaction Costs and Different Rates for Borrowing and Lending

Portfolio Optimization in the Financial Market with Regime Switching Under Constraints, Transaction Costs and Different Rates for Borrowing and Lending
Author: Vladimir Dombrovskii
Publisher:
Total Pages: 8
Release: 2014
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ISBN:

In this work, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem under hard constraints on trading amounts, transaction costs and different rates for borrowing and lending when the dynamics of the risky asset returns are governed by a discrete-time approximation of the Markov-modulated geometric Brownian motion. The states of Markov chain are interpreted as the states of an economy. The problem is stated as a dynamic tracking problem of a reference portfolio with desired return. Our approach is tested on a set of a real data from Russian Stock Exchange MICEX.

Strategic Asset Allocation and Markov Regime Switch with GARCH Model

Strategic Asset Allocation and Markov Regime Switch with GARCH Model
Author: Ph.D. Simi (Wei)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
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ISBN:

During the financial crisis of 2008, the S&P 500 Implied Volatility Index (VIX), known as the “fear gauge”, jumped to 80% of the highest level it has ever reached. Portfolio managers faced tremendous pressures in these environments of such high levels market volatility. Because it is well known that asset allocation dominates portfolio performances, this paper focuses on asset allocation strategies. It develops a strategic asset allocation solution for portfolio management under all conditions and at all levels of market volatility. The approach is to derive a dynamic optimal portfolio that is based on the well-known asset allocation Black-Litterman [1991, 1992] framework. In addition, this paper proposes a methodology that considers the features of volatility regime-switching over time. This new strategic framework allows portfolio managers to derive a systematically optimal portfolio in a timely, accurate fashion.

Convex Duality in Constrained Mean-variance Portfolio Optimization Under a Regime-switching Model

Convex Duality in Constrained Mean-variance Portfolio Optimization Under a Regime-switching Model
Author: Catherine Donnelly
Publisher:
Total Pages: 203
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

In this thesis, we solve a mean-variance portfolio optimization problem with portfolio constraints under a regime-switching model. Specifically, we seek a portfolio process which minimizes the variance of the terminal wealth, subject to a terminal wealth constraint and convex portfolio constraints. The regime-switching is modeled using a finite state space, continuous-time Markov chain and the market parameters are allowed to be random processes. The solution to this problem is of interest to investors in financial markets, such as pension funds, insurance companies and individuals. We establish the existence and characterization of the solution to the given problem using a convex duality method. We encode the constraints on the given problem as static penalty functions in order to derive the primal problem. Next, we synthesize the dual problem from the primal problem using convex conjugate functions. We show that the solution to the dual problem exists. From the construction of the dual problem, we find a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for the primal and dual problems to each have a solution. Using these conditions, we can show the existence of the solution to the given problem and characterize it in terms of the market parameters and the solution to the dual problem. The results of the thesis lay the foundation to find an actual solution to the given problem, by looking at specific examples. If we can find the solution to the dual problem for a specific example, then, using the characterization of the solution to the given problem, we may be able to find the actual solution to the specific example. In order to use the convex duality method, we have to prove a martingale representation theorem for processes which are locally square-integrable martingales with respect to the filtration generated by a Brownian motion and a finite state space, continuous-time Markov chain. This result may be of interest in problems involving regime-switching models which require a martingale representation theorem.