Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks
Author: Lutz Kilian
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2009
Genre: Financial crises
ISBN:

"A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of energy price shocks are misspecified, resulting in inconsistent parameter estimates, and that the implied impulse responses have been routinely computed incorrectly. As a result, the quantitative importance of unanticipated energy price increases for the U.S. economy has been exaggerated. In response to this problem, we develop alternative regression models and methods of computing responses to energy price shocks that yield consistent estimates regardless of the degree of asymmetry. We also introduce improved tests of the null hypothesis of symmetry in the responses to energy price increases and decreases. An empirical study reveals little evidence against the null hypothesis of symmetry in the responses to energy price shocks. Our analysis also has direct implications for the theoretical literature on the transmission of energy price shocks and for the debate about policy responses to energy price shocks"--P. 1.

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information
Author: Tao Wu
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2010-10
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1437935583

The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.

Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
Author: Martin Bodenstein
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2011-04
Genre: Reference
ISBN: 1437980503

Beginning in 2009, in many advanced economies, policy rates reached their zero lower bound (ZLB). Almost at the same time, oil prices started rising again. The authors analyze how the ZLB affects the propagation of oil shocks. As these shocks move inflation and output in opposite directions, their effects on economic activity are cushioned when monetary policy is constrained. The burst of inflation from an oil price increase lowers real interest rates at the ZLB and stimulates theinterest-sensitive component of GDP, offsetting the usual contractionary effects. In fact, if the increase in oil prices is gradual, the persistent rise in inflation can cause a GDP expansion. Illus. This is a print on demand report.

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 663
Release: 2010-03-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226278875

United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

Artificial Intelligence in Forecasting

Artificial Intelligence in Forecasting
Author: Sachi Mohanty
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 365
Release: 2024-07-19
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1040051502

Forecasting deals with the uncertainty of the future. To be effective, forecasting models should be timely available, accurate, reliable, and compatible with existing database. Accurate projection of the future is of vital importance in supply chain management, inventory control, economic condition, technology, growth trend, social change, political change, business, weather forecasting, stock price prediction, earthquake prediction, etc. AI powered tools and techniques of forecasting play a major role in improving the projection accuracy. The software running AI forecasting models use machine learning to improve accuracy. The software can analyse the past data and can make better prediction about the future trends with higher accuracy and confidence that favours for making proper future planning and decision. In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the matching of models to historical data. The book covers the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. Readers will also be familiarised with the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation
Author: Alan S. Blinder
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 244
Release: 2013-09-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1483264564

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.

The Effects of Foreign Shocks when Interest Rates are at Zero

The Effects of Foreign Shocks when Interest Rates are at Zero
Author: Martin Bodenstein
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2009
Genre: Equilibrium (Economics)
ISBN:

In a two-country DSGE model, the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound for policy interest rates. This result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the United States. The duration of the liquidity trap is determined endogenously. Adverse foreign shocks can extend the duration of the liquidity trap, implying more contractionary effects for the home country; conversely, large positive shocks can prompt an early exit, implying effects that are closer to those when the zero bound constraint is not binding.

The Puzzling Peso

The Puzzling Peso
Author: Carlos Arteta
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2008
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso's behavior: During periods when the U.S. dollar has risen (fallen) against other major currencies such as the euro, the peso has risen (fallen) against the dollar. Very few other currencies display this behavior. In this paper, we attempt to explain the unusual pattern of the peso's correlation with the dollar by developing some general empirical models of exchange rate correlations. Based on a study of 29 currencies, we find that most of the cross-country variation in exchange rate correlations with the dollar and the euro can be explained by just a few variables. First, a country's currency is more likely to rise against the dollar as the dollar rises against the euro, the closer it is to the United States and the farther it is from the euro area. In this result, distance likely proxies for the role of economic integration in affecting exchange rate correlations. Second, and perhaps more surprisingly, a country's currency is more likely to exhibit this unusual pattern when its sovereign credit rating is more risky. This may reflect that currencies of riskier countries are less substitutable in investor portfolios than those of better-rated countries. All told, these factors well explain the peso's unusual behavior, as Mexico both is very close to the United States and has a lower credit rating than most industrial economies.

Rise of the Machines

Rise of the Machines
Author: Alain P. Chaboud
Publisher:
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2009
Genre: Electronic trading of securities
ISBN:

We study the impact that algorithmic trading, computers directly interfacing at high frequency with trading platforms, has had on price discovery and volatility in the foreign exchange market. Our dataset represents a majority of global interdealer trading in three major currency pairs in 2006 and 2007. Importantly, it contains precise observations of the size and the direction of the computer-generated and human-generated trades each minute.