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| Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 433 |
| Release | : 2005-12-21 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0306473720 |
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
| Author | : Henk A. De Gans |
| Publisher | : Rozenberg Publishers |
| Total Pages | : 288 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 9051707479 |
This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d
| Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 417 |
| Release | : 2013-12-16 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 9400775512 |
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
| Author | : Richard Irwin |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 102 |
| Release | : 1977 |
| Genre | : Population forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : United Nations Publications |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9789211483161 |
The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.
| Author | : Achim Goerres |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 459 |
| Release | : 2021-08-10 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 3030730654 |
This open access book draws the big picture of how population change interplays with politics across the world from 1990 to 2040. Leading social scientists from a wide range of disciplines discuss, for the first time, all major political and policy aspects of population change as they play out differently in each major world region: North and South America; Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region; Western and East Central Europe; Russia, Belarus and Ukraine; East Asia; Southeast Asia; subcontinental India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; Australia and New Zealand. These macro-regional analyses are completed by cross-cutting global analyses of migration, religion and poverty, and age profiles and intra-state conflicts. From all angles, this book shows how strongly contextualized the political management and the political consequences of population change are. While long-term population ageing and short-term migration fluctuations present structural conditions, political actors play a key role in (mis-)managing, manipulating, and (under-)planning population change, which in turn determines how citizens in different groups react.
| Author | : Jack A. Goldstone |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press, USA |
| Total Pages | : 344 |
| Release | : 2012-08-16 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0199945969 |
The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media. "Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign-policy direction." Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.
| Author | : Virginia Abernethy |
| Publisher | : Transaction Publishers |
| Total Pages | : 404 |
| Release | : |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9781412831574 |
International efforts to regulate fertility rates so that populations do not grow beyond the earth's capacity have included technical assistance and capital; improved health care conditions to lower the risk of infant mortality; increased opportunities to develop literacy; the democratization of governments; and several decades of liberal immigration and refugee policies favoring third world nations. The persistence of high fertility despite international efforts confounds demographers. "Population Politics" brilliantly dissects the paradigm responsible for the counterproductive efforts of nations and international agencies. Abernethy, a renowned anthropologist, shows why policies hamper the shift to lower fertility. Ireland, Indonesia, Cuba, China, Turkey and Egypt are but a few of the countries Abernethy examines, showing how economic, sociocultural, and agricultural factors that have caused population growth can be harnessed to stabilize population size. "Population Politics" is a provocative examination of the influence of aid and liberal immigration policies on world population growth, and often counterproductive to the role of the United States as an industrial power. This volume's uniquely interdisciplinary perspective will enlighten the lay reader, as well as demographers and epidemiologists, conservationists, reproduction and family specialists, agricultural economists, and public health personnel. "Addresses one of the most vexing issues of our time--why after five or more decades of helping' poor countries improve their standard of living, is poverty still the rule? In light of Abernethy's facts, leaders in the United States cannot be excused from rethinking policies with respect to immigration and foreign aid. This book provides a fresh look at classic and neoclassic views of overpopulation."--Kingsley Davis, The Hoover Institution, Stanford, California "A splendid critique of how U.S. foreign aid and liberal immigration [policy] result in population growth here and abroad."--Donald L. Huddle, Rice University, Houston, Texas "Virginia D. Abernethy" is professor emeritus of psychiatry (anthropology) at Vanderbilt Medical School and was for 11 years the editor of the scholarly journal "Population and Environment. "Garrett Hardin" is emeritus professor of human ecology in the Department of Biological Sciences and the University of California, Santa Barbara.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 369 |
| Release | : 2000-10-11 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0309069904 |
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
| Author | : Virginia Abernethy |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 285 |
| Release | : 2018-05-11 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1351320823 |
International efforts to regulate fertility rates so that populations do not grow beyond the earth's capacity have included technical assistance and capital; improved health care conditions to lower the risk of infant mortality; increased opportunities to develop literacy; the democratization of governments; and several decades of liberal immigration and refugee policies favoring third world nations. The persistence of high fertility despite international efforts confounds demographers. 'Population Politics' brilliantly dissects the paradigm responsible for the counterproductive efforts of nations and international agencies. Abernethy, a renowned anthropologist, shows why policies hamper the shift to lower fertility. Ireland, Indonesia, Cuba, China, Turkey and Egypt are but a few of the countries Abernethy examines, showing how economic, sociocultural, and agricultural factors that have caused population growth can be harnessed to stabilize population size. 'Population Politics' is a provocative examination of the influence of aid and liberal immigration policies on world population growth, and often counterproductive to the role of the United States as an industrial power. This volume's uniquely interdisciplinary perspective will enlighten the lay reader, as well as demographers and epidemiologists, conservationists, reproduction and family specialists, agricultural economists, and public health personnel. Virginia D. Abernethy is professor emeritus of psychiatry (anthropology) at Vanderbilt Medical School and was for 11 years the editor of the scholarly journal 'Population and Environment. Garrett Hardin is emeritus professor of human ecology in the Department of Biological Sciences and the University of California, Santa Barbara.
